If there is one state that Republicans can count on to bring in a hefty amount of votes each election cycle, it’s Texas, where everything’s bigger. But recently there has been talk about the Lone Star State potentially bailing on the GOP. Is it possible that Joe Biden can pull the state into the Democratic column and secure those 28 electoral votes for himself? To find out, he might just have to mess with Texas.
In every election since 1980, Republicans have held the state. It is where both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush claimed as their home with the younger Bush having served two terms there as governor.
If Texas has been so reliably red for 40 years, why is it looking so likely to change now?
What we’re seeing here is the Texodus.
With growing frustrations about high taxes, spiking housing prices, growing homelessness, sustained heavy droughts, danger of wildfires, and most recently heavy restrictions on mobility during COVID-19, Californian’s have grown weary of living on the West Coast. Because of this, in the early to mid 2010s, many began moving their businesses and families to Arizona. Similarly, by the mid 2010s many had started to move even further east to Texas where businesses received even lower tax rates and employees could enjoy no state income tax. As of 2019, 49 Fortune 500 companies have reportedly stationed their headquarters in Texas. And there’s very little reason to believe that number won’t go up.
So, what does this mean for the political map and Biden’s hopes of snatching the state from Trump and the GOP? Well, when new people move into town, they bring their politics with them.
From 1996 to 2012, the GOP candidate has won between 55-60% of the popular vote in the state. In 2016, that number dropped to just over 52%. Though Trump still beat Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton by over 800,000 votes, it was becoming clear that the once Republican stronghold had its cracks.
In the 2018 Senate election, those cracks became larger and more apparent. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz defeated challenger Beto O’Rourke by a margin of only 2.6% or just over 200,000 votes. Not only was the margin of victory smaller for a Republican defeating a Democrat, Beto O’Rourke captured more votes than Hilary Clinton did in the 2016 presidential election.
Though not unheard of, it’s highly unusual for midterm elections to have a better turnout than a general election.
Even in the House of Representatives, Republicans have started to see the writing on the wall with two house seats flipping from red to blue in 2018. Additionally, six Republicans are not seeking re-election in 2020, which may mean that it’s more difficult to retain their seats.
Most polls are still favoring Trump to win the state this November, but don’t be surprised if you see an upset and more broadly the state trending more blue over the next decade of election cycles.
