In the 2016 election, then-candidate Donald Trump secured his election victory by breaking through the blue wall of the midwest and winning Wisconsin. Could he go even further this cycle and get Minnesota as well?
The North Star State currently has the longest streak of any in the union of voting Democrat going back to 1972 when Republican Richard Nixon won in a devastating landslide, notching every possible electoral vote except Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. Of course, this was the same year as the Watergate break-in, which later led to Nixon’s resignation in August 1974.
Though the data may seem to indicate that Minnesota is a reliably blue state, there’s more to the story here.
Since the 1972 election, Minnesota has had a healthy blend of Republican and Democratic governors, senators, and members of Congress. They even elected hall of fame WWE wrestler and commentator Jesse “The Body Man” Ventura as governor of the state back in 1999.
So how will this affect President Trump’s chances of flipping the state red?
During the 2016 election, Hilary Clinton received only 44,765 more votes than Trump. That is a much closer spread in Minnesota for a presidential election since 1984 when Senator Walter Mondale won his home state by less than 4,000 votes over Ronald Reagan.
Beyond the presidential election, there could be an interesting Senate race cooking, too.
During her 2018 re-election bid, Sen. Amy Klobuchar was able to sail to victory, but her counterpart likely won’t have as easy a time. Tina Smith, Minnesota’s junior senator, was first appointed to replace Senator Al Franken, who resigned after multiple accusations of sexual misconduct in 2017. Smith then went on to win a special election in 2018 to finish out the rest of Franken’s term. Though Smith is in a good position to win again, she’s facing a strong challenge from former Congressman Jason Lewis, who could benefit greatly from Trump being at the top of the ballot.
A major contributor to the question of whether Trump can flip the state is closely tied to the tragic death of George Floyd and the unrest that has ensued since. As a result of his death, Minneapolis has been dealing with rebuilding the city from the violent riots, while the City Council was debating whether or not to defund the police.
Being that all politics is local and that Democrats have been running the show in the land of 10,000 lakes, their handling of the unrest during the summer may be a better indicator of who voters will pick in November.
