AN IGNOMINIOUS RETREAT: The announcement came in one of those carefully staged meetings broadcast on Russian state TV. Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, was providing a grim “sitrep” to his boss, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
“Comrade minister of defense, after a comprehensive assessment of the current situation, we suggest taking defense along the left shore of the Dnieper River. Understand this is not a simple decision, but at the same time, we will most importantly preserve the lives of our servicemen and in general the combat readiness of the group of forces,” said Surovikin, pointing to a map of the Kherson region that Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed as Russian territory in an elaborate ceremony just over a month ago.
Upon hearing that it was becoming impossible to resupply troops in Kherson and that its defense would be “futile,” a stone-faced Shoigu ordered the withdrawal. “Go ahead with the pullout of troops and take all measures to ensure safe transfer of troops, weapons, and equipment to the other bank of the Dnieper River.”
‘THE ENEMY DOES NOT BRING US GIFTS’: Ukraine’s immediate reaction was suspicion, questioning whether Russian forces were truly retreating or simply abandoning the farmland around the city of Kherson while hoping to lure Ukrainian forces into deadly urban combat.
In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautioned against premature elation at the prospect that Kherson, under Russian control since the early days of the war, might soon be liberated.
“The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make ‘gestures of goodwill.’ We fight our way up. And when you are fighting, you must understand that every step is always resistance from the enemy. It is always the loss of the lives of our heroes,” Zelensky said. “We are moving gradually, strengthening our positions step by step. … But our emotions must be restrained — always during war.”
Russia is believed to have massed between 20,000-30,000 troops in the city, and the withdrawal could take several weeks.
UKRAINE UNEASY ABOUT ‘BAD THEATER’ IN RUSSIA’S WITHDRAWAL FROM MAJOR CITY
WHY RETREAT NOW? The forced retreat is another humiliating chapter in Russia’s shambolic, deeply flawed, and poorly executed invasion plan, but while a political embarrassment, tactically it makes sense, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Politically, it’s very embarrassing. This is a province that Putin has claimed, and now he’s giving most of it up, territory that they’ve been trying to hold on to for several months,” Cancian told the Washington Examiner. “But militarily, it’s very sensible because they’re on the wrong side of a very big river where the crossing points are under fire, and if their position were to collapse at some point, they would risk losing a lot of troops, so a planned withdrawal makes a lot of sense.”
Cancian suspects Russia’s strategy at this point is to dig in for the winter and hope that pressure builds for Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire or peace deal.
“I think what the retreat says is that the Russian plan is to hold on defense. You can see that across the front lines. Russia has mobilized a lot of personnel, which though very poorly conducted is producing soldiers at the front,” Cancian said. “They’re digging in all along the front, putting tank barriers, concrete bunkers, and their strategy is apparently just to hold on.
“I think that their hope is that over the winter the Europeans will crack under the pressure of recession, inflation, and high energy prices and that there will be a ‘peace party’ that arises demanding negotiations and some sort of armistice,” he said. “Looking into my crystal ball, I think that the Europeans will hold on through the winter. There will be some grumbling, but they’ve stored a lot of natural gas, and the governments are committed to easing the sting of high energy prices, so I think that they will continue their support through the winter.”
ANALYSIS: CRIMEA, POLITICS, AND WHY RUSSIA HAD TO RETREAT FROM KHERSON
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden departs Washington tonight for Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to attend the 27th annual session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP27, which is already underway.
Biden will “build on the significant work the United States has undertaken to advance the global climate fight and help the most vulnerable build resilience to climate impacts” and “highlight the need for the world to act in this decisive decade,” according to a White House statement.
He is also scheduled to have a bilateral meeting with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi.
MILLEY: 200,000+ CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE: In a speech at the Economic Club of New York yesterday, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed the highest estimates to date for casualties on both sides after 8 1/2 months of war in Ukraine.
“You’re looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said, according to Reuters. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side — a lot of human suffering.”
In addition, Milley said as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians had died during the fighting.
Milley did not give a source for his casualty estimate, which included both dead and wounded on both sides. Both Ukraine and Russia keep their death tolls secret, but Ukraine has claimed that it has killed 78,690 Russians since the invasion in February.
MCCAUL: ‘UKRAINE CAN DEFEAT RUSSIA’: House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Michael McCaul (R-TX) said Russia’s pullback from Kherson shows that Ukraine has the wherewithal to deal a total defeat to Putin’s army if supplied with enough of the right kind of weapons.
