Trump’s vows of swift military action give way to methodical preparations for coordinated strike on Syria

ON THE BRINK: The pieces are slowly beginning to fall into place for President Trump’s promised missile attack to show Syrian President Bashar Assad that he must pay a heavy price for the use of chemical weapons on his own people. There are a number of signs that eventual military action is inevitable, if not imminent. After the president’s national security team huddled at the White House late yesterday, press secretary Sarah Sanders issued a statement saying Trump had not yet ordered a strike. “No final decision has been made,” Sanders said.

ALLIES ON BOARD: British Prime Minister Theresa May avoided the mistake of David Cameron, who asked Parliament to vote on joining the U.S. in military action. A poll by the Times of London shows only a fifth of British voters support the move, and you may recall when President Obama sought British support for a strike on Syria in 2013, it was the vote in Parliament that sank the plan.

Instead, May has the approval of her Cabinet to proceed with planning for military action, news she shared with Trump in a phone call last night. “They agreed it was vital that the use of chemical weapons did not go unchallenged, and on the need to deter the further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime,” according to a readout from the British embassy in Washington. “They agreed to keep working closely together on the international response.”

BURDEN OF PROOF: British media reported that at the emergency Cabinet meeting, May was presented more evidence Assad had used banned chemical weapons — not just chlorine gas but also a nerve agent — against the residents of East Douma, a suburb of Damascus. “The Prime Minister said it was a shocking and barbaric act which killed up to 75 people, including children, in the most appalling and inhumane way,” said a Downing Street spokesman.

In his testimony before the House Armed Services committee yesterday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was more cautious. “I believe there was a chemical attack, and we’re looking for the actual evidence,” he said, noting that inspectors for the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons were still hoping to get access to the site of the attack. “We will not know from this investigating team that goes in — if we get them in, if the regime will let them in — we will not know who did it. They can only say that they found evidence, or did not.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley told NBC “we definitely have enough proof,” adding “but now, we just have to be thoughtful in our action.”

WAIT FOR THE INSPECTORS? The OPCW says it expects to have its experts on the ground by tomorrow, but it’s still unclear what access they will be given. The fact that they are in Damascus and the Douma suburb does not mean the U.S could not strike targets elsewhere in Syria.

But it could be a factor in the timing, says House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry. “I think it’s important that we not say when or how or where we may act,” Thornberry told Fox News yesterday. “Clearly, if Assad allows these chemical inspectors in, we will be very cautious about anything that could endanger them. But at the same time, I don’t think most people believe there’s a high likelihood he’s going to let actual inspectors in to prove what he has done, which is a terrible atrocity.”

ON WHOSE AUTHORITY? Some constitutional scholars say Trump lacks the authority to take action against Syria’s military because it did not attack the U.S. first, in accordance with War Powers Resolution of 1973. They argue Trump needs congressional authorization.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is calling for a new Authorization for the Use of Military Force. But Mattis argued yesterday that just like last year, the U.S. can act to stop the use of banned weapons.

“I believe that authority’s under Article II. We have forces in the field, as you know, in Syria, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria is not something that we should assume that, well, because he didn’t use them on us this time, he wouldn’t use them on us next time,” Mattis said. “Some things are simply inexcusable, beyond the pale, and in the worst interest of not just the Chemical Weapons Convention, but of civilization itself.”

PLACES EVERYONE: The long lead up to the strike has given everyone plenty of time to prepare, including the enemy. The Institute for the Study of War has put together a map that shows how Syria, Russia and Iran have moved their military assets around to try to shield them from attack. “Iranian proxies are repositioning in order to mitigate the effects of a strike.” You can see a larger version of the map here.

MIL Movements 20180412

MATTIS — ‘KEEP OUR FOOT ON THE NECK OF ISIS’: Mattis reiterated in his congressional testimony that he sees the sole mission of the U.S. in Syria is to defeat the Islamic State. “We are not going to engage in the civil war itself,” he said. “We are committed to ending that war through the Geneva process and the U.N.-orchestrated effort. … We work with the international community, the United Nations to get the Geneva process underway and make certain that we don’t allow this war to go on.”

