ISIS is on the rebound, establishing ‘attack zones’ and ‘support zones’

Published April 22, 2019 11:25am ET



ISIS’S ZONE OFFENSE: ISIS may have lost its last “zone of territorial control” in Syria last month, but its Plan B is gaining momentum across Iraq and Syria, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

A new map prepared by ISW breaks down ISIS’ resurgent campaign into three zones: a small “control zone” where the group still exerts some form of physical or psychological pressure on the local population, various “support zones” where it is free of significant military action against it, and “attack zones” where ISIS is conducting offensive maneuvers.

IN SYRIA: “ISIS has intensified and expanded its resurgent attack campaign targeting the rear areas of the SDF [Syrian Democratic Forces] in Northern Syria,” the ISW analysis says. “ISIS is concentrating its attacks along two primary sections of the ground line of communication between Deir ez-Zour Province and Hasaka Province in Eastern Syria.”

IN IRAQ: “ISIS is reestablishing a support zone in the southwest quadrant of the Baghdad Belts in order to link its operations in Anbar Province to Baghdad and Southern Iraq. ISIS is working to rebuild its networks in Northern Babil Province. ISIS will likely use this zone to project force into Baghdad and south towards soft targets in the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf,” the report concludes.

IN AFGHANISTAN: Meanwhile in Afghanistan, an ISIS affiliate claims it was behind a suicide attack Saturday in Kabul that killed seven people. The group said in a statement yesterday that four “martyrdom seekers” targeted the telecommunications ministry, according to the Associated Press.

Local Afghan officials said a suicide bomber struck outside the ministry, clearing the way for four gunmen to enter the heavily guarded compound in central Kabul.

DISAPPOINTED: Over the weekend, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani to express U.S. disappointment over the indefinite postponement of Afghan talks with the Taliban and to condemn the Taliban announcement of its annual spring offensive, according to a statement released yesterday.

“The Secretary condemned the Taliban’s recent announcement of a spring offensive and underscored the United States’ solidarity with the Afghan people’s pursuit of a comprehensive peace agreement that would end the suffering and destruction,” the statement said. “He also expressed the United States’ disappointment that the intra-Afghan dialogue, planned for Doha, Qatar, had been postponed.”

The Afghan-to-Afghan talks were scheduled for last Friday in Qatar, where the terrorist group maintains an office, but were postponed after the Taliban objected to the size of the Afghan delegation.

“The Secretary and President Ghani agreed that the Doha conference presents an important opportunity to advance peace,” the State Department said. “The Secretary encouraged all sides to seize the moment and reach an understanding on participants, so that an inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue can be convened in Doha as soon as possible.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to announce that time’s up for five nations, including U.S. allies Japan, South Korea, and Turkey, that were granted waivers from U.S. sanctions imposed on Iranian oil exports. After May 2, those allies, along with China and India, will be subject to U.S. sanctions if they do not immediately stop buying oil from Iran.

The sanctions were imposed on Iran last year, but eight countries were granted waivers. Since then, three of the eight (Italy, Greece, and Taiwan) have stopped importing oil from Iran.

The move comes as the Trump administration seeks to put maximum pressure on Iran, but it could lead to higher oil and gasoline prices in the United States.

ECONOMIC NOT MILITARY PRESSURE: Pompeo told a group of Iranian-American community leaders last week that America will not be using military force to bring about regime change in Iran, according to Axios.

“In a closed-door meeting with Iranian-American community leaders last Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the Trump administration is ‘not going to do a military exercise inside Iran’ to expedite a regime change,” Axios reported, citing three sources who were in the room.

“Our mission set is to give them the opportunity … capacity to create opportunity, create that and provide transitional support,” he reportedly told the group. “Our best interest is a non-revolutionary set of leaders leading Iran.”

IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF: Iran has appointed a new chief of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who has a history of threatening the United States. Gen. Hossein Salami had been serving as a deputy commander in the Guard.

The move by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes after the United States designated the IRGC a terrorist organization.

POMPEO: STILL ON THE TEAM: On Friday, Pompeo brushed aside North Korea’s “suggestion” that he step aside and let someone “who is more careful and mature” take over denuclearization negotiations with Pyongyang.

“Nothing’s changed. We’ll continue to work, to negotiate. Still in charge of the team,” Pompeo said when asked about the comments made last week by Kwon Jong Gun, who heads the North Korean foreign ministry’s department of American affairs.

