American adversaries and rogue nations around the world sense a “power vacuum” in the United States in the final days of the 2020 presidential elections that raises the risk of foreign policy crises, allied sources fear.
“In our region, we feel that America doesn’t have time, wish, or resources or political will to devote attention, and we also feel some kind of vacuum,” a Baltic official said. “We feel the absence of America from our region, and this absence has some negative connotations.”
The proliferation of that sentiment has left allies feeling more vulnerable to threats from Russia and China over the coming weeks. It may account even for the hardening of disputes within the U.S. alliance network, such as the recent surge in aggressive foreign policy moves by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“Erdogan is becoming more prone to risk-taking,” Greek lawmaker Dimitrios Kairidis told the Washington Examiner. “He feels a bit more emboldened, the closer we go to the elections. In his mind now, he sees a power vacuum in Washington he wants to exploit.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin feels a similar sense of freedom, the Baltic official suggested. That assessment is linked to the recent controversy in Washington over whether Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is using his diplomatic post to aid President Trump’s reelection campaign — Democratic critics have faulted him for holding official events in battleground states such as Wisconsin — has contributed to that unease abroad.
“It might be connected to the election cycle. Secretary Pompeo is very much involved in internal politics now,” the Baltic official said. “The facts are, America’s leadership is missed here.”
Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper have maintained busy travel schedules in recent weeks, sometimes in the face of domestic critics who suggest that “the concern about continuity of government” following Trump’s recent coronavirus diagnosis should have curtailed their itineraries. Pompeo traveled through the eastern Mediterranean last month, in an implicit rebuke of Erdogan’s truculence. He returned to the U.S. for an event in Florida and then departed immediately for Tokyo to meet with leaders from Japan, Australia, and India.
Esper, that same week, visited four North African nations and Kuwait. And Deputy Secretary of State Steve Biegun traveled to Russia and Eastern Europe two months ago, in a diplomatic tour designed in part to deter the Kremlin from launching any military intervention. White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien suggested that U.S. officials are avoiding more overt displays of support for the protesters against Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko in order to avoid triggering a worse crisis.
“We don’t want to come in and be accused of fomenting another color revolution that would give license to the Russians or Lukashenko or someone to crack down on these protesters,” O’Brien said during an Aspen Institute event Friday. “The problem with that we have with the Russians is there’s not a lot left to sanction.”
Kairidis offered his assessment of Erdogan amid a standoff between Athens and Ankara, exacerbated by the Turkish leader’s reported use of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. His apparent test-firing of the advanced Russian weaponry raises the likelihood that the U.S. will impose sanctions required by a federal law known as CAATSA that is designed to drive customers away from Russia’s defense industry —and it may reflect his expectation that Trump is going to lose to Joe Biden in November, another Erdogan observer surmised
“Trump is more likely to pick lighter sanctions, compared to Biden,” said former Turkish lawmaker Aykan Erdemir, an Erdogan critic at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Maybe from Erdogan’s perspective, it’s better to be done with CAATSA sanctions now than later.”
The risk of a crisis could increase if the results of the presidential election are disputed or unknown, allies worry. China’s saber-rattling around Taiwan has raised the specter of a confrontation between the mainland communist regime and the government in Taipei.
“I think between the U.S. election to inauguration might be a very critical moment,” an Asian official said. “If Trump is reelected, maybe [we see] just the status quo, but if Trump has failed, and then, he never accepts the result, and the situation becomes very confusing … if the U.S. president’s position is not clear during [that] period, I don’t know whether the U.S. could aid or help Taiwan.”
Another Indo-Pacific official, who agreed that chaotic American elections increase the risk of clashes elsewhere in the world, nevertheless downplayed the likelihood of a major crisis with China.
“It would require a very, very close clear assessment by the Chinese as to their assessment on how they believe this administration would react,” the source said. “But I think it’s too risky. It’s too risky for the option.”
The misgivings underscore the degree to which the acrimonious 2020 campaign is felt overseas, but Esper emphasized this week that the U.S. is prepared for any sudden crisis.
“The question we must answer is this: If called upon to fight tonight, are we ready?” Esper said during an address to the Heritage Foundation. “I am fully confident the answer to that question is a resounding yes.”
