(The Center Square) — The final Meredith Poll before Election Day shows North Carolina Republicans continue to lead most state and national races, though Democrats garnered more support for two state Supreme Court seats.
The Meredith Poll released Tuesday shows Republican U.S. Rep. Ted Budd leading Democrat Cheri Beasley in the state’s race for the U.S. Senate 43.9% to 42.7% among the 724 North Carolinians who responded to the survey Oct. 27-30. The margin of error was 3.4%, and 6.7% remained undecided.
“This race will, as with most Senate elections in North Carolina, comes down to which campaign gets its voters to the polls on or before Election Day,” poll director David McLennan said. “A higher than average turnout among young voters might propel Beasley to victory, while strong turnout outside the major urban counties would bode well for Ted Budd. There are far fewer undecided voters with just over a week left in the campaign.
“Historically, many of these late deciders go with the Republican candidate, so even though most voters have made up their minds, these late deciders will be important.”
Republicans led by a slightly larger spread — 45.7% to 42.8% — in a generic ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives, with 7.9% of those surveyed still unsure.
For the state Senate, 44.7% of respondents said they plan to vote for the Republican candidate, compared to 43.8% who said they would vote Democrat. Republicans also held a slim lead in the state House, where 44.3% backed their Republican candidate versus 44% who backed Democrats.
There were 8.4% of those polled who remained undecided about their state House candidate, and 7.9% remained undecided on their state Senate vote.
“Since the U.S. House races, along with those for the N.C. Senate and N.C. House are decided on a district level, generic ballots only show broad trends and may not reflect how individual races are heading,” McLennan said. “The small margins indicate that the competitive races — in U.S. House District 13 and about 15% of the legislative races — may be extremely close this year. There are more undecided voters at this late stage of the campaign, so they will have a large voice in how these competitive races turn out.”
Two races for the North Carolina Supreme Court were the only ones where Democrats held an advantage in the Meredith Poll, which showed support for generic Republican candidates at 43.7%, compared to 44.9% support for Democratic candidates. The poll results showed 8.7% undecided.
While previous polls found stronger support for the Republican Supreme Court candidates, McLennan predicts the seats for the state’s highest court will likely end up in the hands of the party that wins the U.S. Senate race.
“The Supreme Court races are very important this year with the Court currently divided between four Democratic justices and three Republican ones,” he said. “I suspect the Supreme Court races might go as the U.S. Senate race goes. If Ted Budd does well, the two Republican candidates may win. If Cheri Beasley wins the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic candidates may prevail.”
Overall, voter enthusiasm was very high in the Meredith Poll, with 87% of respondents saying they are likely to vote. Over 70% of both Democrats and Republicans indicated they were very likely to vote, while just under 55% of unaffiliated voters indicated the same. A much higher percentage of older voters said they were very likely to vote, compared to the youngest voters in the 18-24 age bracket who were generally “somewhat” likely to vote.
“The high percentage of voters indicating that they were very likely to vote suggests we may exceed the voter turnout in 2018,” McLennan said. “Although young voters don’t indicate the same likelihood of voting, compared to Gen X, Baby Boomer, and Silent Generation voters, if turnout of the youngest cohort of voters exceeds 40 percent this year, that could be historic.”
