NATSEC RACES TO WATCH: As voters across the nation go to the polls on this Election Day 2018, some of the tightest races are among incumbents facing reelection who serve on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Of the committee’s 27 members, 12 are up for reelection: Democrats:
Republicans:
Independents:
While some senators, such as Kaine in Virginia and King in Maine, have comfortable double-digits leads, many of the races are very close. In Texas, Cruz appears to have pulled ahead against Democrat Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and in Florida Nelson is now favored by a narrow margin to hold on to his seat against Republican Gov. Rick Scott. The two closest contests of the night are expected to be the toss-up races in Missouri and Nevada, according to the data-crunching website FiveThirtyEight. In Missouri, Democrat McCaskill is said to be clinging to a slight edge over Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley. And in Nevada, Republican Dean Heller is rated by FiveThirtyEight “the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in 2018.” Democrat Rep. Jacky Rosen has a 56 percent chance of defeating Heller, which would be a Democratic pickup, according to the site. In Arizona, there’s an open-seat race to replace retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Rep. Martha McSally, a combat veteran and aviation pioneer is on the House Armed Services Committee, and would no doubt like to serve on the Senate, but first she has to get by Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who according to FiveThirtyEight holds a 61 percent advantage. Whoever wins, the victor will be the first female senator from Arizona. As for the House Armed Services Committee, all of the members are up for reelection as is the case every two years. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’S OVERALL PREDICTION: “Republicans will likely hold on to the Senate in part because Democrats have so many tough seats to defend. The likeliest outcomes range from a GOP gain of four seats to a Democratic gain of two, but only the latter could take away the GOP’s majority. Democrats would need a near-perfect night to win the Senate.” Just a reminder, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump only a 28.6 percent chance of winning, and rated the chances of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College at only 10 percent. NO INDICATION OF COMPROMISE: Last night the top federal agencies in charge of overseeing protection of the country’s election infrastructure issued a joint statement reassuring voters their ballots are secure. “At this time we have no indication of compromise of our nation’s election infrastructure that would prevent voting, change vote counts, or disrupt the ability to tally votes,” Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and FBI Director Christopher Wray said in their statement. They this caveat: “But Americans should be aware that foreign actors—and Russia in particular—continue to try to influence public sentiment and voter perceptions through actions intended to sow discord. They can do this by spreading false information about political processes and candidates, lying about their own interference activities, disseminating propaganda on social media, and through other tactics. The American public can mitigate these efforts by remaining informed, reporting suspicious activity, and being vigilant consumers of information.” Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
BORDER BUILDUP CONTINUES: The Pentagon says more than 5,000 active-duty military troops are on or near the southwest border under orders from Trump on the way to an eventual total of roughly 7,000. But at a briefing yesterday, spokesman Col. Rob Manning again underscored the troops are all performing support activities that will keep them far away from any migrants and any law enforcement functions. “There is no plan for them to come in direct contact with migrants or protesters,” Manning said, noting that most of the troops won’t be armed. “The only soldiers that are going to be armed during this mission are the soldiers that are providing force protection.” The armed troops are all highly trained military police who normally carry sidearms as part of their regular duties, and Manning said their sole mission will be to provide security for the unarmed troops as deemed necessary. So what are the troops doing? Two things primarily: Building barriers and stringing fence to harden the border; and flying surveillance missions along the border to give Customs and Border Protection personnel a better picture of what’s going on. At last check, the migrant caravan, which has been slowly losing members, was about 500 miles away near Mexico City and is not expected to arrive at the border until next month. MATTIS BORDER WALL HITS DELAYS: Three months after Trump indicated he would have the Pentagon build part of his Mexico border wall to fast-track construction, that military project is facing years of potential delays. The Navy says it has started work on a federally mandated environmental impact statement for the $450 million project to construct a 32-mile-long border barrier along the Barry Goldwater bombing range in Arizona. “The EIS process can and typically runs in a matter of years,” said Jim McElfish, a senior attorney with