REMOVING THE LAST HURDLE: President Trump’s promise to cut U.S. troop levels in half, from 8,500 to about 4,000, in Afghanistan may rest largely on the outcome of Friday’s tribal council meeting in Kabul, known as a “loya jirga.”
The traditional council is attended by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani; Abdullah Abdullah, chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation; and several thousand others, including government officials, tribal leaders, and warlords — most wearing face masks and social distancing because of estimates that half of the population of the Afghan capital has been exposed to the coronavirus.
The main question to be resolved concerns the release of the final 400 Taliban prisoners, which would pave the way for long-delayed peace talks with the Taliban. Ghani has already freed most of the 5,000 prisoners held by the government, but these last 400 are considered to have committed the most serious crimes.
The session is scheduled to extend into the weekend and wrap up Sunday.
POMPEO SAYS PRISONER RELEASE ‘UNPOPULAR’: Last night, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo released a statement commending the loya jirga for moving toward the “expeditious release” of the remaining Taliban prisoners, which he called “the last obstacle to the start of intra-Afghan negotiations.”
“We acknowledge that the release of these prisoners is unpopular,” Pompeo said. “But this difficult action will lead to an important result long sought by Afghans and Afghanistan’s friends: reduction of violence and direct talks resulting in a peace agreement and an end to the war.”
TALIBAN READY TO TALK: While the Taliban have dismissed the loya jirga as having no legal status, they have also said if the remaining prisoners are released within three days, they will begin negotiations, according to Ghani.
The Taliban have so far kept their pledge not to attack U.S. and NATO troops but have stepped up their offensive against Afghan government forces. In return, the United States began pulling its troops out of the country, from roughly 14,000 when the withdrawal agreement was signed in February to just more than 8,500 today.
“The Taliban have also committed to significantly reduce violence and casualties during the talks where the parties will decide on a political roadmap to end the long and brutal war and agree on a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire,” said Pompeo. “The United States intends to hold the Taliban to these commitments.”
US PROMISES ‘SUBSTANTIAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE’: While the U.S. is planning to withdraw all forces from Afghanistan by next May, it insists it’s not abandoning its Afghan allies. But Pompeo warned that the “size and scope of future U.S. assistance” will depend on the “decisions and conduct of both parties.”
“While the future of Afghanistan is for Afghans to decide, we strongly support the preservation and advancement of the social, economic, and political gains made since 2001,” Pompeo said.
“At the same time, we are committed to reducing the burden on the U.S. taxpayer and the risk to U.S. troops. Terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan should never again pose a threat to the United States and our allies. We are prepared to maintain substantial security assistance to our Afghan security partners to achieve that objective.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Heritage Foundation missile defense and nuclear weapons analyst Patty-Jane Geller is out this morning with a detailed report on the state of the U.S. homeland missile defense program, and she concluded that there are some serious cracks in the nation’s missile shield.
“U.S. homeland missile defense is in a state of uncertainty as program delays, cancellations, misguided policy, and uneven program management stymie advancement,” Geller writes in her conclusion. “To move forward with developing a missile defense system that can respond to the growing missile threat and contribute to U.S. deterrence, the DOD, and the MDA in particular, needs to answer many questions, stabilize programs like the space sensor layer and be held accountable for the weakening GBI fleet. To support the MDA, Congress needs to provide the funding necessary to reflect homeland defense as both the National Defense Strategy’s and MDR’s highest priority.”
Read the full report here.
‘AVOIDING CATASTROPHE’: The Ploughshares Fund is also out with a new report calling for Joe Biden, if he is elected, to stop the U.S. and Russia from competing on a new generation of nuclear weapons. The report, issued on the 75th anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima, is actually addressed to “the next president,” but all the proposals are nonstarters in the Trump administration.
“The world only narrowly survived the last nuclear arms race. The U.S. and Russia are on the brink of a new one,” said report author Akshai Vikram, who proposes three steps he deems “crucial.”
- Extend the New START Treaty, which limits each side to 1,550 deployable weapons.
- Reduce the risk of accidental launch by adopting a “No First Use” policy, ending launch-on-warning for ground-based missiles, and canceling the new ICBM system.
- Work with Russia to roll back weapons that exacerbate the risk of nuclear conflict.
You can read the full report, “The New Nuclear Arms Race: The Outlook For Avoiding Catastrophe,” here.
ARMS CONTROL EFFORTS ‘STAGNATE’: “After some momentum for nuclear disarmament coming from world leaders about 10 years ago, today, on the 75th anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we find ourselves in a world where disarmament efforts continue to stagnate,” says Sayuri Romei, public policy fellow at the Wilson Center.
“Not only that, but past arms control frameworks are now showing their limitations and are collapsing,” he says. “As Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors are well in their 80s and 90s, this week’s anniversary is a fundamental opportunity for current leaders to understand why the decision to drop the bombs was made 75 years ago and the many consequences of that decision that we are still witnessing today in terms of politics, society, and global security.”
US DISPATCHES AID TO LEBANON: The U.S. has sent three C-17 cargo planes, packed with food, water, and medical supplies, to Beirut, where the death toll from Wednesday’s massive explosion now stands at 149, with dozens of people still missing and thousands injured.
U.S. Central Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie informed Lebanon Armed Forces Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun of the humanitarian relief flights on Thursday when the two spoke by phone. “Gen. McKenzie expressed U.S. willingness to continue to work with the Lebanese Armed Forces to help provide aid and assistance to meet the needs of the Lebanese people during this terrible tragedy,” said Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for U.S. Central Command.