But he said, “Our strategy remains the same as a year ago. It is to drive this to a U.N.-brokered peace, but, at the same time, keep our foot on the neck of ISIS until we suffocate it.”

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: At Russia’s request, the U.N. Security Council has scheduled another emergency meeting for 10 a.m. on the possible strikes on Syria by the U.S. and its allies, which Russia says poses a threat to international peace. Russia, backed by China and Bolivia, have requested a briefing by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

MATTIS WANTS IRAN DEAL ‘FIXED’: Unless the Iran nuclear deal gets modified it may not survive, Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee yesterday. “I think it needs to be fixed,” he said. Mattis had previously testified that Iran was in compliance, and it was in America’s national security interest to remain in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump has criticized as one of the worst deals in history. Now, both the secretary and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, who called the deal “insufficient” on Thursday, appear to be on the same page as Trump as a May deadline approaches for reaffirming the deal.

Mattis said the administration is working with the European allies who are signatories on three areas that are considered to be needed fixes to the 2015 agreement, though he would not say what those areas are. “If those three areas can be addressed, then perhaps it can be saved,” Mattis said. “If we can fix most of it, will that be sufficient? I don’t know right now.”

Dunford said he believes Iran remains compliant with the nuclear deal but told lawmakers, “I can’t share that with you right now” when asked what he will recommend to Trump. “I think from my perspective we want to make sure all of Iran’s malign activity is addressed — nuclear activity, cyber activity, missile activity, maritime threats,” he said.

POMPEO: TRUMP CAN BE PERSUADED: In his nomination hearing to be secretary of state, Mike Pompeo said Trump could be persuaded to remain in the Iran nuclear agreement next month “if we’re close” to an agreement to improve the pact’s flaws, writes Joel Gehrke.

Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and picked Pompeo as his successor in March, just two months before a May 12 deadline to decide whether to bring back the economic sanctions that Obama waived when the Iran deal was first implemented. “I want to fix this deal,” Pompeo said. “That’s the objective. I think that’s in the best interest of [the United States].”

DENUCLEARIZING NORTH KOREA: Asked point blank yesterday if he believes North Korea will actually negotiate away its nuclear arsenal, Pompeo said, “The historic analysis there is not optimistic. It is almost a talisman that there is not enough [pressure], there is not enough capacity for Kim Jong Un to make the decision to give up his nuclear weapons arsenal.”

Pompeo says he has studied past failed negotiations and talked to some of the people who took part in the efforts. “In each case, America and the world really [ended] their sanctions too quickly. That is we didn’t have the verifiable irreversible deal that we hoped that we had. And in each case, the North Koreans walked away from that deal. It is the intention of the president and the administration to not do that this time.”

IF TALKS FAIL: Dunford had a sober warning for House members yesterday, saying North Korea could begin building missiles at a pace that the U.S. would not be able to defend against.

“I think I can say with confidence that we can defend against the capability that North Korea has today, the specific capabilities, and the numbers of missiles that they can field that can reach the United States,” Dunford said. “We could never create a defense against a growing serial production missile capability by the North Koreans. So the North Koreans would be able to hold us at risk, were they to go into serial production with the numbers of missiles that would exceed our ability to defend.”

GUARD DEPLOYMENT ‘NOT LONG-TERM’: During his testimony yesterday, Mattis also said the deployment of National Guard troops to the Mexico border is meant to buy time for the Border Patrol and not part of a longer effort by the Pentagon.

“Right now, this is not a long-term deployment,” Mattis said. A plan by Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen calls on the Pentagon to send “up to 4,000 [Guard troops] down there until the first of October in a non-law enforcement, no contact with the migrants position to support DHS,” Mattis said. He said the Guard troops will help the Customs and Border Protection agents during a historically busy season for people attempting to illegally cross the U.S. southern border.