“A Russian retreat will confirm what I and many of my colleagues have been stressing for months: with the right weapons, Ukraine can defeat Russia’s invading forces and further expose the absurdity of Putin’s attempted ‘annexation’ of Kherson and three other regions in Ukraine,” McCaul said in a statement. “It is far past time for the Biden administration to provide Kyiv with all the weapons it needs, including longer-range ATACMS, to ensure Putin, and all aggressors, understand they cannot win unprovoked wars of aggression.”
BIDEN: COMPROMISE UP TO UKRAINE: At a post-midterm election news conference yesterday, Biden insisted that the U.S. is not pressuring Ukraine to make any compromises to reach a peace agreement with Putin.
He said the Russian military withdrawal from Kherson is “evidence of the fact that they have some real problems,” but he added that it might “lead to time for everyone to recalibrate their positions over the winter period.”
“It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” he said. “That’s up to the Ukrainians — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
“I said what’s going to happen is they’re going to both lick their wounds, decide what they’re going to do over the winter, and decide whether or not they’re going to compromise.”
CURIOUS TIMING: Biden also questioned the public announcement of the withdrawal from Kherson came after the crucial midterm elections. “I found it interesting they waited until after the election to make that judgment, which we knew for some time that they were going to be doing.”
“Top Russian propagandist says that Russia waited to announce the Kherson withdrawal until after Nov. 8, to make sure it does not help Joe Biden and the Democrats in the midterms,” tweeted Julia Davis, who runs the Russian Media Monitor. (Tagline: “I watch Russian state TV, so you don’t have to.”)
Davis posted a clip of Vladimir Solovyov, whom she called “Russia’s Tucker Carlson,” lamenting that Russia’s plan “to discredit the U.S. elections and convince the Republicans that the mighty Kremlin hand covertly helped push them to victory had backfired.”
“Solovyov greeted his audience by wishing them a ‘Happy Interference in the U.S. Election Day,’” before the returns began to show that Trump-backed candidates were losing,” Davis wrote in the Daily Beast. “During the broadcast of [Russia’s] 60 Minutes, host Olga Skabeeva asked an expert: ‘How are our guys in America?’ Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov clarified with a chuckle: ‘Our Republicans.’”
FROM MY INBOX: THOUGHTS ON THE MILITARY RECRUITING CRISIS: I get a lot of emails in my inbox on a variety of subjects, but with Veterans Day being observed tomorrow, I thought I would share verbatim the thoughts of retired Army Capt. Sean McFate, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, about why the U.S. military is in a recruiting crisis.
“People don’t volunteer for the military just because they want job opportunities or a free education. Military life is hard, and you can get killed. You need to believe it’s worth it, and that’s the current problem. Who can blame youth today who look back on 20 years of war and ask: What was it all for? Nothing, apparently.
Also, this is an absolute trope and ‘red flag’ that these analysts are not taking it seriously: ‘Low unemployment rates (plenty of job opportunities in the civilian sector).’ It’s not like the late 1990s tech boom. The ‘plenty of job opportunities’ are not career opportunities. For example, yes McDonald’s and the Gap are hiring, but that’s probably not the reason people aren’t volunteering for the force. No one is saying, ‘Gee, I really want to be a VP at Burger King, so goodbye Army!’
