A week before the election, President Trump delivered something via the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett that eluded even Ronald Reagan: a clear-cut conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
With Barrett now succeeding the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the nation’s highest court appears to have a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices nominated by Trump himself. The sight of Justice Clarence Thomas swearing her in thrilled the Right.
The question is now whether Republican voters will reward Trump for fulfilling a campaign promise to model his judicial picks after the late Justice Antonin Scalia or grow complacent now that the seat is filled, as Democrats head to the polls eager to avenge Ginsburg and the blocked Barack Obama nominee Merrick Garland.
Further complicating the equation is that this new conservative majority is not safe if Democrats win the White House and the Senate. Liberals have called for expanding the Supreme Court so they can confirm additional like-minded justices. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has expressed misgivings about court-packing but also refused to rule it out if Barrett was swiftly confirmed before the election.
“Republicans will still be motivated to vote because they are seeing Trump’s promises being kept in real time,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean. “Many will also vote to prevent the Democrats from packing the Supreme Court.”
That certainly seems to be the case judging by the reactions of conservative groups. “This victory would not be possible without the unwavering leadership of President Trump, [Senate Majority] Leader [Mitch] McConnell, and our pro-life Senate majority,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List, in a statement. “They have worked seamlessly to confirm three Supreme Court justices and 215 lower court judges. This legacy is on the ballot next week, as Democrats are hell-bent on expanding the Supreme Court and adding lower court judges if they win. We must re-elect President Trump and our Senate majority to preserve the Supreme Court and the integrity of the judiciary.”
“Justice Amy Barrett’s confirmation is a historic achievement for the conservative legal movement, which has persevered for more than three decades in pursuit of a Supreme Court majority that will follow the Constitution,” said Carrie Severino, president of the conservative Judicial Crisis Network, in a statement. Severino’s group has already moved on from working for Barrett’s confirmation to battling against court-packing.
“Pro-life Americans, who know all too well the danger of activist judges, welcome the confirmation of this exceptional judge. But all Americans can celebrate the confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, who possesses the skill and character needed to sit on the high court,” March for Life President Jeanne Mancini said. “We thank President Trump for nominating Judge Barrett, and Leader McConnell and all Senators who voted in favor of confirming soon-to-be Justice Barrett.”
Down-ballot Republicans are also celebrating. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is wearing Barrett’s confirmation as a feather in his cap as he finds himself in a surprisingly competitive reelection fight. McConnell is safer in Kentucky, but nevertheless blasted out a statement saying he “followed through on his mission to leave no vacancy behind.” One exception is centrist Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who voted against Barrett as she faces a revolt from her blue-state constituents.
Democrats are also motivated by what they see as yet another stolen seat. “Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, and the Republican Party have now completed the decades-long conservative project to rig the U.S. Supreme Court,” said the left-wing group MoveOn.org in a statement to supporters. The ranks of Democratic senators voting to confirm Trump nominees has fallen from three with Neil Gorsuch to one with Brett Kavanaugh and now zero for Barrett.
According to exit polls, Trump benefited in 2016 from his pledge to fill Scalia’s seat with a proven conservative, backed by a list of prospective nominees vetted by the conservative legal network. Conservatives have been let down by Republican court nominees more often than liberals have been by Democratic picks.
But Democrats might assign a higher priority to the court as they vote this year, especially if they fear the justices will decide the election. Or, Barrett could be dwarfed by other issues.
“There’s not much evidence that ACB is having a significant impact on this election,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant. “One of the most striking things about this election is how little the polls move. If a pandemic, recession, and protests don’t move Trump’s poll numbers, I’m skeptical that anything can.”
