In a welcome development that should earn appreciation from both President Trump and Joe Biden, Germany has announced that it will deploy a warship on an Indian Ocean patrol alongside the Australian navy.
Provoking alarm in Beijing, German Defense Secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer told the Sydney Morning Herald that China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy had provoked a “rethink across Europe” of how to approach Beijing. The naval deployment evinces that Germany “needs to mark its position in the region.” Kramp-Karrenbauer concluded that “What will be crucial, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, is whether the West can be more unified in its dealings with Beijing.”
This is a significant shift from the appeasement policy that Chancellor Angela Merkel (faux-heroine of the liberal international order) has adopted toward Beijing. But Kramp-Karrenbauer’s words aren’t solitary. They join her new op-ed for Politico, titled “Europe still needs America.” Arguing in favor of continued boosts to defense spending and German support for the U.S. nuclear deterrence umbrella (which Russia is trying to undermine), Kramp-Karrenbauer is clearly working to boost Germany’s defense credibility in Washington.
This is good news. While Kramp-Karrenbauer has regrettably abandoned the leadership race to succeed Merkel, she is an influential voice on the German Right.
Rhetoric aside, the specifics of this Indian Ocean naval deployment are eye-catching. Patrolling alongside the Australian navy, which is at the forefront of challenging China’s global imperialism, the otherwise excellent German navy will get a much needed forward deployment. Flying the flag in the Indian Ocean will serve two further strategic objectives.
First, Beijing will see that the central plank of its European strategy faces a new risk — namely, Germany’s refusal to politically abide China’s mixture of trade investments and divestment threats. This matters because that mix is the foundation upon which China has corralled European Union policy into appeasement. Xi Jinping fears European led efforts by France and Germany to consolidate the American-Australian-Indian defense of the liberal international order in the Indo-Pacific (Britain is already supporting those efforts). Again, Germany knows this deployment will infuriate the Chinese.
The second positive in this decision is its advancement of Germany’s relationship with India. New Delhi is now painfully aware of Beijing’s threat to its interests. But the liberal order will only be strengthened by increasing cooperation between the world’s most populous democracy and Europe’s wealthiest.
Where does this leave us?
Well, crucially, the deployment hasn’t actually happened yet. And it should be noted that this patrol would send a more powerful signal were it to occur in the South China Sea. Still, as Xi faces an increased deterrence posture from the world’s major democracies, regional actors (Rodrigo Duterte’s beach patrol aside) such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore will find greater incentive to defend their interests. This alignment will make China think twice before starting a conflict in the South China Sea.
Kramp-Karrenbauer’s words are thus worthy of American praise, European endorsement, and Chinese Communist fear.
