Republicans hope a report expected to show stellar economic growth in the third quarter will push President Trump past Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden — if the incumbent can muster more message discipline heading into Election Day.
The Commerce Department’s report on the GDP in July, August, and September, which will likely be released Thursday, just five days before Election Day, is expected to show skyrocketing growth of 30% or more. That’s a big rebound from the second quarter, when economic output shrank 31.4% amid downward pressure from the coronavirus pandemic. Republicans say the new GDP numbers could not be better timed for Trump.
The president trails Biden nationally and in several key battleground states. News suggesting the economy is in the midst of a comeback offers Trump an opportunity to frame the final five days of the campaign on more favorable terms. Whether Trump takes advantage of his good fortune is another matter, according to some GOP strategists.
“The president should make the most of the news of a strong third-quarter report,” Republican consultant Brad Todd said. “The key will be for him to not try too hard to get rewarded for the third quarter but to use it to remind remaining undecided voters that Biden’s election could hurt the economy.”
The political environment is challenging for Trump.
Coronavirus infections in the United States are on the rise, and the death toll from the coronavirus continues to grow. The economic recovery, meanwhile, is uneven. On Monday, the stock market dropped more than 2%, a reaction to the pandemic and fading prospects for a coronavirus relief package before Election Day, after it had been rising for weeks. Additionally, a survey of economists conducted for the National Association for Business Economics, a professional association for business economists, suggested hiring could slow in the fourth quarter.
But the economy is Trump’s best issue. Voters are dissatisfied with Trump over his handling of the pandemic, a sentiment that has contributed significantly to Biden’s lead in the polls. In those same polls, however, voters give the president positive marks for his management of the economy and rate him higher on the issue than they do the former vice president. A fresh national poll conducted for Reuters by Ipsos tells the tale.
Biden led Trump in the horse race, 51% to 43%. He topped the president on leading a “national recovery from the coronavirus,” 44% to 35%. But Trump outpaced Biden, 45% to 39%, on “job creation and the economy.” Republicans are excited about the new GDP report because it gives Trump a chance to contrast his record with Biden’s on an issue that matters to voters outside of his loyal base.
“The strongest argument for President Trump’s reelection is his stewardship of the economy,” Republican strategist Josh Holmes said. “Good economic numbers credibly make the case that, despite the pandemic, his administration is a better steward of economic growth and better-paying jobs.”
Democrats are cautiously optimistic about Biden’s position and hopeful there is little that may change the trajectory of the race.
However, a nervous Trump might mount a comeback similar to what he pulled off in 2016, and they are not dismissing the impact good headlines regarding the economy could have this close to the election. What reassures Democrats is that Trump has been downplaying the seriousness of the coronavirus and often chooses to discuss topics other than what might help him the most with swing-state voters and those who are still undecided.
“He’s not a consistent enough messenger to take advantage” of positive economic news, a Democratic strategist said.