COVID-19 DEFENSE FUNDING: Four Republican lawmakers who serve on defense committees are making a plea to include the Pentagon’s funding request in the next COVID-19 response bill:
“As the Pentagon and its private-sector partners have worked together to address the pandemic crisis, the Department of Defense has had to foot the bill for an array of additional costs,” write Sen. Jim Inhofe, Rep. Mac Thornberry, Rep. Kay Granger, and Rep. Ken Calvert.
“Socially distanced production spaces, provision of PPE, self-quarantining, disrupted logistics have generated significant bills. These COVID-related effects made defense programs less efficient and more expensive, and DOD cannot redirect money from other crucial priorities to cover these costs,” they argue. “In particular, critical small businesses representing thousands of employees are at risk of going under in this economic crisis. DOD can support them through Defense Production Act authority, but it requires money to do so — including supporting the production of PPE and vaccines.”
HOOK DEPARTS AFTER ‘HISTORIC RESULTS’: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s top Iran adviser is leaving the administration, writes Joel Gehrke in the Washington Examiner.
“Special Representative Hook has been my point person on Iran for over two years, and he has achieved historic results countering the Iranian regime,” Pompeo said in a laudatory statement. “He has been a trusted advisor to me and a good friend. I thank him for his service.”
Brian Hook will be replaced by special representative Elliot Abrams, the State Department’s leading official for the Venezuela crisis.
“Hook’s departure comes as the U.S. is pushing to extend a soon-to-expire arms embargo on Iran — an initiative that could culminate in the final destruction of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal if the United Nations Security Council can’t come to an agreement by an October deadline,” Gehrke writes.
McCUSKER TO AEI: Former acting Pentagon Comptroller Elaine McCusker, who resigned two months ago because of White House displeasure over emails she sent questioning the legality of holding up weapons funding for Ukraine, has landed at the American Enterprise Institute, where she will be a resident fellow.
“At AEI, McCusker will focus on defense strategy, budget, and innovation; the US military; and national security,” said an AEI press release. “Her background in defense planning and budgeting, military campaign assessments, defense data analytics, and contingency operations will be indispensable in her AEI work.
At the time McCucker’s nomination to be undersecretary of defense was withdrawn in March, Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee called McCusker, “another casualty of the Trump Administration’s efforts to purge public servants who put country before fealty to the president.”
“Ms. McCusker is paying the price for trying to ensure that the Administration followed the law. We know from witness testimony and leaked emails between her and the Office of Management and Budget that Ms. McCusker repeatedly raised concerns about the President’s unexplained hold on Ukraine security assistance and sought to ensure that the Administration was in compliance with the law,” he said.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Eight things that will change at the Pentagon if Biden is elected and three that won’t
Washington Examiner: Army V Corps HQ in Poland to bring large-scale defensive capability
Washington Examiner: Trump signs executive order that bans transactions with Chinese-owned TikTok in 45 days
Washington Examiner: Pompeo calls for ‘Clean Fortress’ to protect US data from China
Washington Examiner: ‘Not unusual’: Pentagon cites Obama in explaining Tata nomination circumventing Senate
Washington Examiner: Iran point man Brian Hook leaving State Department
NPR: Pentagon Chief Esper Talks With Chinese Counterpart As Tensions Soar
Reuters: Taiwan In Talks To Make First Purchase Of Sophisticated U.S. Drones – Sources
Foreign Policy: The U.S. Is Close To Killing Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Pipeline
Defense One: Russian Disinformation Networks Detailed In New State Department Report
New York Times: Former Saudi Official Accuses the Crown Prince of Trying to Kill Him
Air Force Magazine: Brown Takes Over as Air Force Chief of Staff
Reuters: Beirut’s Accidental Cargo: How An Unscheduled Port Visit Led To Disaster
AP: N. Korea’s Escalating Virus Response Raises Fear Of Outbreak
Navy Times: ‘Despair’ Spreading Throughout The Military Sealift Command Fleet Over ‘Draconian’ COVID-19 Restrictions, Unions Warn
USNI News: Virginia-Class Subs Facing Most COVID-19 Delays at Newport News Shipbuilding
Marine Corps Times: A Look At The Lives Of The 8 Marines, Sailor Lost In Sunken Amphibious Assault Vehicle
Wall Street Journal: U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises Stay Digital, As North Korean Threat Grows
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump should recommence South Korea military exercises
Defense News: Germany Floats A New NATO Spending Yardstick: 10 Percent
International Policy Digest: Opinion: Germany: Time to ‘Get Out Now’?
Washington Post: Opinion: Trump’s foreign policy team is hedging against a Biden win
Calendar
MONDAY | AUGUST 10
10 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s Thought Leaders webinar with Chris Brose, author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Register at https://info.ausa.org.
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 12
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace webinar: “How ISIS Really Ends,” with Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander, U.S. Central Command; Amb. Bill Roebuck, deputy special envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; and Nancy Lindborg, president and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/events/how-isis-really-ends
12 p.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. webinar: “Bolton’s Book: Trump Administration’s Foreign Policymaking,” with Trita Parsi, executive vice president, Quincy Institute; Mike Doran, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and Kadir Ustun, executive director, the SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This is a very historic day for our nation, and I do not take this moment lightly. … Today is possible due to the perseverance of those who went before me, serving as an inspiration to me and so many others.”
Gen. Charles “C.Q.” Brown, who made history as the first black person to lead a military service when he took over as Air Force chief of staff on Thursday.
