U.S.-focused North Korean propaganda is always hyperbolic and always eccentric. But it does represent the regime’s thinking. It thus requires our close attention. Especially when the North Koreans talk about ballistic missile tests.
And that’s exactly what North Korea’s KCNA official western-focused news site did on Tuesday.
Referencing an upcoming U.S.-South Korean military exercise (one the Trump administration hasn’t canceled), North Korea lamented “a rehearsal of war aimed at militarily occupying [North Korea] by surprise attack and rapid dispatch of large-scale reinforcements…” Pyongyang continued, “Our discontinuation of the nuclear and [intercontinental ballistic missile] tests and the U.S. suspension of joint military exercises are, to all its intents and purposes, commitments made to improve bilateral relations. They are not a legal document inscribed on a paper.”
Leaving no doubts, KCNA concluded “With the U.S. unilaterally reneging on its commitments, we are gradually losing our justifications to follow through on the commitments we made with the U.S. as well.”
This threat to resume missile tests is clear and cannot be ignored as simple rhetoric.
As I noted recently, North Korean missile tests are likely because Kim Jong Un desperately needs sanctions relief. With a famine coming this winter, starvation looms large. But Kim is stuck. Currently unwilling to take verifiable nuclear and ballistic disarmament steps, Kim has no real prospect of international sanctions relief. And Chinese-Russian smuggling isn’t going to be enough to keep his regime comfortable.
That explains what the North Koreans are doing with their new threats: attempting to persuade President Trump that he is taking too harsh a negotiating line. They hope that these threats will lead Trump to back down in fear of an escalation that makes him look bad as the 2020 elections approach. Blackmail, after all, is the Kim dynasty’s most familiar game.
Yet the U.S. must not budge. An agreement with North Korea remains possible and Trump’s diplomacy deserves support. If Trump blinks now, as recently with China’s Xi Jinping, he’ll only encourage Kim to keep playing dangerous games.
