Taliban militants could use Americans who are still in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of U.S. forces as leverage over President Joe Biden, lawmakers and foreign officials predict.
“Stop calling them American citizens ‘stuck’ or ‘stranded’ in Afghanistan, and call them what they are, which is Taliban hostages,” Rep. Mike Waltz, a Florida Republican and Army veteran who deployed in Afghanistan, told the Washington Examiner. “We’ve just handed the Taliban a mountain of leverage on a silver platter.”
U.S. officials have raced to minimize that risk through an evacuation effort that saw approximately 6,000 Americans leave Afghanistan. Yet, hundreds of other Americans remain in the country — a mix of citizens who chose to stay or could not get out before the deadline for the U.S. withdrawal. That population, in combination with what is believed to be thousands of Afghan nationals in danger for their previous work with the U.S. government, could face the ordeal of a massive, decentralized hostage situation.
“The Taliban wants to humiliate the U.S. as it withdraws, impede the ability of American citizens and Afghans to leave, and then use Americans as bargaining chips to further humiliate [the United States],” Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal editor Bill Roggio said. “As well as extract concessions such as getting leaders off of sanctions lists, release [Guantanamo Bay] detainees, etc.”
STATE DEPARTMENT: TALIBAN INFORMATION-SHARING DID NOT ‘EXPOSE ANYONE TO ADDITIONAL RISK’
State Department officials did not provide an exact tally of how many Americans remain in the country as of Monday.
“We believe there are still a small number of Americans — under 200, and likely closer to 100 — who remain in Afghanistan and want to leave,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Monday evening address, following the end of the evacuation operation. “We’re trying to determine exactly how many.”
That calculation is complicated by the number of “dual citizen Americans with deep roots and extended families in Afghanistan,” he added. A State Department bulletin released Sunday noted there is “a group of roughly 280 individuals who have self-identified as Americans in Afghanistan but who remain undecided about whether to leave the country or who have told us they do not intend to depart.”
Some of the Americans who chose to stay did so because Taliban militants prevented their family members from accompanying them to the airport if they were not also U.S. citizens.
“For many, it’s a painful choice,” Blinken said of Americans with extended family in Afghanistan. “If an American in Afghanistan tells us that they want to stay for now, and then in a week, or a month, or a year, they reach out to say, ‘I’ve changed my mind,’ then we will help them leave.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has touted Taliban promises to allow “safe passage” for Americans and Afghans who worked with the United States. Secretary of State Antony Blinken maintains the U.S. has “significant leverage … to incentivize the Taliban” to keep that pledge.
“We will use every diplomatic, economic assistance tool at our disposal working hand-in-hand with the international community, first and foremost to ensure that those who want to leave Afghanistan after the 31st are able to do so,” Blinken said earlier this week. “As well as to deal with other issues that we need to be focused on, including counterterrorism and humanitarian assistance and expectations of a future Afghan government.”
Waltz doubts that assessment, partly because the Taliban has failed to release Navy veteran Mark Frerichs, who disappeared in February of 2020 — the same month then-President Donald Trump’s administration signed the U.S.-Taliban peace deal that set the stage for the eventual U.S. withdrawal.
“The thing they wanted the most, for 20 years, was American military forces to leave,” he said. “One would have thought that, in exchange, we could get one Navy veteran back for that.”
Such recalcitrance by the Taliban puts an extra burden on U.S. intelligence and even private-sector operations “running ratlines,” as one Heritage Foundation analyst put it, to help people escape under the noses of the Taliban.
“I don’t know if there’s a one-size-fits-all answer,” the Heritage Foundation’s James Carafano said. “The problem is, is essentially all these people are basically just money in the bank, right? The Taliban has lots of options here. Let some people go, and the Americans owe you a favor. Turn some people over to ISIS or al Qaeda and let the Americans look helpless … it’s a target-rich environment.”
A senior State Department official declined to share details about U.S. efforts to secure Frerich’s release, beyond emphasizing that “his safe return is a top priority for us” and said U.S. officials would explore “all possible consular options” to coordinate the departure of people in the country who have a claim upon the U.S. government.
“Because some of these individuals may be at risk, it doesn’t do us or them any good to speak to tactics that we may be using, we may be exploring,” the senior State Department official said, noting they are trying to arrange for the airport to reopen at some point now that U.S. forces have withdrawn. “But obviously, an airport is not the only way to have people leave the country.”
The effectiveness of such efforts could have wide-ranging ramifications, not only as a humanitarian matter for the people involved but also for Taliban options to apply pressure to U.S. policymakers.
“Where the administration’s approach is so flawed is, they believe they have leverage over the Taliban to continue to allow safe passage — it’s the other way around,” Waltz said. “Every time they want access to currency reserves, foreign assistance, economic assistance, international legitimacy, they have that leverage. They have that dial to dial up or dial back.”
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An Indo-Pacific intelligence official echoed that assessment.
“The Taliban will use any American nationals left behind as leverage [for] ransom,” an Indo-Pacific intelligence official said. “I get a feeling that the Taliban senses that recognition in some form or other is inevitable. I would be happy to be proven wrong.”
