TWO FUTURES: Whether Afghanistan can survive and prosper without the presence of thousands of American and international troops and contractors hinges on two unknowns — the ability of the 300,000-strong U.S.-trained and equipped government forces to forestall a Taliban takeover and the willingness of the Taliban to give up their brutal tactics in return for peace and a role in the future government.
“We must not assume the inevitability of a worse-case outcome,” testified Zalmay Khalilzad at a marathon session of the House Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday, where the U.S. point man in negotiations with the Taliban argued the group, like the country, has changed over the past 20 years.
“The Taliban expressed to me that they have changed, while their basic principles remain, and that [when] they had come to power unexpectedly in the ’90s, they were not prepared to govern, and they did not govern well, that their government was a failure,” he said. “They have said that to me in so many words. And now that they have learned from that.”
“They have said to me that their views have evolved,” Khalilzad told highly skeptical members of the committee. “They say the Afghan women have rights, including political participation, education, and work … They say they seek normalcy, in terms of relations, acceptability, removal from sanctions, not to remain a pariah,” he said, adding, “but we don’t take their word for it. We will have to see what happens.”
THE SPECTER OF VIETNAM: There was bipartisan pessimism in the steady stream of questions about the dire predictions of a prolonged civil war and more misery for the long-suffering Afghan people in the wake of the U.S. departure. “As somebody who lived through the peace negotiations led by Henry Kissinger and Nguyen Thieu to end the Vietnam War for the United States, this has some eerie resemblances, to be honest,” said Rep. Gerald Connolly, a Virginia Democrat.
“Just like Vietnam, we’re leaving behind hundreds of thousands of Afghans who relied on us, trusted us for their security. They bought into the proposition that women would be empowered because we’d protect them,” Connolly said. “Just like Vietnam. The same kind of assurances were given that no, no, we’re leaving behind the Vietnamese army that is more than capable of dealing with both the Vietcong and the North Vietnamese, and that proved to be a horrible, feckless fiction.”
DON’T WITHDRAW SUPPORT: “An argument can be made that Vietnam did not work out the way we had hoped because we cut off assistance to them,” Khalilzad countered. “We will continue in our security assistance to the Afghan forces. The forces are popular, they are a source of pride for the Afghans. Even the Taliban have said they don’t want a disintegration of the Afghan security forces.”
“I personally believe that the predictions that the Afghan forces will collapse right away, they’re not right,” Khalilzad said.
But he warned, “A great concern is that with the departure of our forces, that the Congress will not sustain support for the Afghan Security Forces. And I hope that won’t be the case.”
‘SO FAR, SO GOOD’: While the Taliban have not kept all aspects of their 2020 withdrawal agreement, they have refrained from any serious attacks on U.S. and other foreign troops as they pack up to leave.
“So far, so good, on the withdrawal,” Khalilzad said, noting the Taliban regard the failure of U.S. troops to leave by the May 1 deadline as a violation of the agreement. “The withdrawal has happened without significant incident. We expect that to continue, and if we’re attacked, we will defend ourselves forcefully, and we have made that clear.”
Yesterday, the U.S. Central Command said in its weekly update that the withdrawal is between 13%-20% complete.
CENTCOM REPORTS UP TO 20% OF AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL IS COMPLETE
NOT FORGOTTEN: Khalilzad said the U.S. has not stopped pressing the Taliban for the release of a 58-year-old American civilian contractor and a former Navy diver, who was abducted in Kabul last year.
“The release and safe return home of Mark Frerichs, who has been held as a hostage since 2020, is very important to Secretary [of State Antony] Blinken and to me,” Khalilzad said. “Secretary Blinken has raised Mark’s safe return repeatedly with his counterparts in the region. And in my meetings with the Taliban, I have demanded his release.”
A TALE OF TWO TALIBAN CAPTIVES
‘WE DID OUR BEST’: Asked by California Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu why the U.S. was unable to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan despite the investment of hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of American lives over two decades, Khalilzad replied, “Well, many books and articles will be written, Congressman, as to what happened, what worked, what didn’t work. All I can say is that we did our best in a difficult set of circumstances.”
