North Korea on Sunday unveiled two new weapons: a submarine-launched ballistic missile and a truly massive intercontinental ballistic missile. The submarine system is not overly concerning except for its indication of Pyongyang’s development of solid fuel-based missiles, which shorten the warning time before launch. The new ICBM, however, is a big deal.
Kim Jong Un’s intent here is clear: to increase pressure on Washington by suggesting that he now has the capability to kill millions more Americans in any prospective nuclear strike. Coming so soon before the November U.S. presidential election, this unveiling must be regarded as an explicit effort to increase pressure on President Trump. It might even signify that Kim wants Joe Biden’s election (an ICBM test before November would offer clear proof to that effect).
Regardless, as an extended length variant of the Hwasong 15 intercontinental ballistic missile, which is assessed as likely capable of ranging the entire continental United States, the new missile appears designed to carry a nuclear heavier. The Hwasong 15 is projected to have a payload in the area of 100-150 kilotons, so the newly added length would increase that already significant payload capacity. This upgraded missile might be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, which, detonated over the White House, would create a shock wave reaching more than seven miles out to CIA headquarters in McLean, Virginia. That estimate might even be on the lower end.
There’s another key point to note here.
Kim knows any nuclear strike on the U.S. would likely result in overwhelming nuclear retaliation and certainly his regime’s annihilation. In turn, he needs to maximize the credible perception that he could launch a devastating attack on the U.S. homeland. Kim will not be able, at least for the foreseeable future, to produce dozens of missiles with which to hold at risk America’s very existence in the way that Russia’s nuclear force does. But if he can credibly threaten the destruction of multiple American cities with one missile, his ability to create U.S. public fear will obviously grow.
Kim thus hopes that he can strengthen his means to blackmail Washington into economic and political concessions. Kim appears to be succeeding in this regard. As Aerospace professor Chang Young-keun observed to Yonhap on Sunday, the new missile also has a redesigned front section. This, he posits, is because “a post-boost vehicle has been installed at the front.” This is a critical observation, in that post-boost vehicles allow for the effective delivery of reentry vehicles. In other words, the ability to strike multiple American cities with one missile.
In short, what we saw on Sunday appears to give physical substance to Kim’s July warning that he has lost patience with Trump’s diplomacy. One way or the other, something will have to give.
