Efforts by former President Donald Trump to establish a political beachhead in Arizona for a possible 2024 White House bid were less certain to succeed after the Republican he endorsed for governor reported a paltry $375,000 war chest.
Kari Lake raised just $1.5 million last year, and spent nearly as much, despite winning Trump’s coveted backing. Wealthy self-funding Republican Karrin Taylor Robson entered 2022 with a much bigger war chest, $3 million, and began advertising on TV this month. Even former Rep. Matt Salmon, who raised slightly less than Lake in 2021, finished the off-year with more money in the bank, $492,000, to spend on his gubernatorial primary campaign.
Lake, a well-known former television news anchor in Phoenix, remains a leading candidate for governor at the outset of the election year, said Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to outgoing Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. “She’s tapped into an enthusiastic part of the base that we know will show up to vote,” he said. But Adams and other Republican operatives in Arizona cautioned against declaring the nomination over because Lake has Trump.
“The contours of the race won’t be set until April,” Adams said.
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Trump’s endorsement provides Lake a crucial advantage.
In a statement Wednesday, a spokesman for the former president projected confidence that the Republican was on her way to being elected governor. “Kari Lake is a star who has not only earned the endorsement of President Donald J. Trump, but who has captured the energy and enthusiasm of the MAGA movement in Arizona,” Taylor Budowich said. “She continues to run a smart campaign and will be a strong and effective governor.”
But Trump’s endorsement is not everything and is not always able to compensate for other shortcomings.
Taylor Robson’s resources could carry her far, and she could appeal to a broader universe of Republican primary voters than Lake once her name identification improves. Salmon’s fundraising was modest. But the former congressman, waging the second bid for governor of his political career, is backed by the influential Club for Growth and has a long history of good relations with grassroots conservatives. Taylor Robson and Salmon are positioning themselves as Trump allies on key issues.
“Things are just getting started, not ending,” a Republican strategist in the Grand Canyon State said.
Arizona holds its primary in early August, giving Republican contenders for governor plenty of time to maneuver. Trump regularly badmouths Ducey for refusing to back his claims that the 2020 election was stolen and rebuffing his attempts to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona. The former president is angling to install loyalists out west who are more likely to defend such claims in the future, and Lake is a key part of that strategy.
Nevada is another critical Western battleground where Trump’s campaign to elevate reliable loyalists is uncertain.
The former president has not endorsed in the Republican gubernatorial primary there. But so far, the candidate stumping the hardest for Trump’s endorsement, Michele Fiore, looks shaky. Fiore boasted in a press release that she raised “almost $700,000” in 2021. But a review of the campaign finance disclosure that her campaign filed Tuesday with the Nevada secretary of state revealed that Fiore raised just under $599,000 and retained just over $189,500 in cash on hand.
The Nevada primary is in mid-June.
That leaves Republican former Sen. Dean Heller, who raised significantly less than Fiore, and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Heller, who lost reelection in 2018, reported more than $650,000 raised in 2021. But that included a personal loan of $100,000 and an additional $176,456 that Heller transferred from his Senate campaign account. By contrast, Lombardo crushed it. He raised nearly $3.2 million and entered 2022 with a $2.7 million war chest.
Lombardo, an Army veteran, is running as a consensus Republican who appeals both to mainstream GOP voters and the Trump populists — not unlike how newly inaugurated Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin approached his campaign in 2021. Lombardo’s profile, and that strategy, could appeal to Trump, who prefers to side with candidates he expects will win as much as candidates who are with him on the issues.
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Another potential advantage for Lombardo is his alliance with Republican strategist Chris Carr, political director of Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign. Carr is helming Better Nevada, a super PAC supporting Lombardo’s 2022 gubernatorial bid that raised $2.3 million last year.
“Joe Lombardo is the conservative Republican who can attract broad support because of his successful law enforcement record as sheriff,” Carr said. “His conservative message and strong base of support have already helped him build a larger fundraising effort than the rest of the Republican field combined. Lombardo is the only Republican who can beat Steve Sisolak.”