Later he said, “What the United States did for Afghanistan over the past two decades has been extraordinary and motivated by goodwill and honorable goals. Our men and women in uniform have sacrificed their lives, and thousands now live with permanent physical and other disabilities as a result of their service … We want our investments and sacrifices to have been worthwhile. And if we can navigate the coming months appropriately, I believe this can happen. We want an enduring partnership with Afghanistan.”
‘THEY OUTLIVED OUR WILL’: Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, an Air Force veteran who flew missions in Afghanistan, had a more bleak assessment.
“I hope I’m wrong, I want to preface all this with that, I hope I’m incorrect,” he said, “I deeply fear that we are just simply committing this act because they outlived our will, they didn’t outlive our technology or our ability to fight. It was just outliving our will.”
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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden delivers the commencement address at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s class of 2021 graduation ceremony in New London, Connecticut, at 11 a.m.
“He will certainly talk about the important role the Coast Guard has played both for our economic security and our national security, and he will talk about his own commitment to rebuilding our Coast Guard around the world,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.
LaCAMERA’S WRINKLE-FREE CONFIRMATION HEARING: If the goal of navigating the Senate confirmation process is to avoid offending anyone, getting on the wrong side of administration policies, or making any commitments you might regret later, yesterday’s performance by Army Gen. Paul LaCamera was a masterclass that all but ensures his swift Senate approval.
LaCamera is nominated to head the combined U.S.-South Korea forces, and he faced questioning from members of the Senate Armed Services Committee at a hearing that was notably free of any contention.
Asked if he favored a return to large-scale joint military drills to increase readiness to counter North Korea, LaCamera made no commitment. “If we can’t do it live, that’s obviously the gold standard, I will continue to work, if confirmed, to do it virtual.”
“Live training is a lot better than the virtual,” he said. “But I recognize in negotiations that it is a potential bargaining chip going forward. And my job will be to identify that risk and then figure out a way to reduce it.”
Asked about the Biden administration review of U.S. landmine policy, LaCamera was equally noncommittal. “I know that the demilitarized zone is protected by land mines … a change in policy would create risks that I would have to come back and identify how we would mitigate it and other ways.”
PENTAGON HINTS BIDEN ADMINISTRATION MAY REVERSE TRUMP-ERA US LANDMINE POLICY
On the question of whether the U.S. should change its policy of “strategic ambiguity” to one of “strategic clarity” to send a clear signal to China that the U.S. is willing to defend Taiwan the way it is prepared to defend South Korea, LaCamera again punted.
“Do you think we need to be clear? More clear that we’ll clearly defend Taiwan? Then what we have been in the past?” asked Florida’s Rick Scott.
“Senator, that’s, I believe, that’s for the diplomats, and for the secretary of defense to answer that question,” LaCamera replied, and when pressed, LaCamera employed a little strategic ambiguity of his own.
“There’s advantages and disadvantages. Clarity also potentially boxes in commanders. And, quite frankly, I think boxes in policymakers also.
NO MASK POLICE AT DOD: With the new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance on masks, the Pentagon has dropped the requirement to wear face coverings for anyone who is “fully vaccinated.”
“Fully vaccinated means, you know, after your second shot, plus two weeks,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby yesterday. “However, those who are not fully vaccinated must continue wearing a mask to protect themselves and others.”
How will the mask policy be enforced? It won’t. It’s purely on the honor system.
“We think that the best tool of compliance is the integrity and character of our people and their willingness and ability to be honest about their vaccination status,” Kirby said. “There’s not going to be an active policing on the Pentagon reservation of one’s vaccination records. We’re going to rely, as we always do every day, on the integrity of our people.”
PUSHBACK ON SOCIAL MEDIA SURVEILLANCE: The Pentagon is denying a report in the Intercept that it plans to launch a pilot program for screening social media content for extremist material that would “continuously” monitor military personnel for “concerning behaviors.”
The reports said the program was being designed by an internal extremism steering committee led by Bishop Garrison, a senior adviser to the secretary of defense.
“I think there’s some misreporting on this,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in response to the Washington Examiner. “I don’t think there’s been misreporting, I know there’s been misreporting. There’s no pilot program being run by Mr. Garrison or the extremist working group to examine social media.”