the Environmental Law Institute. “This administration has put a pretty high priority on and put out executive orders and tracking approaches to try to get those done in two years.” That means the NEPA review could stretch into a new administration, unless Nielsen can tap wide authorities to waive the environmental regulations. Naval Facilities Engineering Command said it hired a contractor for the EIS work in September. “The Navy’s goal is to complete the EIS in the most efficient manner possible, while ensuring that all potential environmental impacts are taken into consideration,” the command said in a statement. WILL SHE, OR WON’T SHE: The Pentagon is looking into how the Goldwater project will be funded. If it is handled and paid for solely by the military, it remains unclear whether Nielsen can or will use a DHS waiver to clear away NEPA and all other environmental regulations, a power granted to the department’s secretaries by Congress in 2005 to speed up construction of border barrier projects. “The secretary is committed to building Trump’s border wall and is engaged in ongoing conversations with the Department of Defense,” DHS spokeswoman Katie Waldman wrote in an email. Nielsen’s predecessor in the Bush administration, Michael Chertoff, used the powers to waive NEPA and the Endangered Species Act along with six other federal regulatory laws to fast-track a DHS project erecting $122 million in border barriers along the Goldwater range in 2007. ‘UNSAFE’: A Russian Su-27 fighter jet conducted an “unsafe” and “irresponsible” pass in front of a U.S. Navy EP-3E Aries surveillance plane over the Black Sea on Monday, “putting at risk the pilots and crew,” a Navy statement said. “The intercepting Su-27 made an additional pass, closing with the EP-3 and applying its afterburner while conducting a banking turn away,” the statement said. “The crew of the EP-3 reported turbulence following the first interaction, and vibrations from the second. The duration of the intercept was approximately 25 minutes.” You can see video of the encounter here. POMPEO’S WARNING, DEFIANCE WILL BRING PAIN: In formally announcing the new U.S. sanctions prohibiting countries from buy Iranian oil, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had a warning for members of the European Union and any other countries who might want to try to get around the embargo. “I promise you that doing business with Iran in defiance of our sanctions will ultimately be a much more painful business decision than pulling out of Iran,” Pompeo said yesterday, promising that in response to any company that secretly continues sanctionable commerce with Iran, the U.S. will levy severe, swift penalties. PRAISE FROM LIEBERMAN: Former Sen. Joseph Lieberman now heads a group called “United Against Nuclear Iran.” Along with the group’s CEO Mark Wallace, he released a statement lauding the tough new sanctions. “UANI applauds the Trump Administration for re-imposing sanctions against Iran, which includes more than 700 entities, banks and individuals,” said a statement issued yesterday. NUKE WAIVERS: Trump will let countries helping to overhaul three Iranian nuclear facilities escape sanctions that have been reimposed as part of the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, the State Department confirmed Monday. “We are not issuing waivers for any new civil nuclear projects,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert’s office said in a Monday bulletin. “We are only permitting the continuation for a temporary period of certain ongoing projects that impede Iran’s ability to reconstitute its weapons program and that lock in the nuclear status quo until we can secure a stronger deal that fully and firmly addresses all of our concerns.” NO POLITICS: The Pentagon confirmed yesterday a story first reported here last week that Marine Maj. Gen. Burke Whitman has been tapped to take over as a primary on-camera briefer, and will transition from his role as commander of Marine Forces Reserve and Marine Forces North this month. Whitman, who is in the Marine Corps Reserve, will be serving in an active-duty status, and will brief in uniform, contrary to the previous policy instituted by former Defense Secretary Ash Carter that the Pentagon briefer should be a civilian political appointee who is free defend the partisan policies of the administration. At yesterday’s off-camera briefing, spokesman Manning said Whitman should have no problem defending Trump administration policy while steering clear of politics. After all, Manning said, he does it all the time. “I talk about transgender policy, I talk about South Asia policy, and he’ll do the same,” Manning said. “I think you should draw the distinction between policy and politics. And so absolutely, I mean he is, he’s apolitical, but he will brief on department policy.” A POIGNANT REMEMBRANCE OF A FALLEN SOLDIER: An Afghan National Army pilot praised Maj. Brent Taylor, 39, a member of the Utah Army National Guard who was killed over the weekend in Afghanistan, in a letter he wrote to Taylor’s wife Jennie. Abdul Rahman Rahmani, who is stationed in Kabul as a major and pilot with the Special Mission Wing and served alongside Taylor, said the father of seven “taught me to love my wife Hamida as an equal and to treat my children as treasured gifts, to be a better father, to be a better [husband], and to be a better man. “I gained a great deal of knowledge from him and I am a better person for having met him,” Rahmani wrote in the letter, which he also shared on Twitter. THE RUNDOWN Defense News: Midterms could crash Trump’s Space Force on the launch pad Military Times: What’s at stake for the military on election night Reuters: Pentagon balked at U.S. border troops building detention facilities – officials Foreign Policy: Watchdog Warns of Islamic State Resurgence AP: Seoul: Iranian waiver shows strength of alliance with US USNI News: Navy Admiral Assigned to Oversee Green Beret Homicide Case as NCIS Investigation Nears Conclusion Reuters: Pentagon balked at U.S. border troops building detention facilities – officials New York Times: Iran Sanctions and Oil Prices: Who’ll Feel the Pain? USA Today: Read transcript of USA TODAY interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif Defense One: In the Gulf, Repression and Discontent Are Rising as US Influence Wanes Military Times: Why were active-duty forces picked over Guard to defend the border? Capabilities, Pentagon says Business Insider: Check out these spooky photos of shot down US aircraft on display at Vietnam’s military museum in Hanoi Task and Purpose: Former Pentagon Spokesman: This Is Not An ‘Invasion’ — And The Military Doesn’t Need To Go To The Border |
CalendarTUESDAY | NOV. 6 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast with Lt. Gen. Aundre Piggee, Army Deputy Chief of Staff. ausa.org 9 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Elections Under Threat? A Global Comparative Analysis of Cybersecurity of Elections. press.org 10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Iran: Renewed Sanctions and U.S. Policy. heritage.org 10 a.m. 901 N Fairfax St. ISR and C2 Battle Management Conference. Isrusa.iqpc.com 10:20 a.m. 901 N. Fairfax St., Alexandria. Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Fogarty, commander, U.S. Army Cyber Command, provides the opening keynote address at the ISR & C2 Battle Management USA conference, at the Crowne Plaza Old Town Alexandria. 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Stronger Together – Building the Transatlantic Partnership of the Future. heritage.org 5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Hosts Douglas Mastriano, Author of Thunder in the Argonne. ausa.org WEDNESDAY | NOV. 7 6:45 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special Topic Breakfast with Lt. Gen. Brian Beaudreault, Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Plans, Policies and Operations. navyleague.org 8:45 a.m. 901 N Fairfax St. ISR and C2 Battle Management Conference. isrusa.iqpc.com 10:30 a.m. 2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy. National Submarine League Annual Symposium and Industry Update. navalsubleague.org Noon. 1030 15th St. NW. How Iran Will Cope with U.S. Sanctions. atlanticcouncil.org Noon. Howard University. Army Senior Leader Development Conference with Rep. Anthony Brown, Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, Chief of Army Reserve, and others. 12:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Impact of War and Sanctions on the Russian Economy. sais-jhu.edu THURSDAY | NOV. 8 7 a.m. 2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy. National Submarine League Annual Symposium and Industry Update. navalsubleague.org 9 a.m. 901 N Fairfax St. ISR and C2 Battle Management Conference. isrusa.iqpc.com 9:15 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Back to the (Army’s) future: A conversation with Army Secretary Mark Esper. aei.org 4:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Was the United States Ever Good at National Security Policy? with Kori Schake. sais-jhu.edu FRIDAY | NOV. 9 9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan’s Conventional Deterrence Posture. stimson.org 11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Economic Security as National Security: A Discussion with Peter Navarro, Director of the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. csis.org Noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of Navy Expeditionary Warfare with Maj. Gen. David Coffman, Director of Expeditionary Warfare for the U.S. Navy. hudson.org Noon. House Visitor Center 201. Capitol Hill Forum on the Future of Federal Information Technology. lexingtoninstitute.org 6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. NPC Headliners Book Event: Bill Lord Looks Back “50 Years After Vietnam.” press.org TUESDAY | NOV. 13 7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. How Washington Works – Navigating the DoD. ndia.org 9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Reenergizing the Missile Defense Enterprise with Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. csis.org 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. World order without America? Reflections on the U.S. global role on the centenary of Armistice Day. brookings.edu 10 a.m. 923 16th St. NW. The Battlefield of Today and Tomorrow: Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare with B. Edwin Wilson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy, and others. fdd.org Noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Defending Sovereignty and Information Space. atlanticcouncil.org |
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