We have previously written of the need to be skeptical about polls at this stage of the presidential race. This need is underscored by an unprecedented combination of events creating more uncertainty than standard run-ups to November elections.
But the preponderance of recent grim poll findings for President Trump is a warning sign for him. If he cannot convince the public in the next five months that he can lead during a crisis, he is likely to lose.
Recent months have been among the worst periods of our history. America was hit by a pandemic that has killed more than 100,000 people, the economy is ravaged in a way not seen since the Great Depression, and now, riots, vandalism, arson, and looting grip major cities on a scale not seen since the 1960s. Trump’s handling of these events has not earned him high marks from voters.
Just 32% of registered voters told Morning Consult that they found Trump’s handling of the mass demonstrations to be good or better, compared to 56% who said it was “only fair” or “poor.” Voters by a 10 point margin trust Joe Biden more to handle the spread of the coronavirus. Even when it comes to the economic recovery, supposed to be Trump’s strong suit, voters favored Biden, albeit by only 1 point.
When it comes to the horse race, Biden is leading Trump by nearly 8 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average. On the same day four years ago, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by just 1.5 points. Trump could lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College as he did last time, but not if the national gap stays as wide as polls say it is now.
More worrisome for Trump should be recent state polling, which not only shows him falling behind in swing states, but also finds Biden making traditionally red states competitive. Recent Fox News polls had Biden up by 2 points in Ohio, by 4 in Arizona, and by 9 in Wisconsin, all states Trump won last time and needs again. A Quinnipiac poll, meanwhile, found Trump with only a narrow 44%-43% edge in Texas, a statistical tie where Republicans have had a lock for decades.
It can be argued that the pandemic hit most Western nations hard, and many nations in Europe did worse than the United States. The economic collapse was accelerated by lockdown orders. Racial tensions over policing long preceded Trump, as shown by the rioting in Ferguson and Baltimore during the Obama presidency. In all cases, problems could also be blamed on incompetent decisions by state and local officials.
But shifting blame will be difficult for Trump. He campaigned on the idea that he was a successful businessman who could get things done in a way that “all talk, no action” politicians could not. He also ran as somebody who would restore law and order to cities.
He still intends to run on this message this fall. In an oddly phrased statement, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany tweeted on Wednesday, “Under President @realDonaldTrump’s leadership, there will be NO burning of churches, looting of businesses, destruction of property, and assaults on civilians and police. America will unite in LAW AND ORDER!”
It is odd to use the future tense, as though Trump were not president now, when all those things are happening.
Voters in the past have sometimes stuck with presidents during trying times because they thought those leaders could help guide them. But Trump is failing at present to convince people that he can provide calm and steady leadership. If he does not find a way to do so, he’s unlikely to convince them that he deserves a second term.