“I would remind you,” Kirby said, “We already take a look at the social media footprint when we are considering recruits as they come in. Many of the services do that — in fact, I think all of them do that, which is just good common sense.”
AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL AGAIN CALLS FOR GITMO SHUTDOWN: The news that the Biden administration has approved three more Guantanamo detainees for release, but they are not going anywhere soon, has prompted Amnesty International to again call for closure of the prison camp at the U.S. naval base in Cuba.
“It is not enough for the Biden administration to announce that more detainees are cleared for release when the government has not made any plans for how it will let cleared detainees finally experience freedom,” said Daphne Eviatar, director of the group’s Security With Human Rights program, in a statement.
“Nine people are currently cleared for release at Guantanamo, and some have been cleared for more than a decade, yet they are still stuck. This is an outrageous and shameful violation of human rights,” Eviatar said. “Amnesty International USA is calling on President Biden immediately to appoint a high-level official in his administration to take charge of closing Guantanamo and arranging the transfers of all detainees who are not charged with crimes, a critical first step to ending the indefinite detention of the detainees there.”
BIDEN HOPES TO CLOSE GITMO, BUT WHERE DOES HE SEND THE BAD GUYS?
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Hamas rockets have improved range, firepower, and accuracy, experts say
Washington Examiner: Top Democrat walks back move to block arms sale to Israel
Washington Examiner: Erdogan pushes for Turkey to oversee Jerusalem and provide air support to Palestinians
Washington Examiner: Cruz sets plans to visit Israel after accusing Biden of falling short in supporting the US ally
Washington Examiner: Russian military driving risk of conflict in Arctic, Antony Blinken warns
Washington Examiner: Ousted Space Force commander says military pushed training that claims white people are ‘evil’
Washington Examiner: Centcom reports up to 20% of Afghanistan withdrawal is complete
Talk Media News: A war with China is not inevitable; if it happens, it will be in many areas with many means, Marine head says
USNI News: Berger: War With China Not ‘An Inevitability,’ But Competition Will Endure
AP: U.S.-Russia Showdown Looms As Top Diplomats Meet In Iceland
Reuters: Blinken Says Russia Has Advanced Unlawful Maritime Claims In The Arctic
Defense Daily: NATO Starts Formidable Shield 2021 Air And Missile Defense Exercise
Stars and Stripes: North Korea ‘Quiet’ But Testing Of Long-Range Missiles, Nukes Could Resume, U.S. General Says
New York Times: Iran Increases Oil Exports, Snubbing U.S. And Penalties Set By Trump
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MAY 19
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee markup of H.R.922, the “Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act”; H.R.2785, the “Energy Resource Governance Initiative Act of 2021”; Legislation to repeal the 1991 Authorization for the Use of Military Force against Iraq Resolution; Legislation to repeal the 1957 Middle East Use of Force Authorization. http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
10:30 a.m. — House Energy and Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing: “The FY2022 DOE Budget,” with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. http://energycommerce.house.gov
11 a.m. — President Joe Biden delivers commencement address at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s class of 2021 graduation ceremony New London, Conn. https://player.vimeo.com/video/542198025
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing on “Recommendations of the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service,” with Joseph Heck, chairman of the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service; Mark Gearan, vice chairman for national and public service for the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service; and Steve Barney, commissioner of the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
12 p.m. — Washington Space Business Roundtable webinar: “How Cutting the Cost and Time to Deploy Spacecraft May Revolutionize Military Space Planning,” with Air Force Col. Robert Bongiovi, director of U.S. Space Force. https://www.wsbr.org/events
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event, “A Conversation with Secretary Michael R. Pompeo,” with Pompeo, former secretary of state and distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute; and Hudson Institute senior fellows, Miles Yu, Michael Doran, and Peter Rough. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event
2 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion, “Military Base Resilience in Tampa Bay,” with retired Vice Adm. Lee Gunn, former Navy inspector general; and retired Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Stephen Cheney, ASP president https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event
2:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies press briefing to discuss South Korean president Moon Jae-in’s summit with President Joe Biden, with Victor Cha, senior vice president and Korea chair; Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair; Jane Nakano, senior fellow, Energy Security and Climate Change Program; and Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow, Korea chair. https://www.csis.org/events/press-briefing
3 p.m. — House Administration Committee hearing on “Reforming the Capitol Police and Improving Accountability for the Capitol Police Board,” with U.S. Capitol Police Inspector General Michael Bolton. https://cha.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/PEvLlCV4K9c
