US INSISTS IRAN ARMS EMBARGO REINSTATED, ALLIES DISAGREE: On Sunday, according to the United Nations, a decadelong arms embargo on Iran expired, which in theory would allow the Islamic Republic to buy foreign weapons and sell its own armaments abroad.
Despite an overwhelming rejection two months ago by the U.N. Security Council of the American proposal to “snapback” all sanctions on Iran — only the Dominican Republic voted with the United States — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insists that as of yesterday, the embargo is back on.
U.S. allies on the 15-member council, including Britain and Germany, argue the U.S gave up its right to trigger snapback sanctions when it withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. In a statement yesterday, Pompeo ignored that argument and threatened retaliation for anyone who defies the U.S.
“The United States is prepared to use its domestic authorities to sanction any individual or entity that materially contributes to the supply, sale, or transfer of conventional arms to or from Iran, as well as those who provide technical training, financial support and services, and other assistance related to these arms,” Pompeo said.
“For the past 10 years, countries have refrained from selling weapons to Iran under various UN measures. Any country that now challenges this prohibition will be very clearly choosing to fuel conflict and tension over promoting peace and security,” he said.
‘A MOMENTOUS DAY’: Iran hailed the expiration of the embargo, which it claimed effectively terminated “all restrictions on the transfer of arms, related activities, and financial services to and from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
“A momentous day for the international community, which — in defiance of malign U.S. efforts — has protected UNSC Res. 2231 and JCPOA,” tweeted Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. “Today’s normalization of Iran’s defense cooperation with the world is a win for the cause of multilateralism and peace and security in our region.”
Russia, which along with China, is among the countries most likely to defy the ban and sell weapons to Iran, rejected the U.S. threat.
Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Dmitry Polyansky, responded to Pompeo with a tweet in which he accused the U.S. of provoking Iran by pumping arms into the Middle East. “And please change words ‘sanctions’ and ‘punishment’ in your vocabulary to ‘dialogue’ and ‘engagement.’ That would help a lot!”
IRAN’S SHOPPING LIST: Last year, the Defense Intelligence Agency predicted that if the embargo ended, Iran likely would try to purchase Russian Su-30 fighter jets, Yak-130 trainer aircraft, T-90 tanks, and possibly the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, according to the Associated Press.
SUPPORT FOR THE US POSITION: Six Gulf Arab nations, along with Israel, back the extension of the arms embargo, noting Iran has already been surreptitiously supplying arms to Houthi rebels in Yemen.
“If the world allows Iran to import conventional weapons, it will only use them to fuel regional and global terror,” tweeted the Embassy of Israel in the U.S. “We cannot reward Iran’s dangerous behavior.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: A trio of former national security advisers will discuss “The Future of U.S. National Security” at an Atlantic Council event at 10 a.m. The former assistants to the president for national security affairs include retired Gen. Jim Jones, Robert McFarlane, and John Bolton.
Bolton, in an interview that aired on CNN last night, predicted that President Trump will not accept defeat if he loses the election. “Let’s be clear: Trump will not leave graciously if he loses. He will not leave graciously,” he told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “Whether he carries it to the extreme, I don’t think we know.”
‘MOST FLAWED PERSON I HAVE EVER MET’: The Bolton interview was part of a CNN program, “The Insiders: A Warning from Former Trump Officials,” which featured former administration officials who have turned against the president since they left office or were fired by Trump.
The harshest condemnation came from former White House chief of staff retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, who reportedly told friends that “the depths of [Trump’s] dishonesty is just astounding to me. The dishonesty, the transactional nature of every relationship, though it’s more pathetic than anything else. He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.”
‘KISSES DICTATORS’ BUTTS’: With polls suggesting Trump could be headed for defeat, which could also put GOP control of the Senate at risk, Republicans are becoming increasingly emboldened to criticize the president and distance themselves from his personality, if not his policies.
