Decades of illegal and legal immigration have exploded the populations of mostly Democratic states enough that by the 2020 census, 24 House seats in states President Trump won will have been redistributed, according to a new population analysis released Thursday morning.
The prediction from the Center for Immigration Studies said that 26 seats overall will have shifted due to longstanding trends in immigration by the next census. And it said that a minimum of 19 of those 26 seats will have been added to Democratic states.
“Immigration profoundly redistributes political power at the federal level by changing the apportionment of House seats and votes in the Electoral College,” said the report compiled by Steven Camarota, the center’s director of research, and demographer Karen Zeigler.
CIS expects Ohio to be the biggest loser of House seats and California the biggest winner because many illegal and legal immigrants reside in California, and the distribution of 435 House seats is based on the national population count.
It is one of the first reports to confirm concerns that unchecked immigration, cheered by liberals, dramatically helps the Democratic Party.
The report found that the booming population of noncitizens alone will have shifted 10 seats. And when focused only on illegal immigration, five seats will have been lost from mostly Trump states.
There are Republican states that will have gained, namely Texas and Florida, the analysis found.
Key predictions taken from the new report:
- The presence of all immigrants (naturalized citizens, legal residents, and illegal immigrants) and their U.S.-born minor children will have redistributed 26 seats in the House by 2020.
- Ohio will have three fewer seats by 2020, Michigan and Pennsylvania will have two fewer, and Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wisconsin will each have one fewer seat.
- California will have gained 11, New York and Texas four, Florida three more seats, New Jersey two, and Illinois and Massachusetts will each have one additional seat.
- Of the 26 seats that will be lost by 2020, 24 are from states that voted for Trump in 2016. Nineteen seats will have gone to the solidly Democratic states of California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois.
- Looking at noncitizens and their U.S.-born minor children redistributes 10 seats.
- Looking at only noncitizens (legal residents and illegal immigrants) redistributes eight seats, with Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Alabama, Idaho, West Virginia, and Rhode Island each having one fewer seat by 2020 due to the presence of noncitizens in other states.
- Illegal immigrants and their U.S.-born minor children will have redistributed five seats by 2020, with Ohio, Michigan, Alabama, Minnesota, and West Virginia each losing one seat by 2020 that they otherwise would have had. California and Texas will each have two additional seats, and New York will have one additional seat.
- Illegal immigrants alone will have redistributed three seats by 2020, with Ohio, Alabama, and Minnesota each having one fewer seat than they otherwise would have had, while California, New York, and Texas will have one additional seat.
CORRECTION: In a previous version of this story, the Washington Examiner reported that a 10-year surge of immigrants is expected to result in the redistribution of 26 House seats in the upcoming census. The influx is cumulative, with the redistribution occurring over several decades, not the last 10 years. The Washington Examiner regrets the error.
