National Republicans are worried about Don Blankenship’s rise less than 24 hours before polls close in the West Virginia Senate race as they fear a replay of Alabama, where former Judge Roy Moore cost the party a seat nearly five months ago.
Blankenship, a multimillionaire coal executive who was recently in prison in connection with a deadly mining accident, has seen his poll numbers rise to where he is in a dead heat with Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a favorite of conservatives.
This is giving GOP leaders flashbacks to Moore blowing what should have been a slam dunk. Moore lost a Senate seat that had been safely in Republican hands since the 1990s. Blankenship threatens a prime GOP pickup opportunity against incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va.
“It didn’t work out very well in Alabama,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who said he is “confident” West Virginia primary voters will make a “good choice.”
“I obviously think Mr. Blankenship would be problematic as our nominee,” Cornyn said. “Not the best candidate.”
While Republicans were confident as of early last week, there is a growing belief that the debate held by Fox News last Tuesday has become a turning point. Since then, Blankenship’s poll numbers have risen sharply, vaulting him into the top spot as he continues to attack Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and consume the media coverage.
According to one West Virginia GOP operative, campaigns that have knocked on doors in other races say that voters repeatedly are asking how they can get Blankenship signs, especially since the debate. The source also believes Blankenship will win by double digits come Tuesday night, pointing to a poll the campaign released earlier Monday showing him up by 17 points.
“Post the Fox News debate, there seemed to be this real surging for [Blankenship],” the source said. “The entire chattering class here, be it your elitist establishment types even down to your grassroots folks, thought, ‘Wow, Don Blankenship just won that debate.’ And I don’t know if he won so much as it just looked like the other two looked like a bickering old couple.”
Only in recent days have Jenkins and Morrisey gone after Blankenship after having savaged each other throughout the primary, much like Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., did in the 2016 GOP primary, clearing the way for Trump. Also helping matters for Blankenship is a Democratic outside group, the Duty and Country PAC, that has spent $1.8 million against Jenkins in recent weeks.
Trump finally weighed in Monday on the race at the behest of McConnell, saying there is “no way” Blankenship can defeat Manchin in November and warned voters to “remember Alabama.” Almost on cue, Blankenship did just that by invoking the president’s support for Moore last fall, a candidate he noted was “accused of pedophilia in Alabama.”
If Blankenship pulls off a victory over Jenkins and Morrisey, questions still surround how national Republicans would react. It remains an open question if the National Republican Senatorial Committee would back Blankenship against Manchin. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., the NRSC’s co-chairman, said Monday that he’s not sure how they would proceed.
“I’m not sure that we would [support Blankenship]. I think we have to take a look at how the election turns out,” Tillis said. “I hope that’s only a hypothetical.”
However, Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., speaking to the Washington Examiner on April 18, left the door open to the NRSC backing the recently imprisoned coal baron, saying he believed the state’s general election will be competitive “no matter what happens,” repeating the line once more.
“The people of West Virginia will send a Republican who can win in November. The [NRSC] is going to be for winning in this seat,” Gardner said. “I believe whoever the Republican nominee is, we can win.”
For Republicans, it all goes back to the Moore situation when multiple Republican senators, including Cornyn, endorsed Moore before retracting their endorsements in the wake of allegations that Moore had sexual relations with underage girls. That was the argument made by Trump and his son, Donald Trump Jr., in recent days, as the GOP looks to keep Blankenship out of a November matchup with Manchin, who Republicans believe to be vulnerable against a solid candidate.
Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., the lone Republican to openly back Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala., predicted that he, along with other GOP senators, will support Manchin against Blankenship, adding that he would also do so financially.
The prospect of a Blankenship candidacy seemed improbable to many in Washington, with his one year in prison for his role in the 2010 explosion at the Upper Big Branch Mine, which killed 29 workers. However, those in the state are not shocked one bit by Blankenship’s rise. The West Virginia GOP source pointed to his efforts to explain his conviction and his hiring of an all-West Virginia political team — the only one of the top three to do so.
All of this has left Republicans looking to the heavens for some divine intervention. When asked what would happen if Blankenship wins on Tuesday, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., said he didn’t know.
“Let’s just hope and pray that doesn’t happen,” he added.
