Iran’s nuclear breakout time ‘now too short for comfort,’ says State Department

“There is a deal on the table now that JCPOA negotiations are complete,” said John Kirby, NSC coordinator for strategic communications, on Fox yesterday. “It’s up to Iran to see whether they’re going to take it or not.”

“If they don’t, then we’re going to continue to put pressure on them with our allies and partners,” Kirby said. “And just as importantly, we’re going to continue to make sure we have the capability and the capacity in the region, military and otherwise, to deal with their destabilizing activities.”

At the State Department, spokesman Ned Price said Iran’s breakout time — the time it would take to amass enough fissile material to create a nuclear weapon — has decreased significantly, from about a year to “a matter of a few weeks or less.”

“A mutual return to compliance would put Iran’s nuclear program back in a box. It would lengthen that breakout time, which is now too short for comfort, which has now dwindled well beyond where anyone would like to see it.”

IRAN CAPABLE OF MAKING NUCLEAR BOMB, SENIOR OFFICIAL SAYS

THE BLAME GAME: The Biden administration blames former President Donald Trump, who pulled the U.S. out of the agreement between Tehran and six world powers in 2018, for Iran’s current status as a “threshold state,” on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons.

“Unfortunately the previous administration pulled out of the deal and allowed Iran to continue to advance their capability and to build fissile material,” said Kirby on Fox. “And so, we are where we are.”

“John Kirby is wrong,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK) in an appearance on Fox following Kirby. “When President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, he didn’t empower, embolden Iran. In fact, they barely got past the limits of enriched uranium under that nuclear deal in the Trump administration. Why? Because they were afraid of America after President Trump authorized the killing of their terrorist mastermind Qasem Soleimani.”

“Iran is racing toward the nuclear breakout because Joe Biden is engaging in endless negotiations with an anti-American regime that chants death to America. And John Kirby is wrong,” Cotton said. “This has all happened on Joe Biden’s watch because the Ayatollahs knew that Joe Biden didn’t have the nerve to stand up to them.”

BIDEN SAYS US WOULD USE FORCE AS ‘LAST RESORT’ TO STOP IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPON

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

HAPPENING TODAY: First lady Jill Biden will welcome Olena Zelenska, the first lady of Ukraine, to the White House at 1:30 p.m. for a private meeting. Zelenska is in Washington on a mission to keep the war in Ukraine and the suffering of her people from fading from the headlines as the war will soon enter its sixth month.

Yesterday, Zelenska met at the State Department with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said in a statement that she “spoke about the immense and growing human costs of Russia’s full-scale invasion.”

Tomorrow, Zelenska is to address members of Congress at 11 a.m. in the Congressional Auditorium in the Capitol Visitor Center.

UKRAINIAN FIRST LADY KICKS OFF DC TRIP, ADDRESS TO CONGRESS AND WHITE HOUSE VISIT ON TAP

ALSO TODAY, PUTIN TO IRAN: In only his second trip out of the country since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is traveling to Iran to sit down with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The agenda is ostensibly about Syria, but the three leaders are also expected to discuss a U.N.-backed proposal to resume exports of Ukrainian grain, which have been blockaded by Russia since the start of the war. Erdogan has been trying to broker a deal that would allow grain shipments to resume through the Black Sea to ease the growing global food crisis.

Turkey, while a NATO member, has not imposed any sanctions on Russia, but has provided Baykar drones to Ukraine, which were particularly effective in the early weeks of the war in taking out Russian tanks with precision strikes.

TURKEY COULD STILL BE THE SPOILER: Because the application of Finland and Sweden to join NATO requires ratification from all 30 current members, Turkey could still block the expansion of the alliance, and yesterday, Erdogan warned that Turkey’s approval hinges on the two Nordic countries keeping promises they made in Madrid last month.

Erdogan said he can still “freeze” Sweden and Finland’s membership and that he believes Sweden is “not showing a good image” for now, according to Reuters.

“There is strong consensus and support within the NATO Alliance for their accession, knowing that the accession of these two long-standing partners, these two great democracies, will make the Alliance stronger,” said spokesman Ned Price at the State Department. “The United States will continue to work with those three countries to see to it that this accession process and ratification here and around the world is as swift and efficient as it can possibly be.”

NORTHROP GRUMMAN’S NEW SST: At the Farnborough International Air Show now underway in England, Northrop Grumman and Boom Supersonic have unveiled plans for a new supersonic passenger plane that the companies say is “tailored to provide quick-reaction capabilities to the U.S. military.”

The joint agreement to produce a “special mission variant” of Boom’s Overture supersonic aircraft calls for the new version of the plane to be designed and built in the U.S. with production beginning in 2024 and carrying passengers by 2029.

The plane would carry 80 passengers and travel twice the speed of conventional airliners. “Fitted with specialized capabilities, the aircraft could be used to deliver medical supplies, provide for emergency medical evacuation or surveil vast areas faster than conventional aircraft,” the companies said in a press release.

