President Trump has said that he thinks Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in November. But Republicans will most likely be subject to another two years of Nancy Pelosi’s speakership, and Trump shoulders part of the blame.
Trump’s first two years in the job set House Republicans up to crash during the 2018 midterms. While Mitch McConnell’s judge confirmation machine was running the Senate, Trump couldn’t help but repeatedly spar with former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.
Meanwhile, the chaos that was Trump’s campaign carried over into his first term. Democrats capitalized, running in the midterms primarily on an anti-corruption platform as a check on the president. Trump also drove suburban voters, particularly suburban women, into the arms of the Democratic Party, which looks to carry over to 2020 as well.
It was not all on Trump, of course. A unified Republican Congress failed on its own promise to repeal and replace Obamacare, failing to fulfill the mandate given to them by the American people when Republicans swept into the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014. Democrats were able to run on healthcare during the 2018 midterms despite crashing and burning on that very issue not even 10 years prior.
But Trump’s failure to stay on message has allowed Democrats to make Trump’s personality the issue, rather than his administration’s successful policies. Even if Trump manages to survive his self-inflicted electoral injury, voters are almost certain to return Democrats to the House majority as a check on the president.
Nancy Pelosi has handed Republicans multiple opportunities to capitalize on her botched two years in the majority. She has been unable to keep the left-wing of her caucus from leading the House discussion, and the chief accomplishment of House Democrats the last two years was a botched impeachment that Democrats no longer bring up. And yet, House ratings by Cook Political Report continue to shift toward Democrats.
There are no certainties in this election, but Republicans have a far worse chance of winning the House than the Senate or the presidency. If Barack Obama shoulders a chunk of the blame for overseeing the national collapse of the Democratic Party during his presidency, Trump must shoulder some as well for depriving down-ballot Republicans of oxygen in both 2018 and 2020. And if he does manage to win reelection, Trump must consider changing his tune if he wants to rid himself of Pelosi in 2022.
