The New York Times reports that Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan will be nominated U.S. ambassador to Moscow. It’s a good choice. Sullivan is smart, calm, and experienced: three crucial ingredients in leading the U.S. mission to Russia.
If Sullivan is confirmed by the Senate, he’ll lead a team of hundreds of diplomats and Russian employees. He’ll also face his fair share of challenges. His upcoming job isn’t for the faint of heart.
The Russian FSB intelligence service loves to play games of varying degrees with U.S. diplomats on Russian soil. Reflecting that concern, the U.S. deputy chief of mission in Moscow has great experience in diplomatic security. And while an ambassador is better shielded from these antics than other diplomats, they are not insulated entirely. Sullivan can expect the Russians to disrupt certain of his events and to cause aggravation for his senior leadership team.
That said, Sullivan’s experience should set him up to work effectively wherever possible. Popular at the State Department as a true professional and patriot, Sullivan has the chops to earn Democratic and Republican support on the Hill. And that matters for reasons other than simple confirmation.
The Russians value U.S. diplomats who stand up for themselves, get to the nuts and bolts of an issue, and who have influence in Washington. Which is why, for example, they respect national security adviser John Bolton even though he is hawkish on Russia. With his experience at the top of the State Department and his close relationship with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sullivan should gain at least some engagement from the Russians.
We shouldn’t expect too much, however. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a determined and highly capable U.S. adversary. He does not want to be friends with America, he wants to damage America. There are a few areas of possible compromise for Sullivan to embrace, but not many.