In an audio recording of a telephone conference call with constituents last week obtained by Washington Examiner Senior Political Correspondent David Drucker, Republican Sen. Ben Sasse said Trump “kisses dictators’ butts” and “sells out our allies.”
“The way he kisses dictators’ butts. I mean, the way he ignores that the Uighurs are in literal concentration camps in Xinjiang right now. He hasn’t lifted a finger on behalf of the Hong Kongers,” Sasse is heard to say. “The United States now regularly sells out our allies under his leadership. The way he treats women and spends like a drunken sailor, the ways I criticized President Obama for that kind of spending, I criticized President Trump for as well. He mocks evangelicals behind closed doors. His family has treated the presidency like a business opportunity. He’s flirted with white supremacists.”
TRUMP FIGHTS BACK WITH TAUNT: “The least effective of our 53 Republican Senators, and a person who truly doesn’t have what it takes to be great, is Little Ben Sasse of Nebraska, a State which I have gladly done so much to help,” Trump tweeted Saturday, calling Sasse a RINO (Republican In Name Only).
“Sasse was as nice as a RINO can be until he recently won the Republican nomination to run for a second term. Then he went back to his rather stupid and obnoxious ways. Must feel he can’t lose to a Dem. Little Ben is a liability to the Republican Party, and an embarrassment to the Great State of Nebraska.”
TALIBAN OFFENSIVE UNDERMINES PEACE EFFORT: The Taliban’s recent 10-day assault in southern Helmand province is being condemned by U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad in a series of tweets.
Khalilzad says the offensive, along with complaints by the Taliban about U.S. airstrikes defending Afghan forces, are counter to the spirit of the Feb. 29 agreement that was supposed to reduce the level of violence in the country to pave the way for peace talks.
“Unfounded charges of violations and inflammatory rhetoric do not advance peace. Instead, we should pursue strict adherence to all articles of the U.S.-Taliban Agreement and U.S.-Afghanistan Joint Declaration and not neglect the commitment to gradually reduce violence,” Khalilzad said.
“Continued high levels of violence can threaten the peace process and the agreement and the core understanding that there is no military solution. Violence today remains distressingly high in spite of the recent reaffirmation of the need for substantial reduction.”
“The belief that says violence must escalate to win concessions at the negotiating table is very risky,” he added. “Such an approach can undermine the peace process and repeats past miscalculations by Afghan leaders. We must adhere to the letter and spirit of what was negotiated and the recent understanding.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Robert O’Brien reiterates 2,500 troops will remain in Afghanistan past Christmas
Washington Examiner: A ‘great win’ for Russia: Turkey defies NATO to test fire S-400 anti-aircraft weapons
Washington Examiner: US tells Taiwan ‘to fortify itself’ to repel invasion from China
Washington Examiner: Iranian dissident group claims to have revealed hidden site in Iran used for nuclear program
Washington Examiner: Opinion: It is in Trump’s interest to condemn the poisoning of Alexey Navalny
Washington Examiner: Trump’s former chief of staff calls him ‘the most flawed person I have ever met’: Report
Washington Post: Despite its 10-day assault in Helmand, Afghan Taliban accuse U.S. military of violating February accord
New York Times: A Storied Female Warlord Surrenders, Taliban Say, Exposing Afghan Weakness
AP: Afghans say preventing next war as vital as ending this one
Washington Post: ISIS attacks surge in Africa even as Trump boasts of a ‘100-percent’ defeated caliphate
CBS 60 Minutes: Alexey Navalny on the poisoning attack he survived and why he thinks Putin was behind it
Bloomberg: Europe Is Still Wide Open To Russian Information-Warfare Attacks
Wall Street Journal: China Warns It May Arrest Americans
USNI News: China Arming Venezuelan Navy With Anti-Ship Missiles
Stars and Stripes: USS Barry cruises through Taiwan Strait after Beijing blasts McCain’s South China Sea transit
AP: Israel, Bahrain sign deal establishing formal ties
Air Force Magazine: Space Force Grappling With How to Define Readiness
Business Insider: Amphibious Assault Vehicles That Sink Are ‘Death Traps’ for the Troops Inside, Marine Veterans Say After Fatal Accident
Marines Corps Times: Historic Marine Harrier Squadron Sunsets As The Corps Looks To The F-35
Military Times: Watch The Guided-Missile Destroyer Winston Churchill Help Iranian Ship In Arabian Sea
FDD: With S-400 Escalation, Turkey Tests NATO
Calendar
MONDAY | OCTOBER 19
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Reimagining reform: Innovation in Ukraine,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Dmytro Sennychenko, executive chairman of the State Property Fund of Ukraine; James Brooke, editor-in-chief of the Ukraine Business News; and Aura Sabadus, senior journalist at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
9:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Assessing Beijing’s Growing Influence in the International System,” with House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif.; Wendy Leutert, assistant professor at Indiana University; Samantha Custer, director of policy analysis at AidData; Robert Williams, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings; and Homi Kharas, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events/global-china
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center webcast: “New START and the Future of U.S.-Russia Arms Control,” Lynn Rusten, vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative’s Global Nuclear Policy Program; Feodor Voitolovsky, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations; and Matthew Rojansky, director of the WWC Kennan Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/new-start
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The Future of U.S. National Security,” with a panel of former national security advisers, including former Assistants to the President for National Security Affairs Gen. James Jones, Robert McFarlane, and John Bolton. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
11 a.m. — Advanced Manufacturing Olympics with Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; and Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett. https://www.afrso.com/advanced-manufacturing-olympics
11 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “China’s Eight Deadly Sins in Trade Policy,” with Peter Navarro, assistant to the president and director of the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy; and Michael Pillsbury, Chinese strategy director at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Sustaining the Undersea Advantage: Disrupting Anti-Submarine Warfare Using Autonomous Systems,” with former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert; former U.S. Naval Forces Europe Commander Adm. James Foggo; Curt VonBraun, technical director for naval power at Raytheon Technologies; Seth Cropsen, director of the Hudson Center for American Seapower; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology. https://www.hudson.org/events
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual seminar: “Taiwan and the Future of U.S.-China Strategic Competition,” with former Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Affairs Randall Schriver, chairman of Project 2049; Michael Mazza, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Dexter Tiff Roberts, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, China reporter at Axios; and Miyeon Oh, director of the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 20
11 a.m. — Lockheed Martin Corporation webcast to release earnings for the third quarter of 2020. https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/events/event
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Improving Counterterrorism and Law Enforcement Cooperation Between the United States and the Arab Gulf,” with Assistant Homeland Security Secretary for International Affairs Valerie Boyd. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
12 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar: “Iran and the U.S. – A Critical Juncture,” Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East fellow at the German Marshal Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion on “The Luckiest Man: Life with John McCain,” with author Mark Salter and former Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn. https://www.mccaininstitute.org/events/authors-insights
12 p.m. — McCain Institute for International Leadership virtual book talk on The Luckiest Man: Life with John McCain, with McCain’s longtime adviser, coauthor and friend Mark Salter; and McCain Institute Trustee and former Sen. Joseph Lieberman. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/authors-insights
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council fireside chat: “Strengthening U.S. alliances and partnerships in an era of great-power competition,” with Defense Secretary Mark Esper and with Atlantic Council CEO Frederick Kempe. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security Fireside Chat with Brett Goldstein, director, Defense Digital Service, with CNAS senior fellows Susanna Blume and Paul Scharre. https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register
3 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Iran and North Korea: Proliferation and Regional Challenges for the Next Administration,” with Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center; Eric Edelman, practitioner-in-practice at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Robert Einhorn, senior fellow at Brookings; Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at Brookings; and Jung Pak, chair in Korea studies at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events/iran-and-north-korea
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 21
9 a.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” forum with Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chief of staff of the Air Force. Invitation only. Video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org.
9:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “The Future of the U.S.-Philippines Alliance,” with former U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines Tom Hubbard, Renato DeCastro, professor at De La Salle University; and William Wise, nonresident fellow at Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/event
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual media briefing on “U.S. Policy Toward Taiwan,” with Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia at CSIS; and Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project. https://www.csis.org/events/csis-press-briefing
12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conference: “International Security at the Nuclear Nexus,” with Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
12 p.m. — Washington Space Business Roundtable webinar on “the profound strategic impact of China’s space activities on U.S. interests,” with Nicholas Eftimiades, professor at Penn State University. https://www.wsbr.org/events/virtual-program
4:30 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance webinar with Katie Arrington, chief information security officer in the Office of the Defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. https://www.insaonline.org/event
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 22
8 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Arms Control and Strategic Stability: Chinese Perspectives,” with retired Chinese Gen. Yao Yunzhu, director of the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Center of China-American Defense Relations; Li Bin, professor at Tsinghua University; Frank Rose, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy and Technology; and Lindsey Ford, fellow in the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies. https://www.brookings.edu/events/arms-control
8:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “Multilateralism and Armed Drones: Escaping the Gridlock,” with William Malzahn, senior policy adviser in the State Department’s Office of Conventional Arms Threat Reduction; UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial Killings Agnes Callamard; Maritza Chan, deputy permanent representative of the mission of Costa Rica to the UN; Wim Zwijnenburg, humanitarian disarmament project leader at PAX; and Rachel Stohl, vice president of Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/event
9 a.m. — Northrop Grumman Corporation conference call to announce its third quarter 2020 financial results. http://investor.northropgrumman.com
9:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual book discussion on Undaunted: My fight Against America’s Enemies, At Home and Abroad, with author John Brennan, former CIA director; and David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
10 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual 2020 Genius Machines Summit, with Jane Pinelis, test, evaluation and assessment chief at the Defense Department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Andrew Brooks, chief data scientist at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Douglas Terrier, NASA chief technologist; and Eileen Vidrine, chief data officer at the Air Force. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/genius-machines
12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Toward a Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Relationship,” with Richard Bush, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies; Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project; and Michael Green, Japan chair at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
12:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conference: “International Security at the Nuclear Nexus,” with former Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
TBA — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Nuclear Deterrence” forum with Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Invitation only. Video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org.
9 p.m. Nashville, Tenn. — Belmont University hosts the third presidential debate of 2020 with President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 23
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “The Defense Industrial Base and the Future of Warfare,” with Rep. Anthony Brown, D-Md.; Mitch Snyder, president and CEO of Bell; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Tackling the Pandemic in Situations of Fragility, Conflict, and Violence, with Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations Denise Natali; Franck Bousquet, senior director of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence; and James Schear, adjunct senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 27
3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation webcast: “The Fight to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine: The Inside Story of the Administration’s Operation Warp Speed,” with Army Gen. Gus Perna, chief operating officer for Operation Warp Speed; and Matthew Hepburn, M.D., head, vaccine development, Operation Warp Speed. https://www.heritage.org/public-health/event
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 28
9 a.m. — General Dynamics conference call webcast to release third-quarter 2020 financial results. https://www.gd.com/
10:30 a.m. — The Boeing Company releases financial results for the third quarter of 2020, with President and CEO David Calhoun and CFO Greg Smith, executive vice president of enterprise operations. https://investors.boeing.com/investors
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 30
5:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion “Airmen in the Fight: AFA Roll Call” with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I just think we have jumped the shark, crossed the Rubicon, and now we’re on the crazy train about to run into the ice cliffs that guard the flat Earth.”
Rep. Denver Riggleman, R-Va., on a QAnon-linked conspiracy theory, retweeted by President Trump, that Navy SEALs were killed to cover up a plot involving an Osama bin Laden body double.
