America’s longest war is now its most expensive, and almost all the key indicators are trending the wrong way

• The number of “enemy-initiated attacks” — including those that inflicted casualties — rose in the last three months of 2019, to a level not seen since the Pentagon began tracking them in 2010.
• In September, the month of the Afghan presidential election, there were more attacks than in any month since June 2012. October 2019 had the second highest number of EIA in any month since July 2013.
• At the same time, the Afghan Special Security Forces conducted fewer ground operations, and only 31% of those missions were without U.S. or coalition support. For the year, fewer than half (43%) of all ASSF operations in 2019 were completed independently, compared to 55% in 2018.
• While the number of Afghan military and police is up 7%, the strength of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces stands at 77.5%, roughly 79,000 personnel short of its authorized strength.

NOW AMERICA’S MOST EXPENSIVE WAR: The report notes that the amount of funds appropriated for operations in Afghanistan since 2001, has exceeded the amount allocated for the Iraq war that began in 2003, $776.0 billion as of Sept, 30, 2019 compared to $771.1 billion for Iraq.

“Every time we talk about oversight of our efforts in Afghanistan, I believe we sound like a broken record. It’s America’s longest war, and it’s held that title for a long time now,” said Georgia Republican Rep. Jody Hice, at a House Oversight Subcommittee hearing on Afghanistan strategy this week. “To date, American taxpayers have spent $780 billion on combat operations, $137 billion on reconstruction efforts since 2002. So we’re pushing a trillion dollars here. During that time and in spite of that money, we’ve lost 2,400 courageous American service members during the conflict, and one stat that often is overlooked is over 20,000 who have been wounded in action, many of them very seriously.”

GLIMMER OF OPTIMISM: In testimony at that hearing, John Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction and author of the SIGAR report, said the U.S. is at a pivotal juncture in the Afghanistan war.

“The potential for a peace agreement with the Taliban is greater than at any time in recent history. While reaching a settlement will be challenging, sustaining it will be equally difficult,” Sopko warned. “SIGAR is not taking a position on whether a peace agreement is achievable or practical although we hope for both, nor do we speculate on what provisions it should include … But what SIGAR’s report does do is highlight areas that policymakers should be planning for now because … failing to plan is planning to fail.”

BILLIONS MORE NEEDED: “Afghanistan will require at least $4.6 billion – and perhaps as much as $8.2 billion – of donor funding per year through 2024, the SIGAR report says, citing the World Bank. “Even in a best-case scenario in which the Afghan government’s organically generated revenues doubled to $5 billion, nearly half of all public expenditures would need to be financed by donors.”

The SIGAR report comes ahead of a U.N.-hosted international donors conference later this year. In 2016, world donors meeting in Brussels pledged $15 billion for Afghanistan.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper hosts Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini at the Pentagon this morning. “I will welcome the Italian minister of defense to talk about burden-sharing and strengthening our cooperation through the Defeat-ISIS Coalition,” Esper told reporters yesterday.

The two NATO allies will hold a joint news conference in the Pentagon briefing room at around 11 a.m. which will be streamed live at https://www.defense.gov

ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Kyiv, Ukraine for meetings with President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with Ukraine’s prime, foreign and defense ministers as well as civic leaders.

Pompeo is the highest-ranking American official to visit Ukraine since the impeachment process began last year. The visit comes amid reports that the White House will propose keeping security assistance for Ukraine at current levels when it releases its proposed budget next month.

Pompeo told reporters on his plane en route to Europe that his message to U.S. diplomats in Ukraine will be to “tell them how much we love them, appreciate them, appreciate their family members and their sacrifice, and talk about the important work that the United States and Ukraine will continue to do together to fight corruption inside of that country and to ensure that America provides the support that the Ukrainian people need to ensure that they have a free and independent nation.”

NO ‘COMPLETE WITHDRAWAL’ FROM AFRICA: At his Thursday news conference, Esper once again tried to tamp down fears that the Pentagon is on the verge of a major pivot away from fighting terrorist groups in Africa, as it undergoes what’s called an “economy of force” review of U.S. troop deployments worldwide.

“We’re not going to totally withdraw forces from Africa. Economy of force doesn’t mean complete withdrawal from any continent,” Esper said. “I know the inclination is whenever somebody says, ‘review,’ the word that automatically pops up in our head is ‘reduction,’ right? When we do reviews, I like to say it is a rebalancing, if you will, a right-sizing. In some cases, we will increase; in some cases, we won’t change; in some cases, we will decrease.”

DON’T DOWNSIZE AFRICOM: While Esper was briefing reporters at the Pentagon, Army Gen. Steve Townsend, the U.S. Africa Commander was making the case that he needs all 6,000 troops he has under his command.

