Former President Barack Obama is flexing his political muscle in states that could decide the Senate’s balance of power, attempting to reconnect with voters who seem out of President Joe Biden‘s reach.
But although Biden and Obama play for the same Democratic team, the party’s loyalty toward Obama undercuts the incumbent and his net negative 12-percentage-point approval rating before next week’s midterm elections.
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Republicans have mocked Biden over House and Senate candidates distancing themselves from him. Republican National Committee spokesman Nathan Brand, for instance, contended that being branded “a Biden Democrat” is “a loser” with undecided members of the public.
“Biden can’t step foot in a swing district without reminding voters of the inflation Democrats caused, surging crime, and high gas prices,” Brand told the Washington Examiner.
RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel piled on earlier Monday during an interview with Fox News, trashing Obama as a “relic” and his reemergence as “Hail Mary desperation.”
Obama remains popular among independents, and there is “less vitriol” surrounding him now for those who identify as Republican-leaning, according to pollster David Paleologos. Biden does not have the same latitude.
For Paleologos, Suffolk University’s Political Research Center director, Biden is “smart to stay away,” providing Obama with the opportunity to drive up Democratic margins in battleground states.
“Number one, for people who are truly undecided who are likely to vote, it prevents that polarizing effect,” he said. “Number two is you prevent an increased turnout among people who maybe would have sat the race out and not voted, or didn’t like the candidates, and give them the added motivation to vote against the Dem.”
Democratic strategist Peter Fenn dismissed fissures between Biden, Obama, and their respective camps, amplified this fall by Gabriel Debenedetti’s book, The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Instead, Fenn was adamant Biden appreciated having Obama on the campaign trail.
“Absence makes the heart grow fonder,” he said. “With the press attention Obama is getting, the crowds, the strength of his message, maybe that’s why the Wisconsin video has had 13 million views on Twitter.”
The video to which Fenn is referring is of Obama in Milwaukee last weekend criticizing Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) for supporting reevaluating Social Security as he seeks a third term against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI).
“The point is some of you here are on Social Security. Some of your parents are on Social Security. Some of your grandparents are on Social Security,” Obama said Saturday. “They worked hard jobs for it. They have chapped hands for it. They had long hours, and sore backs, and bad knees to get that Social Security.”
“If Ron Johnson does not understand that,” he added, “if he understands giving tax breaks for private planes more than he understands making sure that seniors who worked all their lives are able to retire with dignity and respect, he’s not the person who’s thinking about you and knows you and sees you, and he should not be your senator from Wisconsin.”
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Obama’s Wisconsin rally was part of a Midwestern barnstorm, which also included a stop in Detroit to shore up the “blue wall.” Obama appeared alongside Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in Atlanta the following day as former NFL player Herschel Walker (R-GA) challenges the reverend for his seat. Meanwhile, Biden spent the weekend in Wilmington, Delaware.
Obama is expected to be in Las Vegas and Phoenix this week ahead of those states’ hotly contested Senate races before linking up with Biden in Philadelphia — in the president’s birth state — next Saturday to boost embattled Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA).
Fetterman’s pre-primary stroke has upended his Senate race against doctor and television presenter Mehmet Oz (R-PA). FiveThirtyEight predicts Fetterman will eke out a win by roughly a point, 49.6%-48.3%. RealClearPolitics has Fetterman polling ahead by an average of 1.5 points in what the Cook Political Report considers a “toss-up” contest. Meanwhile, Biden will stump with candidates in less competitive Florida and New Mexico.
Although Biden became the first Democrat in 24 years to clinch Arizona in 2020, Samara Klar, a University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy associate professor, for example, spoke of his “pretty rough rating” in the state as it grapples with “some of the highest rates of inflation in the country.” That is why he is a drag on Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) as the retired astronaut defends himself against venture capitalist Blake Masters (R-AZ).
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“Obama is clearly a Democratic figure. He’s seen as a liberal Democrat, but I think to further align themselves with a Democratic president right now is maybe not seen as particularly helpful by either candidate,” she said, mentioning gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) as well.