It seems like the military is caught in the culture wars where half of the recruiting pool thinks the military is too woke to join (conservatives) and the other half thinks military service is distasteful (liberal). That doesn’t leave much of a recruiting pool.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine uneasy about ‘bad theater’ in Russia’s withdrawal from major city
Washington Examiner: Analysis: Crimea, politics, and why Russia had to retreat from Kherson
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How would a Republican-controlled House affect relations with China?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: A Republican-controlled House isn’t going to abandon Ukraine for Russia
Washington Examiner: National Archives releases more docs tied to Mar-a-Lago investigation
Washington Examiner: Only victorious ‘Triple Threat’ member intends to carry her Border Patrol message to Congress
New York Times: Early Peace Talks Appear Unlikely As Russians Retreat And Retaliate
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Refuses Advanced Drones For Ukraine To Avoid Escalation With Russia
New York Times: Allies Give Ukraine Timely Aid, A Weapon To Shoot Down Jets, Drones And Cruise Missiles
AP: Russia’s Putin Won’t Attend Upcoming G-20 Summit in Bali
Reuters: Biden To Discuss North Korea Nuclear Threat With Japan, South Korea Leaders
Reuters: Iran Warns Saudi Arabia ‘Our Strategic Patience’ May Run Out – Fars
Defense One: No ‘Specific or Credible’ Cyberattacks Hurt Election’s Integrity, CISA Says
Military.com: Here’s How Veterans Running for Congress Did in the Midterms
Bloomberg: Biden Aims To Avoid Concessions To Xi During First Summit
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Meet the New Air Force Veterans Elected to Congress, and Other Midterm Takeaways
Washington Post: Couple Who Tried To Sell Nuclear Secrets Receive Long Prison Terms
Marine Corps Times: Drill Instructor May Be Charged In 2021 Marine Recruit Death
Red Snow: Extreme Avoidance: Austin Said Stamping Out Extremism Was a Priority. You Wouldn’t Know It
Breaking Defense: Bahrain to Receive First Batch of Block 70 F-16s in Early 2024
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Orders 2 More New E-11A BACN Aircraft Systems, Making 5
USNI News: Navy Used 16-Year-Old Law Made To Boost Army Recruiting To Raise Enlistment Age For Sailors
Washington Times: Opinion: Commander-In-Chief Biden Needs To Address The Military’s Recruiting Problem
Air Force Times: Air Force Investigating Damaged B-52 Bomber After Midair Bird Strike
19fortyfive.com: Russia Abandoning Kherson is Good for Ukraine (But the War Is Not Over)
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Kherson Defeat: The End of Putin’s Regime?
19fortyfive.com: Iran Could Transform the Ukraine War Into Missile Hell
19fortyfive.com: China Building ‘NGAD’ Sixth-Generation Fighter
19fortyfive.com: Iran Could Make Javelin Missiles, NLAWs, and Stinger Missiles Thanks to Russia
Calendar
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 10
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Saudi Rift: Economic Disagreement or Geopolitical Realignment?” with Hala Aldosari, Saudi scholar and activist; Giorgio Cafiero, founder and CEO of Gulf States Analytics; Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy; Manal Shehabi, academic visitor at the University of Oxford’s St. Antony’s College; and Annelle Sheline, research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Middle East Program https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and Middle East Program virtual discussion: “Saudi Arabia and Oil: Between the U.S. and Russia,” with Guy Laron, senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Bessma Momani, professor of political science at the University of Waterloo; and Stephen Kalin, reporter at the Wall Street Journal https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/saudi-arabia-and-oil
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft webinar: “How Will Midterm Outcomes Affect U.S. Policy on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?” with George Beebe, director, grand strategy, Quincy Institute; Rachel Bovard, senior director of policy, Conservative Partnership Institute; Jacob Heilbrunn, editor, the National Interest; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser, Quincy Institute https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 14th St. and F St. N.W.— National Press Club’s American Legion Post 20 meeting with a discussion: on “The war in Ukraine and efforts to get accurate information into Ukraine and Russia,” with Voice of America Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman https://www.press.org/newsroom https://us02web.zoom.us
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 11
9 a.m. World War II Memorial, 1750 Independence Ave. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service wreath-laying ceremony “to honor the more than 16 million men and women who served with the U.S. Armed Forces during World War II” and “in remembrance of the more than 400,000 Americans and 60 million people killed worldwide during the deadliest military conflict in human history.” Livestream at https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14
10 a.m. — Stimson Center webinar: “Ukraine and the Future of Air Warfare,” with Margarita Konaev, deputy director of analysis and research fellow, Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program and director, Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Sam Bendett, adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Center; and Kelly Grieco, senior fellow, Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/ukraine-and-the-future-of-air-warfare
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.— Brookings Institution event: “U.S. defense innovation and great power deterrence,” with Chris Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril Industries; David Ochmanek, senior defense analyst, Rand Corporation; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch
7 p.m. — Stimson Center webinar: “Military Operations Other Than War in China’s Foreign Policy,” with Courtney Fung, associate professor, Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University; Andrea Ghiselli, assistant professor, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University; and Jesse Marks, nonresident fellow, China Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/military-operations-other-than-war
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18
TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the U.S. include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“It seems like the military is caught in the culture wars where half of the recruiting pool thinks the military is too woke to join (conservatives) and the other half thinks military service is distasteful (liberal). That doesn’t leave much of a recruiting pool.”
Retired Army Capt. Sean McFate, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and adjunct professor at Syracuse University, on why the U.S. military is in a recruiting crisis