RUSSIA ‘STRUGGLING’ IN UKRAINE SAYS UK MOD: In it’s latest Twitter update on the war in Ukraine, the British Defense Ministry says Russian forces continue to struggle to sustain effective offensive combat power, and that the problem “is likely becoming increasingly acute.”

“As well as dealing with severe under-manning, Russian planners face a dilemma between deploying reserves to the Donbas or defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in the southwestern Kherson sector,” the assessment says. “While Russia may still make further territorial gains, their operational tempo and rate of advance is likely to be very slow without a significant operational pause for reorganization and refit.”

INDUSTRY WATCH: The Space Development Agency had awarded two prototype contracts to L3Harris and Northrop Grumman Strategic Space Systems to build and launch a constellation of 28 satellites to provide missile warning and missile tracking. The potential value of the first phase is over $1.3 billion.

“These prototypes will provide global and persistent indications, detection, warning, tracking, and identification of conventional and advanced missile threats, including hypersonic missile systems,” the Pentagon said in a press release.

“SDA is confident that selection of the L3 Harris and Northrop Grumman teams provides the best overall solution to accelerate delivery of a low-Earth orbit constellation with wide-field-of-view infrared sensors for a global missile warning and missile tracking capability,” said Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency.

SPACE DEVELOPMENT AGENCY ANNOUNCES CONTRACTS FOR HYPERSONIC WEAPONS DEFENSE

The Rundown

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why Do We Keep Listening to the ‘TV’ Generals on Ukraine?

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian first lady kicks off DC trip, address to Congress and White House visit on tap

Washington Examiner: At least 1,000 children killed or wounded in war, Ukrainian prosecutor estimates

Washington Examiner: Russian military relying on mercenary group with low standards in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian mayor shares cryptic post about deadly ‘incident’ at Russian-controlled plant

Washington Examiner: US scraps lengthy piece of paperwork for Afghan allies left behind

Washington Examiner: China uses John Bolton’s coup plotter boast to attack US-led international order

Washington Examiner: Blue Angels pick first female jet pilot for squad

Washington Examiner: Space Development Agency announces contracts for hypersonic weapons defense

Washington Examiner: Milley accused of dodging questions about allegedly undermining Trump while in office

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Increasing ‘buy American’ requirements on defense spending is still a bad idea

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Intel blackmails Congress in favor of the Chinese Communist Party

Reuters: Pentagon Nears F-35 Jet Deal Worth About $30 Bln – Sources

AP: Putin heads to Tehran for talks with leaders of Iran, Turkey

Wall Street Journal: Russia Targets Kyiv’s New Arms

Washington Post: Ukraine’s farmers become the latest target of Russian missiles

Washington Post: Russia sending teachers to Ukraine to control what students learn

Washington Post: Russian mother says son detained in Ukraine for refusing to fight

NBC News: Gen. Milley Orders Staff To Gather Info On Every Interaction Between Chinese And U.S. Militaries Amid Rising Tension

Reuters: China Demands U.S. Cancel Potential Arms Sale To Taiwan

Reuters: U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi To Visit Taiwan In August – FT

Bloomberg: U.S. Strike Kills Two Al-Shabaab Militants After Attack in Somalia

Defense News: Pentagon Plan For Homeland Cruise Missile Defense Taking Shape

AP: Former White House aides to testify at next Jan. 6 hearing

Wall Street Journal: Pentagon Keeps A Lid On Afghan Exit Review

Breaking Defense: Senate Armed Services Releases Full $847 Billion Defense Bill

Breaking Defense: Air Force’s Sixth-Gen Fighter Downselect ‘Not All That Far Away,’ says Kendall

Stars and Stripes: DARPA Scores Success With Hypersonic Missile Launch From Marine Corps Truck

Air Force Times: Air Force Considers Removing Co-pilot From Boeing KC-46 Tanker Crews

Air Force Magazine: NATO’s New Air Commander Prepares for New Phase of Vigilance Along Eastern Front

Air Force Magazine: Air Force Successfully Tests Redesigned AMRAAM AIM-120D3

Air Force Magazine: African Coups Give China and Russia an Edge in Restive Sahel

AP: Arrest of Saudi for lying to FBI shows kingdom’s reach in US

19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy Is Training for War in the South China Sea

19fortyfive.com: Tempest: New 6th-Generation Stealth Fighter Will Fly In the Next 5 years

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has a Problem: Is Russia’s New Ukraine Offensive Already Failing?

19fortyfive.com: How Many Tanks Can Russia Afford to Lose in Ukraine?

