The Democratic Establishment Takes a Beating

In the wake of the 2016 primaries (when Bernie Sanders, a self-described Democratic Socialist, won a substantial amount of the vote in the Democratic contest), it looked like a Tea Party-analogue might be emerging on the left. The thesis was that highly energized progressive voters would oust moderates in favor of more liberal candidates in the same way that Tea Party Republicans ousted insufficiently conservative candidates in 2010 and 2012. In some cases, that had gone well for the GOP (e.g. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz) and in other cases it led to disaster (e.g. Todd Akin, Christine O’Donnell). But the idea was that we could be witnessing an insurgent-led shift towards a more Sanders-esque Democratic party.

So far that hasn’t happened. The Democratic establishment has been, on the whole, pretty successful in getting their picks through the primary process.

But on Tuesday, progressives scored some wins.

The most notable defeat was Rep. Joe Crowley in New York’s 14^th District. Crowley was a high-ranking Democrat and a potential successor to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. But he lost his race to a Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Additionally, Dana Balter managed to beat Juanita Perez Williams in New York’s 24^th District. It’s not clear to me which candidate would fare better in the general election (the Democratic Party’s preferred candidate didn’t end up running so they had to improvise with Perez Williams), but I would say that it still counts as a win for the progressive wing of the party.

The left didn’t win everywhere. In Colorado’s 6^th District, Rep. Jason Crow held off Levi Tillemann, who recently posted audio of Steny Hoyer encouraging him to get out of the race. And in Colorado’s 5^th District, sitting Rep. Diana DeGette managed to hold progressive challenger Saira Rao. Democratic incumbents in New York’s 9th and 12th also managed to win. But their margins were thin, so it’s hard to portray those victories as resounding endorsements of the establishment.

It’s important not to get carried away with The Narrative here: House incumbents on both sides of the aisle still win hugely in the vast majority of districts. And just because a candidate was progressive doesn’t mean that’s why the candidate won. Factors independent of ideology—candidate biography, skill, fit with the district, fundraising ability—also matter.

But taken together, Tuesday’s results are good for the progressive left. They aren’t moving seats the way the Tea Party did, but they do show that the progressive wing has energy.

The only other notable House result is in NY-11 (Staten Island), where Trump-endorsed Republican incumbent Dan Donnovan managed to keep convicted criminal Michael Grimm from winning his old job back (Grimm used to serve in the House). Trump may have helped Donnovan get over the top. Or maybe it’s easier to run against people who have committed crimes.

Senate: Romney Gets an Easy Win

Mitt Romney will almost assuredly be the next Senator from Utah. The Associated Press called the race early for Romney, and as of Tuesday night three out of every four Utah Republican primary voters had cast their ballot for Romney.

The general election shouldn’t be tough for Romney since Utah is a very Republican state. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by 18 points, which was a really bad performance compared to normal Republican showings. In 2012, Mitt Romney won the state by 48 points. And in a 2017 special election in Utah’s 3^rd Congressional District, Republican John Curtis managed to outperform Trump’s margin—something that few other Republicans in special elections have been able to do pull off.

Polls have shown that Romney currently leads his opponent by about 40 points. According to my polling dataset, no candidate who has led by that amount at this point in the cycle has gone on to lose in the general election.

The other Senate headline is that Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democratic senator from New York, advanced to the general election without facing a challenger. Her win isn’t particularly newsworthy, but it’s worth keeping track of her since she’s considered to be a potential 2020 presidential candidate. Our SwingSeat model gives her a 99 percent chance of victory as of Tuesday night. So her path the Democratic nomination won’t be complicated by a tough re-election fight.

Governors: Surprise in Maryland

Polls in Maryland’s Democratic primary had Rushern Baker, a Maryland politician, ahead of former NAACP president Ben Jealous—sometimes by double digits. But Jealous—who had the backing of Bernie Sanders and ran to the left of Baker on some key issues—won by double digits.

Jealous will face off against incumbent Republican Governor Larry Hogan in November. Hogan boasts very high approval ratings, but is running in unfriendly territory (Maryland voted for Clinton by over 25 points in 2016). Hogan starts out as the favorite, but the race isn’t over.

There’s not much to say about Oklahoma and South Carolina. Republicans will head to a runoff in Oklahoma and the GOP will likely remain favored to keep that seat no matter who wins the primary, but incumbent Gov. Mary Fallin’s low approval rating is making it more of a headache than it would otherwise be. In South Carolina, Trump’s preferred candidate, Gov. Henry McMaster, won his runoff and will likely win his first full term as South Carolina governor in November (he took over for Nikki Haley). Trump’s endorsement didn’t give McMaster an overwhelming victory, but he made it through the Republican gubernatorial primary—which, in South Carolina in 2018, means that he stands a very good chance of winning his race in November.