The monthslong coronavirus outbreak has exposed just how unprepared, unequipped, and scattershot Washington is in the midst of a pandemic. After this crisis is over, both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue will have a responsibility to review their performance, search for lessons, and apply those lessons in preparation for a similar scenario in the future.
Yet we would all be served by not overhyping the situation into something it is not: the dawning of a new age in international affairs in which the United States is losing its luster, Washington’s adversaries are pressing the envelope to see what they can get away with, and strategic competitors such as Russia and China are filling the void. Talk of the U.S. declining on the world stage is vastly overstated and ignores just how devastating this virus has been around the world.
Nearly every country on the planet is struggling to manage this pandemic.
Even before COVID-19 hit Russia, Vladimir Putin was confronting a less-than-stellar economic situation in his country. At $1.7 trillion, Russia, a country with approximately 145 million people, boasted a gross domestic product smaller than that of Italy and South Korea, both of which were already going through years of economic turbulence. Russia was a risky place to do business. Russians were just as likely to park money in European banks and real estate as they were to attract foreign direct investment.
The virus has only further complicated matters for the Kremlin. As much as Putin likes to depict himself as the clever strongman effortlessly in charge, the former KGB operative is now facing an economic contraction that could cause a considerable dent in his popular support. The International Monetary Fund projects the Russian economy will lose 5.5% of its GDP this year. Russia’s small-business owners could go bankrupt if Moscow doesn’t fill the breach with financial support. Russia’s finance minister has warned that at a rate of $300 million per day, the Kremlin could spend nearly half of its $165 billion savings fund this year. Ordinary Russians in the countryside are getting fed up with the Kremlin’s incompetence.
Far from being the duplicitous, geostrategic genius he is often portrayed as in the West, Putin is increasingly looking like the old, out-of-touch Soviet Politburo official who is locked up safely in his villa and isolated from the reality swirling around him.
China may be in even worse shape. Beijing’s obfuscation of information about the virus and its desperation to be seen as a benevolent power is severely hurting its global reputation. Economically, China experienced its first economic contraction in decades (the Chinese economy shrunk by 6.8% in the first quarter). But the real damage is being done geopolitically, where more and more countries in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia are opening their eyes to what has been years of Chinese predatory economic practices and diplomatic pressure tactics.
The aggressiveness of China’s diplomatic corps in parroting the Chinese Communist Party’s narrative is grating on the very same European governments that were open to Beijing’s entreaties in more ordinary times. Disinformation that would normally be dismissed as the business-as-usual method of an authoritarian power is now being treated with the seriousness it deserves. Countries as diverse as France, Uganda, Ghana, Kenya, and Kazakhstan have summoned Chinese diplomats to give them a dressing down about everything from the racist treatment of Africans in China to the deliberate campaign of misinformation.
European Union officials such as foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell are starting to view China in a much more skeptical light. Beijing is taking notice; an internal government report states that anti-China sentiment around the world is so high that it could jeopardize its trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. At the very least, we are likely to see countries diversify their manufacturing to lessen dependence on Chinese supply chains. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is well on his way to doing exactly that, announcing last month a $2 billion fund as an incitement for Japanese companies to relocate their operations from China.
Nobody should be under any illusions that the coronavirus will magically wipe China and Russia off the map of U.S. competitors. The world, after all, is in the era of great power rivalry. The Trump administration (and any administration that comes after it) would be wise to continue reforming its national security strategy for such a world — reform that would require far less U.S. attention and commitment in the Middle East, and a newfound emphasis on pragmatic diplomacy in pursuit of U.S. national security interests.
But let’s not kid ourselves: The U.S. is not going to collapse like the Roman Empire. The post-coronavirus world is likely to be very similar to its prequel. If Washington learns the right lessons from this pandemic to reinvest in its domestic capacity, the U.S. will come out of this crisis stronger and more prepared than it was before.
Daniel R. DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a fellow at Defense Priorities.
