The Trump campaign’s cash crunch is limiting the president’s strategic options as he battles to overtake Democratic nominee Joe Biden, with Republicans warning the shortfall is undercutting plans to expand the map of competitive states and jeopardizing outreach to key voters.
Last month, Biden outraised President Trump in August by more than $150 million. That steep financial disparity heading into the critical, post-Labor Day period, combined with the Trump campaign’s heavy burn rate for several previous months, forced the cancellation of millions of dollars in battleground state ads. Biden countered with a major buy across television and digital platforms that went virtually uncontested in some crucial media markets.
With seven weeks until Election Day and early voting underway, Republican strategists worry that Biden’s advertising advantage could drown out Trump’s message to voters who have not committed to voting for him. Republicans also fret the Trump campaign’s tighter budget leaves fewer resources to capitalize on any political updraft and press Biden in states that might break in his direction down the stretch.
“When you are being outspent, the key becomes training the resources you do have on the absolute crucial targets that still lead you to victory,” said Nick Everhart, a Republican media consultant in Ohio. “In a presidential race, that means not spreading spending thin and trying to keep pace everywhere but focusing it in on your absolute must-win states to hit 270.”
The Trump campaign is eyeing states that voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 to create additional routes to the 270 Electoral College votes the president needs to win reelection, including Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Some Republican insiders also see hopeful signs that New Mexico is growing competitive. But strategic flexibility requires resources, and it is unclear if the Trump campaign can afford to prosecute a blue-state offensive.
Trump’s priority, Republicans say, should be protecting his flank in the more than a half dozen traditional presidential battlegrounds, plus traditionally red states Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. With money pouring into Biden’s campaign, the former vice president might be better positioned to press Trump in emerging swing states in the Sun Belt. This month, Biden has dominated the president on the airwaves in Arizona, and Republicans say the GOP ticket is suffering there as a result.
“They were off the air for eight days in Arizona,” said a GOP operative who is monitoring the state. “It’s a big problem.”
But Trump holds an edge on one important facet of the campaign. His voter turnout operation has been up and running and active in targeted communities for more than a year, thanks to a large investment most of which has long since been paid for and does not rely on unpredictable fundraising. Biden had to build his field operation amid a pandemic and after fighting through a competitive primary.
Meanwhile, even as the Biden campaign’s get-out-the-vote effort remains on virtual footing to prevent spreading the coronavirus, the Trump campaign, in concert with the Republican National Committee, has been back in the field since last month and brags that it is knocking on 1 million doors per week. Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said in an interview with Politico this week that her virtual voter turnout program is getting the job done.
But field strategists in both parties have, for years, believed that knocking on doors and engaging in in-person, one-on-one conversations with targeted voters is the most effective strategy for locking down support for a candidate and ensuring that votes are cast. And the comparison between the Biden and Trump ground strategies is reassuring Republicans that the president is positioned to come from behind as long as the contest stays close.
“There’s one campaign that has a grassroots operation — and it’s Trump’s,” said Jeff Burton, a Republican strategist in Texas. “He’s knocking on 1 million doors a week. Biden is knocking on zero.”
