Absentee ballots begin hitting Wisconsin mailboxes in 16 days, just in time for President Trump to capitalize on civil unrest roiling Kenosha and engineer a comeback in this key Midwestern swing state.
That is what Republicans are hoping for, at least, ahead of Trump’s scheduled Tuesday visit to Kenosha, a modest city of 100,000 situated along Lake Michigan in southeastern Wisconsin. But they are not yet certain it will secure a repeat of his 2016 win in the state.
Trump spent a summer of rising coronavirus infections on defense against Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But rioting in Kenosha late last month after a black man was shot by a white police officer shifted attention from Trump’s unpopular pandemic leadership to public safety. Although the violence occurred on the president’s watch, Republicans are confident the issue is more favorable terrain from which to fight for the suburban swing voters that will decide who wins Wisconsin.
“This is a highly volatile situation that currently plays in Trump’s favor if he can avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” a Wisconsin Republican operative said Monday.
Republicans in Wisconsin credit Democratic Gov. Tony Evers with creating an opening for Trump.
Evers initially refused Trump’s offer for federal assistance, as upheaval in the aftermath of the police shooting of Jacob Blake set downtown Kenosha ablaze, destroying businesses and leading to bloodshed. That decision, Republicans claim, allowed Trump and his allies to make headway with the argument that local Democrats are responsible for the rioting, even though it has been happening under a GOP administration in Washington.
“President Trump needs to get reelected because he is sending in federal help,” Sheriff Michael Slupe, of Butler County, Pennsylvania, said during a Trump campaign conference call. “He is telling these governors: ‘Do your job.’”
Trump remains in great shape with rural and exurban voters in Wisconsin. It’s the suburbs surrounding Milwaukee — the “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington, plus the Fox Valley adjacent to Lake Winnebago, where the president needs to make up ground. Both regions are stocked with voters that often vote Republican but have been drifting from the GOP because of dissatisfaction with the president’s pugilistic style and provocative tweets.
Democrats contend Trump’s message will fail because the turmoil has unfolded on his watch and too many Wisconsin voters view the president as part of the problem. Additionally, Democrats say, voters are sour on Trump’s handling of the racial justice issues behind many of the initial protests, and they see him as a disruptor incapable of diffusing tensions.
“These are images of Donald Trump’s America today. He keeps telling you if only he was president, it wouldn’t happen,” Biden said Monday during a speech in Pittsburgh, where he traveled as part of a new focus on in-person campaigning. “The simple truth is, Donald Trump failed to protect America, so now, he’s trying to scare America.”
Party strategists say the perception that Trump is not sympathetic to the injustices black Americans face is a vulnerability. Suburban voters care about keeping their communities safe but have sided with Democrats on the issue of racial justice and supported protests as long as they are peaceful.
Trump also runs the danger of being seen as a spark behind the violence, say Republicans, who concede the president is walking a political tightrope in trying to convince voters only he can stop the civil unrest despite that it is happening under his leadership.
“Chaos has always been his enemy and strength his friend,” a Republican operative with experience advising in Wisconsin said. “If Kenosha keeps unraveling, voters may think the chaos is a both-sides problem, and that will not help him.”