“What AFRICOM accomplishes with a few people and a few dollars on a continent three and a half times the size of the continental United States is a bargain for the American taxpayer and low-cost insurance for America in that region,” Townsend told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

He found a sympathetic ear in committee chairman Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Inhofe, who said given Africa’s strategic importance in countering Russia and China it makes no sense to reduce forces there.

“If you look at Africa, you have a total of 6,000 people there and how much are you going to get accomplished with 6,000 people?” Inhofe said noting there are some 75,000 U.S. troops deployed to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, which includes Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

“So if the object here .. is to reduce and to reposition people, you’re talking about … areas where there aren’t enough people to reposition. And that’s a narrow view, but that’s mine.”

WHY NO PATRIOTS? As the Washington Examiner magazine reported earlier this month when powerful Iranian missiles rained down on U.S. troops in Iraq, they had no defense other than to duck and cover, despite billions the U.S. has invested in missile defenses, such as the Patriot missile, which was specifically designed to counter that type of ballistic missile attack.

At the Pentagon yesterday Esper revealed that U.S. Central Commander Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie has now requested Patriot missile batteries to protect troops in Iraq, but the Iraqi government is holding up the deployment.

“We need the permission of the Iraqis, that’s one issue,” Esper said. “There may be others with regard to placement and things like that, more tactical, more operational. So it’s a combination of things.”

WOULD PATRIOTS HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE? “Could they have shot down these TBMs” … Can’t say for certain, obviously” said Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. “But that is exactly what they’re designed to do, is to shoot down incoming theater ballistic missiles.”

64 US TROOPS NOW DIAGNOSED WITH TBI: The Pentagon updated its tally of the number of U.S. troops that have been diagnosed with “mild traumatic brain injury,” or TBI. There are now 64 reported cases, of which 39 have returned to duty.

At yesterday’s Pentagon news conference, Milley offered an explanation for the initial reports that there were no U.S. casualties as a result of the Iranian missile attack, which he said was based on long-standing categories of wounds.

“There’s three categories of wounded in action that we’ve had for years,” Milley said. “One is VSI, very serious injuries; one is SI, serious injury; and one is NSI, not serious injury. And in this case, the reporting to date indicates mild TBI, which would be in the category of not serious injury.”

Milley noted as the affected troops are monitored that status might change. “These things are cumulative. So if you get multiple concussions, that can manifest itself down the road.”

“We’ll continue to monitor them the rest of their lives, actually, and continue to provide whatever treatment is necessary,” he said. “We take great pride in the fact that these are our own and we’re going to take care of them.”

AUMF REPEAL PASSES HOUSE: As expected, the House voted largely along party lines yesterday, passing two measures that would repeal the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) in Iraq as well as block spending on military action against Iran without approval from Congress.

“Congress passed the 2002 Iraq AUMF to authorize the war against Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. I voted against that resolution,” said Illinois Democrat Jan Schakowsky, after the vote “Saddam Hussein has been dead for over a decade, Iraq is now a fledgling democracy, and the Trump Administration concedes there are no ongoing military operations that independently rely on the legal authority provided by the 2002 AUMF.”

The White House has indicated President Trump would veto the measures in the unlikely event they made it through the Republican majority Senate.

SEXUAL HARASSMENT AND VIOLENCE AT THE SERVICE ACADEMIES: The Pentagon has released its the annual report on sexual harassment and violence at the military service academies for the 2018-2019 academic year, which shows a 32% increase in reports by cadets and midshipmen compared to the previous report released in 2018. The report found that the academies received 149 reports of sexual assault, up from 117 reports received the prior academic year.

“This should not be interpreted as an increase in crime rate, as the next prevalence survey won’t be conducted until the next academic year,” the Pentagon said. “The increase in reporting cannot be interpreted until next year’s prevalence survey, which estimates rates of unwanted sexual contact.”

Key takeaways:

• Students remain hesitant to report sexual assault, fearing negative social, academic, and career impacts.
• Cadets and midshipmen tend not to intervene except in the most obvious situations, and live in cultures tolerant of sexually harassing behavior and alcohol misuse.
• The number of sexual assault reports increased, consistent with the Department’s policy to encourage reporting. However, a reporting rate cannot be determined as a prevalence survey was not conducted.

REACTION: “The results of the DoD’s annual report on sexual harassment & violence at our nation’s military academies are unacceptable,” tweeted Arizona Sen. Martha McSally, herself the victim of sexual assault in the military. “I remain committed to ensuring my provisions in this year’s defense bill to combat military sexual assault are implemented swiftly & to working with DoD leaders to end this cancer in our military.”