“This is the time of year when you’ll see generally an uptick. This is an anticipatory backing up so that the Customs and Border Patrol can put more troops in the field,” he said. Rep. Anthony Brown said the troops could stay for years after Trump said they will stay deployed until his promised Mexico border wall is built. “The president says if the wall gets built, that is one thing. Secretary Nielsen says she needs this reinforcement, that is a second point,” Mattis said. “This is not a long-term strategy, this is a buying-time effort.”

TRANSGENDER SERVICE NOT A ‘CIVIL RIGHTS ISSUE’: The legal fight over transgender troops and a proposed Pentagon policy barring many from service is not an issue of civil rights, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said yesterday. “It is important that this 1 percent who wear this uniform and the cloth of our country, we’re giving up certain civil rights so the other 99 percent can retain their civil rights. We know that, we do it willingly and volunteer to do it,” he said during testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “So, this is not an issue, with respect to transgenders, this is not an issue in my view, this is not a civil rights issue.”

NO DISRUPTION: Milley and Army Secretary Mark Esper also testified yesterday that they had no indication that transgender troops who are already serving are causing any disruption. “No, I received precisely zero reports of issues of cohesion, discipline, morale, and all those sorts of things,” Milley said.

Esper said “nothing has percolated up to my level.” For now, the Army is still operating under the Obama-era policy that allows transgender people to serve openly, enlist and seek treatment, Esper said. “We continue to treat every soldier, transgender and not, with dignity and respect, and ensure that they are well-trained and well-equipped for whatever future fights,” Esper said.

DISPUTE OVER TRANSGENDER TREATMENT: The Pentagon’s proposed policy is on hold as the Trump administration battles active-duty transgender troops and rights groups in federal district court. Its conclusion, based on a review of outside research, that treatment for gender dysphoria is unproven is also under fire from lawmakers. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand said that is “drastically different” than the opinions of medical experts.

“Transgender soldiers have now seen the department’s recommendations and are on notice if the policy is implemented they will get kicked out for seeking care or treatment for their gender dysphoria,” Gillibrand said. “I’m worried that this uncertainty will have a negative impact on these individuals, but also on their units and that fear of these recommendations will stop these soldiers from seeking care.” Rep. Jackie Speier also challenged Mattis over the proposed policy while holding a large photo of Air Force Staff Sgt. Logan Ireland, a transgender service member who served in Afghanistan. “Do you believe that currently serving transgender troops like Staff Sgt. Ireland are a burden to our military?” Speier asked.

“It’s a highly-charged issue from some people’s perspective, and it is under litigation right now. So out of respect for the courts, I will just tell you the current policy stays in effect, the last administration’s policy as directed by the courts,” Mattis said.

Gillibrand and Speier are among a group of Democrats on the House and Senate armed services committees who wrote a letter to Mattis Thursday asking for details on a panel of Pentagon experts who helped write the transgender policy recommendation.

AVIATION ACCIDENTS: Military Times has attracted a lot of attention with its exhaustive analysis of military aviation accidents showing a 40 percent rise in mishaps since sequestration began in 2013. Thornberry cited the study at the opening of yesterday’s hearing on the fiscal 2019 budget, noting “The alarming number of aviation accidents in just the past 3 1/2 weeks reveals how deep the damage goes and the magnitude of the task of repairing and rebuilding our capabilities.”

But at the same time, the results of an accident investigation released yesterday show how hard it can be to isolate a single factor, or blame lack of training or aging aircraft for accidents. In this case, two A-10s were on a night training mission in Nevada. One pilot was an instructor, and the other pilot was getting qualification training, and mistakenly climbed into the airspace of the instructor pilot.

Was lack of training a factor in the training accident? Was the pilot overloaded with tasks? The accident investigation board officially listed the cause of the accident as an “unintentional failure to adhere to established altitude deconfliction procedures,” but also cited other factors including, “task over-saturation, misperception of changing environment, and breakdown in visual scan and environmental conditions affecting vision.”

MATTIS ON TRANSPARENCY WITH THE MEDIA: Pentagon reporters have bristled at the clampdown on information that used to be routine and is now treated as classified by the Pentagon, in part because Mattis has ordered everyone to tighten up on any information that could help the enemy.

But yesterday, Mattis insisted he wants more interaction with the media. “We’re already remote enough from the American people by our size and by our continued focus overseas. We need to be more engaged here at home,” he told House lawmakers.

“I want more engagement with the media, I want you to give your name, I don’t want to read that somebody spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak. I have yet to tell anyone they’re not authorized to speak,” Mattis said when questioned about what is seen as a growing lack of transparency.

“What I don’t want is pre-decisional information, or classified information or any information about upcoming military movements or operations, which is the normal ‘loose lips sink ships’ kind of restriction,” he said.

THE RUNDOWN

AP: Analysis: Putin unlikely to leave strike on Syria unanswered

Defense One: Google is Pursuing the Pentagon’s Giant Cloud Contract Quietly, Fearing An Employee Revolt

Navy Times: Mattis on aviation accidents: ‘We cannot repair our way out’

New York Times: What It’s Like to Endure Aerial Attacks

Reuters: No reward for North Korea without irreversible denuclearization: Pompeo

Stars and Stripes: Mattis: Military cost to build Trump’s border wall could be limited to bombing-range fences

Task and Purpose: War Watch, Day 4: This Syrian Aggression May Or May Not Stand, Man

The Hill: Pompeo confirms ‘a couple hundred’ Russians killed in Syria

Daily Beast: Russian Trolls Denied Syrian Gas Attack—Before It Happened

Foreign Policy: Turkey’s Double ISIS Standard

Military Times: Smith to Mattis: Prepare for lean years

Defense News: Portion of A-10 fleet to move into backup status in lead up to FY25

War on the Rocks: Horns of a Dilemma: When the Director of National Intelligence Came to Austin: Dan Coats on Intel in the 21st Century

Business Insider: China parades aircraft carrier, nuclear submarines through the South China Sea in a massive show of force

Calendar

FRIDAY | APRIL 13

8 a.m. 300 1st St SE. The Nuclear Posture Review and the Columbia Class Deterrent with Navy Vice Adm. Terry Benedict, Director of Navy Strategic Systems Programs. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Military Personnel Posture: FY 2019 with Vice Adm. Robert Burke, Chief of Naval Personnel; Lt. Gen. Gina Grosso, Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower; Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs; and Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands, Army Deputy Chief of Staff. armedservices.house.gov

9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Regaining the Strategic Advantage in an Age of Great Power Competition: A Conversation with Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. hudson.org

12 noon. 1501 Lee Hwy. Defending the Record of U.S. Nuclear Deterrence with Retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, Former Commander of U.S. Strategic Command. mitchellaerospacepower.org

2:30 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Ending Civil Wars: How Can We Succeed with Limited Opportunities? usip.org

MONDAY | APRIL 16

9:30 a.m. 900 S Orme St. Mitchell Hour on Allied Aerospace Power: A Conversation with Gen. David Goldfein, Air Force Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org

1:30 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Hidden Wounds: Trauma and Civilians in the Syrian Conflict. usip.org

4 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The China Mission: George Marshall’s Unfinished War. newamerica.org

7:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The Kalb Report – Putin’s Trump Card. press.org

TUESDAY | APRIL 17

8 a.m. 1001 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Procurement Division Meeting. ndia.org

8:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. China and North Korea: Past, Present, and Future. usip.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Full Committee Hearing on Promoting DOD’s Culture of Innovation with Michael Griffin, Undersecretary of Defense, and Eric Schmidt, Chairman of the Defense Innovation Board. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Full Committee Hearing U.S. Policy in Yemen with David Satterfield, Acting Assistant Secretary of State, and Robert Karem, Assistant Secretary of Defense. foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. Longworth 1334. State Sponsors of Terrorism: An Examination of Iran’s Global Terrorism Network. homeland.house.gov

11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Countering Russian Kleptocracy. hudson.org

11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Countering Illicit Funding of Terrorism: A Congressional Approach with Reps. Steve Pearce and Jim Himes. usip.org

2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy Shipbuilding Programs with James Geurts, Assistant Secretary Of The Navy; Vice Adm. William Merz, Deputy Chief Of Naval Operations; and Lt. Gen. Robert Walsh, Deputy Commandant. armed-services.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Fiscal Year 2019 Budget for Missile Defense and Missile Defeat Programs with John Rood, Undersecretary of Defense; Gen. Lori Robinson, Commander of U.S. Northern Command; Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Director of the Missile Defense Agency; and Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, Commander of Army Space and Missile Defense. armedservices.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 18

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Full Committee Hearing on Oversight and Reform of the Department of Defense “4th Estate.” armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on the U.S. Policy Toward a Turbulent Middle East. foreignaffairs.house.gov

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of U.S.-Romania Missile Defense Cooperation with Romania Ambassador George Cristian Maior. heritage.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Subcommittee Hearing on the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget for Energy, Installations and Environment with Lucian Niemeyer, Assistant Secretary of Defense; Jordan Gillis, Acting Assistant Secretary of the Army; Phyllis Bayer; Assistant Secretary of the Navy; and John Henderson, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2200. Subcommittee Hearing on the Dayton Legacy and the Future of Bosnia and the Western Balkans. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Subcommittee Hearing on Libya Fractured: The Struggle for Unity. foreignaffairs.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on the Ground Force Modernization Budget for 2019 with Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, Military Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Army; Lt. Gen. John Murray, Deputy Chief of Staff; Lt. Gen. Robert Walsh, Commanding General of Marine Corps Combat Development Command; and Brig. Gen. Joe Shrader, Commanding General of Marine Corps Systems Command. armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Russell 222. Hearing on Air Force Modernization with Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch, Military Deputy for Acquisition; Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Deputy Chief Of Staff For Strategic Plans And Requirements; and Brig. Gen. Brian Robinson, Assistant Deputy Chief Of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov

6 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Where the Wind Blew: Film Screening and Discussion. carnegieendowment.org

6:30 p.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Dwight D. Eisenhower Award Dinner. ndia.org

THURSDAY | APRIL 19

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast Series with Lt. Gen Charles Luckey, Chief of the Army Reserve. ausa.org

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on the Posture of the Department of the Navy with Secretary Richard Spencer; Adm. John Richardson, Chief Of Naval Operations; and Gen. Robert Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m.  Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Army Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request Readiness Posture with Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, Deputy Chief of Staff; Lt. Gen. Timothy Kadavy, Director of the Army National Guard; Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, Chief of the Army Reserve; and Lt. Gen. Aundre Piggee, Deputy Chief of Staff. armedservices.house.gov

10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2212. Subcommittee Hearing on Military Health System Reform: Pain Management, Opioids Prescription Management and Reporting Transparency with Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, Director of the Defense Health Agency, and Capt. Mike Colston, Director of Mental Health Policy and Oversight. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. SIGAR launches new report on private sector development in Afghanistan. usip.org

5:30 p.m.  1030 15th St. NW. Dialogue on Combating Religious Extremism and Terror with Sri Sri Ravi Shankar. atlanticcouncil.org

FRIDAY | APRIL 20

6 a.m. 44050 Woodridge Parkway. Washington, D.C. Chapter “Swing for Freedom” Invitation for Golf Outing benefiting USO-Metro. ndia.org

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. From Spark Tank to think tank: A conversation with Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson. aei.org

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. China’s Growing Influence in the Indian Ocean: Implications for the U.S. and Its Regional Allies. hudson.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Some things are simply inexcusable, beyond the pale, and in the worst interest of not just the Chemical Weapons Convention, but of civilization itself.”
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on the suspected use of chemical weapons by Syria on its own citizens.

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