President Trump still faces an uphill battle for reelection, but there are some signs that the race against Democratic challenger Joe Biden could be about to get more competitive.
“The race from my perspective as a pollster is that it is tightening,” said Republican strategist Jon Gilmore. “Most of the swing state polling shows margin-of-error leads for Biden. President Trump has got to be disciplined for these final months to appeal to the key swing state voters and the ever-important independents.”
Biden’s lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average is down to 6.4 points, having not long ago been above 8. In the top battleground states, Biden’s edge over Trump is 4.7 points. A Hill/HarrisX poll shows the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead by just 3 points, a margin consistent with Rasmussen. An Emerson College poll has Biden up by 4.
Trump’s numbers took a severe hit over the spring and summer as the coronavirus, a pandemic-related economic contraction, and the civil unrest following the death of George Floyd diminished public confidence in his leadership. With the peace and prosperity message that was to be the centerpiece of Trump’s reelection campaign superseded by events, Biden assumed a low profile and jumped out to a growing lead in the embattled president’s shadow.
In a single month in Gallup, Trump’s approval rating fell 10 points from a near high of 49% to just 39%. Biden began to break 50% in some national polls, most recently hitting 55% in a Harvard/Harris survey. In a mid-July Fox News poll, respondents gave Trump low marks on such important presidential traits as compassion, intelligence, judgment, and mental soundness. Democrats began whispering about a possible Biden landslide.
Since then, Trump has worked to reassure the public about his coronavirus management and to drive up Biden’s negatives. He said Thursday that the former two-term vice president would “hurt God” if elected. Trump also said Biden “totally disparaged and insulted the black community” with comments suggesting there was more diversity of opinion among Latinos. The results have been mixed on both counts, but there are indications Trump might be clawing his way back into the race.
But not all polls tell the same story. Economist/YouGov still has Biden leading by 9 points, with Trump winning just 40% of the vote. This raises the question of whether Trump is really gaining or if we are seeing variances between pollsters.
“Bit from column A and a bit from column B. The tightening isn’t in the same major media polls that were showing 9-10 point leads. The August versions of those polls should all be coming out over the next few weeks,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson. “So it looks like the absolute worst is behind Trump, and right now, it’s probably more of a 7-8 point race than a 9-10.”
Aside from Biden’s margin, there is Trump’s share of the national vote. Rasmussen, Harvard/Harris, and Emerson all have the president in the mid-40s, which is in striking distance of where he needs to be in November. But the Hill, IBD/TIPP, Economist/YouGov, and CNBC/Change Research are among the recent polls that show Trump in the low 40s, down from the 46% he ultimately won in 2016 — a much tougher slog.
Most importantly, Trump needs to make up ground in the battleground states that supplied his Electoral College majority. In addition to discouraging numbers coming out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump is down in Florida and playing defense in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. While some of these state-level public polls were among the least accurate in the last presidential election, team Trump can’t afford to take chances.
The Trump campaign has redirected its resources to the early-voting states, where they are up on the air with ads pounding Biden as a stooge of the radical left. The president’s supporters are also eagerly awaiting the announcement of Biden’s running mate, viewing it as an opportunity to increase scrutiny of the Democratic ticket and further close the gap.
“As we get closer to November, this race is going to keep tightening and likely be very close,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “What will really matter is if Americans feel that the economic recovery has true momentum and that there will be a solution to the coronavirus. At the same time, this is the time for the Trump campaign to define Biden, who has banked on making this a referendum of the past year.”