Calendar

TUESDAY | JULY 19

8 a.m. — State Department and the Commerce Department virtual Supply Chain Ministerial Forum, with opening remarks from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo Livestream at https://www.state.gov

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion issues including “NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, insights into intelligence sharing, concerns over Russian cyber threats and the outlook for NATO’s possible expansion,” with David Cattler, NATO assistant secretary Gen. for intelligence and security; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation

9 a.m. — East-West Center in Washington and the National Committee on North Korea virtual discussion: “DPRK Diplomacy in Europe,” with Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Europe Ambassador: Kim Pyong-Il; and Nicolas Levi, scholar at the Polish Academy of Sciences https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

9:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Readiness Program Update,” with testimony from Army Vice Chief Gen. Joseph Martin; Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Adm. Randy Crites; Assistant Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith; Air Force Vice Chief Gen. David Allvin; and Vice Chief of Space Operations, Gen. David Thompson https://armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “The War in Ukraine and Energy Security and Energy Market Disruption,” with Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners LLC; and Mark Nevitt, associate professor of law at Syracuse University https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event

10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Is China’s Military Logistics Better than the Russian Military’s?” with Joshua Arostegui, senior analyst at the Defense Department; George Shatzer, director of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute’s Strategic Research and Analysis Department; James Roger Sessions, Defense Department analyst; Lonnie Henley, lecturer at George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs; and Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-military-logistics

1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Lessons Learned: From the Ukraine-Russia Information War,” with Shawn Chenoweth, technical lead program manager at Peraton; Jeremy Widener COGINT analyst at 3GIMBALS; and Daniela Fayer, publisher at Defense One https://www.defenseone.com/feature/lessons-learned

6:30 p.m. 1221 Avenue of the Americas, N.Y. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual discussion: “Potential flashpoints in Asia: A recap of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2022,” with Lisa Curtis, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Indo-Pacific Security Program; Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute; David Gordon, senior adviser for geo-economics and strategy at IISS; and E.J. Herold, executive director of IISS-Americas Livestream at https://www.iiss.org/events

7 p.m. Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Aspen Strategy Group three-day (19-22) Aspen Security Forum begins with a fireside chat with Chief of Space Operations, Gen. John  “Jay” Raymond moderated by Mary Louise Kelly, NPR: and a second chat with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas moderated by Trymaine Lee https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2022-agenda-in-person-asf

WEDNESDAY | JULY 20

7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” discussion with Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo https://www.ausa.org/events/ausa-coffee-series

9 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement two-day VA Healthcare Conference, with Rep. Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio; and Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., discussing “Saving Veterans’ Limbs and Lives by Application of the PAVE Program” https://www.idga.org/events-veteransaffairshealthcare

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Biden’s Trip to the Middle East: Outcomes and Opportunities,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro; Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Security Initiative; and Kirsten Fontenrose, Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/outcomes-and-opportunities/

9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Does the War in Ukraine Herald a New European Era?” with Benedetta Berti, foreign policy and security analyst; Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; and Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center https://carnegie-mec.org/2022/07/20

10:45 a.m. Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Day two of the Aspen Security Forum with Gen. Charles Flynn, commanding Gen., U.S. Army Pacific; Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown; CIA Director William Burns; White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan; U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Glen VanHerck; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander U.S. Special Operations Command; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Kay Bailey Hutchison, former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and others. Full agenda at https://www.aspensecurityforum.org

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Now the Real Work Begins: The U.S.-Japan Alliance Agenda,” with Edgard Kagan, special assistant to the president and senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the National Security Council; and Pamela Phan, deputy assistant secretary for Asia at the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration https://www.csis.org/events/now-real-work-begins

THURSDAY | JULY 21

8:30 a.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Advancing Abraham Accords Through Regional Air Defense,” with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; and Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of JINSA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

9 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Iran and the Regional Order,” with Mahsa Rouhi, research fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for Strategic Research https://dohainstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. Bryan Fenton for promotion to general and to be commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; and Lt. Gen. Michael Langley for promotion to general and to be commander, U.S. Africa Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

3 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion:”Sweden and Finland’s application to join NATO and the future of security in Europe,” with Finnish Ambassador to the U.S. Mikko Hautala; and Swedish Ambassador to the U.S. Karin Olofsdotter https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ambassadors

WEDNESDAY | JULY 27

TBA Fort Bragg, North Carolina — Association of the U.S. Army two-day, in-person “Warfighter Summit and Exposition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Alejandro Villanueva, former Army Ranger and former offensive tackle for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens; as well as leaders from Army Forces Command, the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/warfighter/index.cfm

9 a.m. 10 Daniel French Dr., S.W. — Korean War Veterans Memorial “Wall of Remembrance Dedication Ceremony,” in which an addition featuring names of more than 36,000 American war dead and 7,000 Koreans who fought alongside them will be unveiled, with President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attending. https://koreanwarvetsmemorial.org/event/wall-of-remembrance-dedication/

THURSDAY | JULY 28

1:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual fireside chat with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow, director, CNAS Defense Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat