Historic inflation and fears that the economy is near recession are overshadowing other issues and helping Republicans in their mission to wrest back control of Congress.
Inflation, as measured by the most recent consumer price index report, is running at a red-hot 8.2% — staying stubbornly high despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring it down after it hit a multidecade high of 9.1% over the summer. Additionally, the odds of a recession are growing by the week as the Fed keeps aggressively hiking interest rates.
Voters are penalizing President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party for the price hikes. And Republicans sought to press the case against the incumbents. They characterize the high inflation and possible recession as an indictment of Democratic leadership and those running the high-stakes campaigns have been highlighting the issue far above other ones.
“I think the professionals within the business of campaigns have been laser-focused on this,” Jason Roe, a veteran Republican consultant, told the Washington Examiner.
BIDEN HAS DEMOCRATS ‘SLAMMING THEIR HEADS ON A CEILING’ IN SEARCH OF VOTES
Polling bears out the GOP strategy of targeting the economy. A recent survey by the Wall Street Journal found that a mere 19% of voters say the economy is headed in the right direction, down double digits from when the same question was asked in August.
Additionally, nearly half of voters said they think congressional Republicans are best suited to help cool inflation, compared to only 27% who said the same about Democrats. A majority of voters said President Joe Biden’s policies have hurt the economy, compared to just 27% who said they have helped.
Because of the economic situation, Republicans hold a 46% to 44% edge over Democrats when voters are asked which party they will support next week. That is a flip from August, when Democrats held a 3-point advantage over Republicans.
Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and a partner at Firehouse Strategies, told the Washington Examiner that voters will place blame for their economic woes on Democrats, as they are the party in charge. Prior to Biden taking office and Democrats seizing full control of Congress, inflation was running at less than 2%.
“When the economy is soft, the party in power gets punished,” he said. “People are always going to hold accountable the politicians in charge.”
While Republicans have been hammering inflation and the economy hard on the campaign trail, Democrats instead have prioritized rallying voters upset about the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the abortion protections afforded by Roe v. Wade.
The strategy hasn’t been a successful one, as polling indicates that economic issues have overshadowed abortion access and other social issues.
Conant said that Republicans have done a good job neutralizing the abortion issue by “painting Democrats as extremists” on the issue. He also said that abortion and other social issues would likely play a much bigger role in Tuesday’s election if the economy were not doing so poorly.
“When people are worried about affording their next meal, the economy is always going to be top of mind,” Conant said.
One positive economic note that Democrats have been touting is the country’s tight labor market. Unemployment is matching the ultra-low 3.5% level it was at just prior to the pandemic despite the explosive inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the Fed. Other economic indicators, too, suggest commerce is healthy, for now — domestic manufacturing has also proven resilient, as has consumer spending, adjusted for inflation. Still, the public has soured on Democrats’ stewardship because of inflation, which affects all households and particularly those with little financial cushion.
As polling has looked increasingly less favorable for Democrats, the party’s veteran strategists have begun raising concerns and asserted in a joint public memo that Democrats have to end the campaign cycle “on a strong economic argument.”
The group of strategists said that “no Democratic candidate should stop talking about abortion.”
“But going down the stretch, we need to make sure our closing message also talks about the cost of living, inflation and the economy,” they said, adding that “rising costs will beat us if we avoid the issue.”
Meanwhile, Republicans have caught on to the successful strategy of focusing on the economy and using inflation as a cudgel to attack Democrats. Roe said that while there have been some “distractions” with candidates focusing on the 2020 elections rather than the midterm elections, the party’s candidates have largely coalesced around the economy.
“I think we are reaching a point where all the candidates are drafting in behind this economic and inflation issue and feel the potency of it and it’s clearly flipping voters here in the final couple weeks, undecideds are breaking heavily to Republicans,” he said.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
While pollsters have favored Republicans to take control of the House for weeks, many predicted that Democrats would hang on to the Senate just a month ago. Now, the odds are about even for the GOP to also take the Senate.
As of Wednesday, FiveThirtyEight assigns a 53% chance that Republicans take control of the upper house.
