For now, talk of war with Iran is just talk

In an interview before he left for Europe, Pompeo said the increased threats from Iran are real. “It appears to be something that is current; that is, things we’re worried about today,” he told CNBC. But he insisted the United States won’t stumble into war with Iran.

“We’re not going to miscalculate. Our aim is not war. Our aim is a change in the behavior of the Iranian leadership. We hope the Iranian people will get what they finally want and what they so richly deserve,” Pompeo said, referring to his oft-repeated 12 demands that Iran begin acting like a “normal” country.

PLAN FOR THE WORST: Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that last week acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan presented a plan that would send up to 120,000 U.S. troops to the region if Iran carries out any attacks on U.S. forces.

The updated military plan was reportedly presented at a meeting of Trump’s top national security aides last Thursday, but it is unclear whether the president himself has seen it.

“The revisions were ordered by hard-liners led by John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser,” the Times reported, citing what it said were more than a half-dozen national security officials who were said to have been briefed on the updated plans. “They do not call for a land invasion of Iran, which would require vastly more troops,” according to the report.

TRUMP: ‘THEY WILL SUFFER GREATLY’: As the United States continues to assess whether Iran is responsible for damage to four oil tankers near the Persian Gulf, President Trump issued a vague warning during an exchange with reporters at the White House.

“We’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything, it would be a very bad mistake, if they do anything,” Trump said. “I’m hearing little stories about Iran. If they do anything, they will suffer greatly. We’ll see what happens with Iran.”

While the United States has not publicly blamed Iran for the damage to ships, which Saudi Arabia called “an act of sabotage,” the Wall Street Journal reports that early findings in the ongoing analysis show Iran was likely behind the incident. Two of the ships were Saudi.

Owners of one of the ships, a Norwegian-flagged tanker, said an unknown object caused a small hole in the ship’s hull, while AP said a review of commercial satellite imagery showed a boom around the Emirati oil tanker, indicating the possibility of an oil leak, while the other three showed no major damage visible from above.

IRAN: CARRIER TARGET NOT THREAT: Iran is keeping up the bellicose rhetoric as tensions rise between Washington and Tehran. A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander is the latest Iranian official to talk about attacking U.S. ships in the Gulf.

“An aircraft carrier that has at least 40 to 50 planes on it and 6,000 forces gathered within it was a serious threat for us in the past but now it is a target and the threats have switched to opportunities,” said Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Guards’ aerospace division, Reuters reports.

REMEMBER THE TONKIN GULF: Members of Congress complained that while Pompeo was in Brussels briefing skeptical allies on the intelligence behind the undisclosed “credible threats” from Iran, they were once again out of the loop.

“We have not been briefed. To my knowledge, there’s not been a significant or serious briefing by the Pentagon or by the intelligence agencies,” Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., said on CNN yesterday, adding, “I really do not see military action against, directly against Iran. That would be an extraordinary and a very, very bad situation.”

Garamendi cautioned against the kind of overreaction that drew the United States into the Vietnam War in 1964. “I do not want to have a Tonkin Gulf situation here that could set off a conflict, so let’s be very sure that we understand all of the elements, take our time, get the intelligence, and then make a rational, careful decision,” he said. “And you better involve Congress in that decision.”

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: After a months-long drought, the Pentagon will offer a briefing from a senior spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition that is still fighting ISIS even as the group no longer holds territory.

British Maj. Gen. Christopher Ghika, deputy commander, Strategy and Information, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, briefs the press live from Baghdad at 11 a.m. He’s likely to discuss ISIS’ efforts to reestablish itself in the area around Kirkuk in Iraq and the recent air strikes targeting them in the mountains. The briefing will be streamed live at www.defense.gov.

SHANAHAN HAPPY TO BE ON THE TEAM: In an interview that aired yesterday on President Trump’s favorite morning news program, Patrick Shanahan was asked what he would do if, like his predecessor, he found himself in a major conflict with his boss. Disagreement over Syria policy prompted Jim Mattis to resign. Brian Kilmeade of “Fox and Friends” asked: What would Shanahan do?

“I’ve talked with the president about that. What I like about working with the president is he’s a CEO. I’ve worked for CEOs. He’s focused on outcomes and results,” Shanahan replied. “Will we always agree on everything? No. Are we focused? Do we have the same interests and the same focus? Yes. My job is to get the results we need to make this country successful, to defend this country.”

Shanahan, who Trump has said he’ll nominate to serve as his second defense secretary, has seemed to have a minor role in shaping policy, compared with Pompeo and Bolton, but he told Kilmeade he’s happy to be a team player.

“Let me say, this is, I think, what differentiates people that come from a corporate environment: It is mandatory that people work together,” he said, “So you can have a difference of opinion. I have disagreements with people. I mean, that’s normal. And I bring those opinions to our discussions. At the end of the day, we have to have cohesion. We have to work as a team.”

N. KOREA WANTS ITS SHIP BACK: North Korea calls the U.S. seizure of one of its cargo ships “an unlawful and outrageous act” and demands its immediate return.

