Detroit — Ahead of the state’s Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, Michigan has attracted the attention of the political world, and for good reason.
In addition to being the biggest delegate prize Tuesday, Michigan is the first key Midwest battleground state to hold its primary. The outcome could be indicative of whether the results of Super Tuesday have lasting power heading into the final primaries and beyond. Michigan, along with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, flipped red for President Trump in 2016, making them important prizes this time around.
“Right now, Michigan is the state to watch,” says Detroit-based political consultant Mario Morrow Sr.
Michigan Democratic voters seem most energized about one thing: Choosing a candidate who can beat Trump. That’s the top issue among Democrats statewide, who appear to understand the importance of getting behind a nominee and doing it early.
After a less-than-stellar performance on Super Tuesday, Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders is looking to this state as his chance to regain some momentum. He won the primary here four years ago, narrowly trumping Hillary Clinton by 1.5 percentage points. So it should have been his race to lose.
Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, has his work cut out for him. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll released Wednesday found former Vice President Joe Biden leading the Vermont senator by nearly 7 percentage points, 29% to 22.5%. Subsequent polls, surveying Michigan after Super Tuesday, found an even larger lead for Biden.
“What we’re seeing is Democrats are putting policy differences aside and supporting someone who can win,” says Howard Edelson, a Michigan-based Democratic political consultant.
Pollster Richard Czuba of the Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll, told The Detroit News the results show a surge for Biden, reflecting his success in South Carolina. As Czuba observed, the race is close and will continue to be so. It’s a matter of who turns out to vote.
Anything is possible. It’s worth noting that prior to Michigan’s 2016 primary, the RealClearPolitics poll average had Clinton up over Sanders by 21.4 percentage points.
In this primary, the split in support between Biden and Sanders comes down to several factors, including age and race.
Voters under 50 side more with Sanders, but as Sanders has admitted, he’s had a hard time getting younger voters out to the polls. Older voters tend to be more reliable, which could bode well for Biden in Michigan. Sanders is polling better among college-educated men, with Biden playing more favorably among blue-collar voters and women.
African Americans here are throwing their support behind Biden over Sanders solidly, 41% to 16%, and black voters will play a crucial role in the election cycle.
“Joe Biden is respected and well-liked,” Morrow says. “He listens calmly, and he talks to you. Bernie Sanders is angry and loud — in the black community, that’s offensive.”
Another key bloc in Michigan are the suburban Macomb County Democrats who defected to Trump. The president’s success in Michigan, as well as states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, was tied to his ability to attract blue-collar, union voters on promises of returning jobs to the United States and better trade deals.
If Biden can woo those voters back in strong numbers, that would spell trouble for Trump.
Biden is also benefiting from a host of endorsements from moderate Democrats, including previous presidential contenders former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke — all of whom offered their support just ahead of the Super Tuesday contests.
The endorsements, which seem to be making a big difference, have kept coming. On Thursday, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whose name has been floated as a potential vice presidential nominee, endorsed Biden. Former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan have backed him as well.
But nothing is certain in Michigan, which has a history of making unexpected choices, especially in primaries. For instance, the Great Lakes State went for George Wallace in 1972 and Jesse Jackson in 1988. And Michigan surprised everyone in the 2016 general election when it went for Trump, albeit by roughly 10,000 votes.
“Michigan is of great importance because it’s more reflective of the diversity of the nation,” Edelson says. “If Bernie can’t win here, it pierces his electability argument.”
Ingrid Jacques is deputy editorial page editor of the Detroit News. Follow her on Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques.