“This report is a reflection of what we already know. The Pentagon has repeatedly failed to address the sexual assault crisis gripping its ranks and, as a result, the problem continues to grow,” said retired Air Force Col. Don Christensen, president of Protect Our Defenders, a victims advocacy group.

INDUSTRY WATCH:

Raytheon Company has announced sales for the fourth quarter 2019 of $7.8 billion, up 6.5% compared to $7.4 billion in the fourth quarter 2018. Net sales for the full calendar year were $29.2 billion, up 7.8% compared to $27.1 billion in 2018.

“Raytheon had a very successful year in 2019, delivering record bookings, backlog, sales and operating cash flow,” said Thomas Kennedy, Raytheon Chairman and CEO.

Lockheed Martin has potentially mixed up structural fasteners in most F-35’s, according to the Defense Contract Management Agency, as reported by Air Force Magazine. Hundreds of F-35’s could have the wrong fasteners in “critical areas,” according to the agency, but Lockheed Martin says the problem may not need to be fixed.

“All aircraft produced prior to discovery of this [problem] have titanium fasteners incorrectly installed in locations where the design calls for Inconel,” the F-35 Joint Program Office said in an email to Air Force Magazine.

“Inconel is an alloy of nickel and chromium, and is supposed to be used in places where greater strength and corrosion resistance are required, while the titanium bolts are used in areas where its strength and lightness helps reduce weight. Titanium, however, has a lower shear strength than Inconel.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘They want us to be choirboys’: Special operations troops mock order to behave

Washington Examiner: Memo to Mike Pompeo: Nothing is ever totally off the record

Washington Examiner: ‘We were trying to make the case’: Pompeo got nowhere with push to keep Huawei out of the UK

New York Times: Pompeo Calls China’s Ruling Party ‘Central Threat of Our Times’

Washington Post: Iraq says U.S.-led coalition has resumed operations against ISIS

AP: Macron: Turkey Is Sending Warships, Mercenaries To Libya

Bloomberg: Costliest U.S. Carrier Isn’t Ready to Defend Itself, Tests Show

Breaking Defense: USS Ford Plans New Aggressive Training Schedule At Sea

Air Force Magazine: SOUTHCOM Only Getting 20 Percent of Needed ISR

Stars and Stripes: Poland, Lithuania Add Brigades Near U.S. Presence To Reinforce Border With Russia

Yonhap: U.S. Ready To Respond To Any ‘Late Christmas Gift’ From North Korea – Pentagon Official

Military Times: Coronavirus Could Become A Major Security Threat In Developing Countries, Military Commanders Warn

Washington Post: Trump’s border wall, vulnerable to flash floods, needs large storm gates left open for months

Calendar

FRIDAY | JANUARY 31

8:50 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alex. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Military Radar Summit, with James Faist, director of defense research and engineering for advanced capabilities in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering. https://www.idga.org/events-militaryradarsummit

9.a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Kevin Fahey, assistant secretary of defense for acquisition; and Katie Arrington, the special assistant to the assistant secretary of defense for acquisition for cyber; brief reporters at the Pentagon on cyber security standards for government acquisition. Streamed live at https://www.defense.gov

9 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alex. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Operational Energy Summit, with Lt. Gen. Darrell Williams, director of the Defense Logistics Agency, delivering remarks on “Allocating Resources And Advancing Innovation To Support Logistic Efforts” https://www.idga.org/events-tacticalpowersourcessummit

10 a.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini to the Pentagon, with joint press conference to follow in the Pentagon Briefing Room afterward. Streamed live at https://www.defense.gov

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion “U.S. Naval Posture and Maritime Security in Southeast Asia,” with Zachary Abuza, professor at the Naval War College; Derek Grossman, senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation; Natalie Sambhi, executive director of Verve Research; Bich Tran, former Asia studies visiting fellow at the East-West Center; and Patrick Cronin, Asia Pacific security chair at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

12 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion on “Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Different Ways, Same Goal,” with SangHyun Lee, senior researcher at the Sejong Institute; Yong-Sup Han, former vice president and professor at the Korea National Defense University; Il Soon Hwang, professor at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology; Jenny Town, managing editor of Stimson’s 38 North website; and Clint Work, congressional fellow at the Stimson Center’s Security for a New Century Program https://www.stimson.org

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 5

12 p.m. 1135 16th St. N.W. — American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security luncheon, with remarks by Jason Klitenic, general counsel, Office of the Director of National Intelligence https://www.americanbar.org

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 12

All Day Brussels, Belgium — Defense Secretary Mark Esper attends meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Defense Ministers at the NATO Headquarters, chaired by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 13

All Day Brussels, Belgium — Day two of NATO Defense ministerial at NATO Headquarters, with U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. https://www.nato.int