“The latest U.S. act constitutes an extension of the American method of calculation for bringing the DPRK to its knees by means of “maximum pressure” and an outright denial of the underlying spirit of the June 12 DPRK-U.S. Joint Statement that has committed to establish new bilateral relations,” said an unnamed foreign ministry spokesman.

“The U.S. should ponder over the consequences its heinous act might have on the future developments and immediately return our ship,” the spokesman said.

MARINES NEED A FEW GOOD NERDS: The Marine Corps has announced the creation of what it calls “Cyber Aux,” short for Marine Corps Cyber Auxiliary, described as a volunteer organization aimed at increasing Marine Corps cyberspace readiness.

“The Cyber Aux is comprised of a small cadre of highly-talented cyber experts who train, educate, advise, and mentor Marines to keep pace with constantly-evolving cyber challenges,” said a release from the Marine Corps yesterday. “Qualified volunteers must be US citizens with advanced cyber experience and will be screened and assessed before assignment to a specified unit or project.”

And in recognition that “computer nerds” may not look the part of a Marine, the corps says the citizen volunteers will not wear a uniform or need to meet the Marine Corps physical fitness and grooming standards.

RUBIO RENEWS REQUEST FOR KERRY PROBE: Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., wrote to Attorney General William Barr Monday requesting an investigation be opened into the actions of former secretary of state John Kerry for potential violations of the Logan Act or the Foreign Agents Registration Act.

President Trump had complained that Kerry’s talks with the Iranian government violated the 1799 law that bars private citizens from engaging in unauthorized correspondence with foreign governments.

“As you know, former Secretary Kerry’s actions since leaving office have come under scrutiny as they related to the Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” Rubio said in the letter to Barr. “The American people deserve to know that U.S. laws are enforced regardless of any individual’s past position.”

The Logan Act has never been enforced, and as former defense secretary Robert Gates observed on CBS Sunday, “American politicians and former leaders talk to other leaders all the time.”

SEAL FOLLOW UP: Remember the story of the Navy SEAL denied a position with the New York City Fire Department because he was too old at 37? My colleague Diana Stancy Correll reports that Shaun Donovan has gotten job offers from more than a dozen fire departments from across the country.

Donovan served four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and is leaving the military in 2020. He applied to be a firefighter in New York City, scored in the top 1% on his entry exam, and passed a physical exam. But a background investigator told him he wasn’t eligible for the position because he was 6 months and 25 days too old to qualify.

Donovan is still fighting that decision, but if his appeal fails, he now has more than a few other options.

The Rundown

Air Force Magazine: USAF Takes Big Hit as DOD Reprograms Funds to Pay for Border Wall

AP: Why Send A U.S. Aircraft Carrier To The Gulf?

Reuters: Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil artery

Washington Post: Pentagon Weighs Call For More Border Assistance

Bloomberg: Inside The Close Naval Encounters In The South China Sea

The Diplomat: China Launches 19th and 20th Type 052D Guided Missile Destroyer

AP: Defense attorneys in Navy SEAL war crimes case say prosecutors spied on them

Task and Purpose: MRE Wants Answers About Alleged Email Hack of Reporter

CNN: Venezuelan Opposition Leader Juan Guaido Calls For U.S. Help In Letter

Reuters: U.S. Asks Turkey Delay Taking Delivery Of Russian Missile; Ankara Unlikely To Back Down

Washington Post: Coast Guard officer accused of plotting terror attack to remain jailed, judge says

Air Force Magazine: USAF to Award Light Attack Contract This Fall

USNI News: Virginia Block VI Subs Will Focus on Special Operations, Unmanned

Seapower Magazine: Navy’s Next Tomahawk Missile: Block 5

Army Times: Vice President Pence to speak at West Point’s graduation

Washington Examiner: Guarding the noblest acre in America

Calendar

TUESDAY | MAY 14

10 a.m. 226 Dirksen. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing: “5G: National Security Concerns, Intellectual Property Issues, and the Impact on Competition and Innovation.” judiciary.senate.gov

11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. British Maj. Gen. Christopher Ghika, deputy commander of Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, briefs Pentagon reporters from Baghdad on continuing efforts to defeat ISIS. Livestreamed at www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events.

12 p.m. 529 14th Street N.W. Texas A&M University and the George H.W. Bush School of Government & Public Service’s Scowcroft Institute hold the 3rd annual Pandemic & Biosecurity Forum. Speakers include Sen. Richard Burr and Brett Giroir, assistant secretary of Health and Human Services, and the forum features the release of a Scowcroft Institute white paper with policy recommendations for addressing the next pandemic. Register at tamu.qualtrics.com.

