Pennsylvania got its nickname as the keystone state because, geographically, it’s in the middle of the thirteen original colonies. Though it’s still not in the middle of the country geographically this November, it may be in the middle politically.
In 2016, some pundits predicted that Pennsylvania would almost definitely vote for Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and a healthy percentage voters in the state did. Most of those votes came from the cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Scranton. But, it wasn’t quite enough to bring her victory in the state. Though she did well, Clinton fell just 44,000 votes shy of securing the state, giving Donald Trump the win.
From looking at the map, it’s obvious that though Trump was unable to win over major cities, he was able to run the table and notch a key win. So, the question is will Trump be able to win over those same voters again or will former Vice President Joe Biden be able to swoop in and restore the state he and Barack Obama carried twice?
In 2016, Donald Trump and Mike Pence visited Pennsylvania, in total, 30 times for campaign events. Since assuming office, Trump, himself, has visited the state an additional 20 times, including four stops in 2020. But maybe campaigning in the state isn’t the whole story as Hillary Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine visited the state 29 times and the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket has already made several visits including a surprise appearance in the state capitol of Harrisburg on Labor Day.
A closer look at a comparison between 2008, 2012, and 2016 shows that a key district flipped from blue to red: Luzerne County, specifically its biggest city, Wilkes-Barre, which has a population of roughly 40,000 and is located southwest of Scranton.
A true bellwether county, Luzerne has remarkably decided the winner of Pennsylvania in each presidential election since 1936. Even with the regular blue trend in years past, the county has shown signs of becoming more interested in the Republican party. As of November 2019, the county council ushered in their first ever Republican-controlled government.
But it can’t all be sunshine and roses for President Trump, can it? Well, if you were thinking that the Dems have an ace in the hole, you’d be right.
Not only is Pennsylvania one of just 10 states to have a split on the Senators (one Republican and one Democrat), they also re-elected Governor Tom Wolf to a second term with him winning by a 17% margin. On top of all that, guess who was born just miles away from Wilkes-Barre in Scranton? That’s right, Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Finally, with the coronavirus pandemic still lingering around, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Democrats’ effort to extend accommodations for mail-in voting.
In addition to allowing voters to submit ballots via dropbox and the U.S. Postal Service, the court is allowing ballots to be returned up to three days after Election Day and blocked Republicans from stationing partisan poll watchers in counties where they do not live.
Whether this actually holds up by Election Day remains to be seen, but it’s a reminder that with all the things we’ve seen in 2020, it’s possible that the results of the election will be delayed.
Closing
