Though polls show Joe Biden leading President Trump ahead of the November election, it’s not all bad news for the commander in chief. Trump consistently leads Biden on issues related to the economy and confronting China.
But his controversial remarks, often expressed on Twitter, and his inability to unite the country are undercutting those advantages.
In the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, with double-digit unemployment and a contracting gross domestic product, voters still trust Trump over his challenger to handle fixing the economy. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week had Trump leading by 13 percentage points on who would do better on getting people back to work and 11 points on the economy generally. That same poll, however, found Biden leading by 7 points in whom voters are supporting in November, with Trump earning 42%.
A CNN poll taken around the same time had similar findings. Although Biden led by 14 points among registered voters, 55% to 41%, the president was more trusted on the economy by 5 points. Voters also said Trump was best prepared to tackle the threat of China, which a vast majority of people in the United States blame for the coronavirus pandemic.
That disjointedness, between Trump earning trust from voters on directing the economy out of a crisis and facing his lowest numbers against Biden in a general election, has many Republican strategists nervous.
But not without hope.
“It’s harder now than it was two weeks ago, four weeks ago. One of his best arguments has been the economy and all the things he accomplished there, and that’s taken away,” said Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser.
“The thing I’ve been thinking about the most is just ‘survive this moment,’ get through the summer, COVID-19 dies off a bit, the economy recovers. Just get through this tough position. I think what I would try to do is let’s really hit mid-September and October hard. Let’s try and reshift a little bit.”
Republicans point to some of the president’s more offensive tweets, not necessarily as a reason why the president is losing by such a large margin to Biden but because it’s indicative of a lack of focus or message discipline.
“Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur. 75 year old Martin Gugino was pushed away after appearing to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment,” Trump tweeted on Monday. “I watched, he fell harder than was pushed. Was aiming scanner. Could be a set up?”
Trump appeared to be referencing a news report from One America News, a right-wing cable channel that often airs baseless conspiracy theories. There remains no evidence that Gugino, who remains hospitalized with a serious head injury after a police officer in Buffalo, New York, pushed him onto the concrete, had staged his fall. Democrats and some Republicans criticized Trump’s remarks, calling them unnecessarily cruel and unbecoming of a commander in chief.
The tweets about Gugino were just the latest in a serious of particularly controversial missives in the last few weeks, even for Trump, who regularly turns to the site to air his various grievances. In May, Trump repeatedly implied on Twitter that MSNBC host Joe Scarborough was responsible for the death of a 28-year-old staffer when he was a Florida congressman in 2001. Those comments were condemned across the political spectrum, and the family of the woman who died pleaded for the president to stop. Police say the woman died after an accident and that there remains no evidence of any foul play.
Polling shows that Biden holds massive leads over Trump on notions such as “bringing people together.” According to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters by a 25-point margin say Biden can unite the country over Trump. The CNN poll found voters trusted the former vice president and 36-year Delaware senator on race relations over Trump by 32 points.
Some Republicans, however disgusted they are with the president’s conduct online, say polling is nearly meaningless at this point.
“I think another thing people aren’t appreciating is how radical to the left the Democrats have gone to the Left in just the last few weeks. That’s not going play in Michigan, that’s not going play in Pennsylvania, even Minnesota,” said John Feehery, a longtime senior House Republican leadership aide.
“We also know that folks who are most energized to vote are Trump voters, not Biden voters. This is a very non-traditional election because we’ve seen firsthand what happens when government is run amok. The people who find his tweets offensive are gonna vote against him anyway. This guy is an open book.”