2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave N.W. Hudson Institute event: “The Rise of China’s Navy.” Speakers: Retired Capt. James Fanell, former director of intelligence and information operations, U.S. Pacific Fleet, and Seth Cropsey, senior fellow and director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events

WEDNESDAY | MAY 15

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington. Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion on: “Global Integration and 21st Century Conflict: From Strategy to Action,” featuring Lt. Gen. David Allvin, director of strategy, plans, and policy, Joint Staff. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/mitchell-hour

10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn. House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing: “DOD Inspector General Report on Excess Profits by TransDigm Group, Inc.” oversight.house.gov

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies “Maritime Security Dialogue,” with Vice Adm. William Merz, deputy chief of naval operations for warfare systems, and moderated by Mark Cancian, CSIS. Livestreamed at www.csis.org/events.

10:15 a.m. 419 Dirksen. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “The Future of Arms Control Post-Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.” Witnesses: Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson and David Trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. foreign.senate.gov

11:15 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments releases two “Net Assessment” reports on the “Changing Nuclear Balance.” Speakers include authors Thomas Mahnken and Evan Braden Montgomery, along with Amb. Eric Edelman, former undersecretary of defense for policy, and Frank Rose of the Brookings Institution. csbaonline.org/about/events

2 p.m. 2172 Rayburn. House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism Subcommittee hearing: “The Conflict in Libya.” Witnesses: Benjamin Fishman, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and adjunct international security and defense policy analyst for the RAND Corporation; Megan Doherty, senior director for policy and advocacy at Mercy Corps; Frederic Wehrey, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program; and Thomas Hill, senior program officer for North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2 p.m. 620 T St. N.W. Government Matters hosts a screening of the documentary “The Dawn of Generation AI.” Speakers include: Brian Gattoni, chief technology officer, Office of Cybersecurity and Communications, Department of Homeland Security; Cory Milam, director, Office of Innovation, Food and Drug Administration; Lee Becker, chief of staff, Veterans Experience Office, Veterans Affairs; and Capt. Patrick Schreiber, U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence Coordination Center. govmattersai.com

2:30 p.m. 418 Russell. Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of James Byrne to be deputy veterans affairs secretary. veterans.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 16

8 a.m. 2401 M St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ourevents

8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence Series discussion with John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Department of Defense’s Financial Improvement and Audit Remediation Plan: The Path Forward.” Witnesses: Defense Undersecretary/Comptroller David Norquist; Thomas Harker, assistant secretary of the Navy for financial management and comptroller; John Roth, assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management and comptroller; and John Whitley, assistant secretary of the Army for financial management and comptroller. armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. National Press Club, 529 14th St. N.W. Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences Chair of Tropical Medicine Dr. David Brett-Major moderates a panel and speaks at the Texas A&M University and the George H.W. Bush School of Government & Public Service’s Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs’ 3rd annual Pandemic and Biosecurity Forum.

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW. Hudson Institute event: “Benefits and Ramifications of America’s Proxy Wars.” Speakers: Candace Rondeaux, Center on the Future of War; Abbas Kadhim, Atlantic Council; C. Anthony Pfaff, U.S. Army War College; and Michael Pregent, senior fellow, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events

11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ new report “Sustaining the Fight: Resilient Maritime Logistics for a New Era” is discussed with Navy Secretary Richard V. Spencer. csbaonline.org/about/events

1 p.m. 1100 New York Ave. N.W. National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service holds a hearing on “Increasing Awareness Among Young Americans and Lessening the Civil-Military Divide.” inspire2serve.gov

2:30 p.m. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Military Personnel Management – How Are the Military Services Adapting to Recruit, Retain, and Manage High Quality Talent to Meet the Needs of a Modern Military?” Witnesses: James Stewart, performing the duties of the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands, Army deputy chief of staff; Vice Adm. Robert Burke, chief of naval personnel; Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, Air Force deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services, United States Air Force; and Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, deputy Marine Corps commandant for manpower and reserve affairs. armedservices.house.gov

FRIDAY | MAY 17

11 a.m. 1030 15th St N.W. Atlantic Council “Commanders Series” conversation on “The Future of the Army in Great-Power Competition” with Army Secretary Mark Esper, moderated by Vago Muradian, Defense & Aerospace Report. www.atlanticcouncil.org/events

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Heritage Foundation “fireside chat” with Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on “Strengthening U.S. Leadership in an Era of Global Competition.” Hosted by the Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano. Livestreamed at heritage.org./defense/event.

WEDNESDAY | MAY 23

3 p.m. 51 Louisiana Ave N.W. The National Security Institute and the Federalist Society co-host a symposium examining two questions regarding Syria policy: “Does Congress Need to Weigh In?” and “Stay In, Get Out, or Triple Down?” Speakers include: Jennifer Daskal, associate professor of law at American University; retired Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap, executive director, Center on Law, Ethics and National Security; Jeremy Rabkin, professor of law, George Mason University; Norm Roule, former national intelligence manager for Iran office of the DNI; and Dana Stroul, the Washington Institute. nationalsecurity.gmu.edu

THURSDAY | MAY 30

1:30 p.m. 1152 15th Street N.W. Center for a New American Security “Fireside Chat” on the FY 2020 defense budget with David Norquist, performing the duties of the deputy secretary of defense. Moderated by Susanna Blume, senior fellow and deputy director, CNAS’s Defense Program. www.cnas.org/events