3 p.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Military Infrastructure and Climate Resilience,” with Richard Kidd, deputy assistant defense secretary for environment and energy resilience; and Jack Surash, senior official performing the duties of assistant secretary of the Army for installations, energy, and environment; and James Balocki, deputy assistant secretary of the navy for installations, energy, and facilities. http://appropriations.senate.gov
4:30 p.m. 232-A Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing on the atomic defense activities and programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2022 and future years defense program, with Adm. James Caldwell, deputy administrator for National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Naval Reactors; William White, acting assistant Energy secretary for environmental management; and Charles Verdon, acting administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
4:40 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual 2021 Special Operations Forces Industry Conference, with Katie Arrington, chief information security officer for acquisition and sustainment in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition. https://www.sofic.org
THURSDAY | MAY 20
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security releases new report: “More than Half the Battle: Information and Command in a New American Way of War,” with author Chris Dougherty. https://www.cnas.org/events/cnas-report-rollout
4 p.m. — Politics and Prose Bookstore virtual book discussion on “The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley,” with author Wesley Morgan; and Martha Raddatz, chief global affairs correspondent at ABC News. https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book
FRIDAY | MAY 21
TBA — South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the White House for talks with President Joe Biden. https://www.whitehouse.gov
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “The Role of Integrated Air and Missile Defense for Strategic Deterrence,” Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler, commander of U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. https://www.csis.org/events
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar, “Ukraine’s Latest Security Crisis,” with Assistant NATO Secretary General for Intelligence and Security David Cattler; Assistant NATO Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Baiba Braze; Luke Coffey, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Foreign Policy; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events
SATURDAY | MAY 22
10 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers commencement address at the U.S. Military Academy’s class of 2021 graduation ceremony at West Point, New York. Live stream at https://www.youtube.com/channel
MONDAY | MAY 24
11 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: “FY22 Priorities for National Security Space Programs,” with John Hill, performing as assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; Christopher Scolese; director, National Reconnaissance Office; Maj. Gen. Charles Cleveland, associate director of operations, National Geospatial Intelligence Agency; Jon Ludwigson, director, contracting and national security acquisitions, GAO. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
TUESDAY | MAY 25
10 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Committee hearing: “A Review of the FY2022 State Department Budget Request,” with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. http://appropriations.senate.gov
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security “virtual fireside chat” with Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr., chief of staff of the Air Force, and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director defense program, CNAS. https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event-virtual-fireside-chat
WEDNESDAY | MAY 26
11:30 a.m. EDT — Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley delivers commencement address at the Air Force Academy’s class of 2021 graduation ceremony at Colorado Springs, Co. https://www.usafa.edu
1 p.m. — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “The State Department’s Foreign Policy Strategy and FY2022 Budget Request.” http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
THURSDAY | MAY 27
11 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces hearing: “Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2022 Budget Request for Seapower and Projection Forces,” with Jay Stefany, acting assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition; Vice Adm. James Kilby, deputy chief of naval operations, warfighting requirements and capabilities; and Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commanding general, Marine Corps Combat Development Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3 p.m. — House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing: “Army Tactical Wheeled Vehicle Program Update and Review of Electrification,” Tim Goddette, deputy assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition policy and logistics; and Michael Cadiuex, director, Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle Systems Center. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | MAY 28
10 a.m. — Vice President Kamala Harris delivers commencement address at the U.S. Naval Academy’s class of 2021 graduation ceremony in Annapolis, Md. https://www.usna.edu
MONDAY | MAY 31
Memorial Day — No Daily on Defense
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“All I can say is that we did our best in a difficult set of circumstances.”
Zalmay Khalilzad, special representative on Afghanistan reconciliation, testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on America’s unsatisfying conclusion to 20 years of war in Afghanistan.