Kwon accused Pompeo of “self-indulgence” and “reckless remarks” and blamed him for the impasse that led to President Trump abruptly walking out of the February summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

WHAT’S IN THOSE ‘SPECIAL’ RAILCARS?: The North Korean monitoring group 38 North says recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates the presence and movement of specialized railcars between April 12 and 15.

But what that means is unclear, although a year ago the railcars appeared around the time of reprocessing campaigns to extract plutonium for nuclear weapons. “It is important to note that they can serve a number of purposes other than transporting radioactive materials,” the group says.

“At the moment, it is impossible to reach unambiguous conclusions about which function the specialized railcars observed at the Yongbyon complex actually serve,” and “other observable indicators of reprocessing — such as smoke coming from the Radiochemical Laboratory Thermal Plant’s smokestack or vapor from its cooling tower — have not been spotted.”

ALSO TODAY: President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump host the 2019 White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House. Also attending, according to his schedule: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

UKRAINE’S ELECTION RESULTS NO JOKE: Technically the votes are still being counted, but exit polls are forecasting a landslide victory for Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian who plays a fictional president in the Ukrainian TV sitcom “Servant of the People.” Zelensky, a political neophyte, won 73 percent of the vote in a runoff election against incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, who has conceded.

IT TAKES TWO TO TANGO: An essay by an Army public affairs officer lamenting the state of military-media relations and blaming politicized journalists for the reluctance of military officials to engage reporters roiled Twitter over the weekend.

The personal essay by Army Capt. Chase Spears, published by the Modern War Institute at West Point, noted the recent media reports about the lack of on-camera briefings by an official Defense Department spokesperson for almost a year and argued the Pentagon is “getting a bad rap.”

“What these reports fail to consider is the culpability that some journalists share in creating legitimate concerns about going on camera in a period of increasingly divisive politics. That divisiveness has contributed to a blurring of the lines between professional journalism and punditry, putting at jeopardy the journalistic ethics to which the national-level press corps has traditionally abided,” Chase wrote. “It becomes reasonable for military leaders to at least wonder whether these journalists can be trusted to report accurately. I would not advise my commander to go on camera with a journalist who has demonstrated a willingness to report before investigating.”

That sparked intense blowback from many retired military public affairs officers, but probably none more vociferous than veteran Army PAO Fred Wellman, who launched a Twitter tirade in response.

“You chose to serve as a PAO. You do it apolitically. You do it for the American people. You do it even when people are mean to you. You do it when someone dies. You do it when the Army fucks up. That’s your job. If you can’t do it. Get the fuck out. Period,” Wellman wrote on Twitter.

“So Chase…I hope someone who is a more senior PAO takes the time to pull you aside and tell you what a giant pile of steaming crap your article is because me as a retired officer, PAO, combat veteran, tax payer and Army father isn’t having it. I’m your boss. Clearly you forgot.”

BORDER INCIDENT: Armed Mexican troops disarmed two American soldiers while they were on the American side of the border, according to U.S. defense officials. U.S. Northern Command said in a statement that “five to six Mexican military personnel questioned two U.S. Army soldiers who were conducting border support operations” this month.

The two U.S. soldiers were in an unmarked Customs and Border Protection vehicle near the southwest border near Clint, Texas, on the south side of the security perimeter but north of the Rio Grande and thus in U.S. territory.

Pentagon and Department of Homeland Security officials demanded an explanation from the Mexican government.

NON-COMBAT DEATHS: Over the weekend, the Pentagon announced the deaths of a soldier and an airman who each died in what was described as a “non-combat-related incident.”

In Iraq, Army Spc. Ryan Dennis Orin Riley died April 20 in Ninawa Province. Riley, 22, from Richmond, Ky., was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 32nd Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), Fort Campbell, Ky..

And in Qatar, Air Force Staff Sgt. Albert J. Miller died April 19 at Al Udeid Air Base. Miller, 24, of Richmond, N.H., was assigned to the 736th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware.

The Rundown

Reuters: China To Show New Warships As Beijing Flexes Military Muscle On Navy Anniversary

Washington Times: Turkey To Consider Russian-Made Fighter Jets, Should U.S. Cancel F-35 Deal

Washington Post: True ISIS believers regroup inside refugee camp, terrorize the ‘impious’

Washington Examiner: Trump snapped at H.R. McMaster for taking notes: Report

CNN: Pentagon, DHS considering designating fentanyl a WMD, memo says

Task and Purpose: First came the explosion. Then, the cover-up.

NBC News: Hidden camera found in women’s bathroom aboard Navy ship

Washington Examiner: Russia and China close to deal on ‘very big’ Arctic projects that would move natural gas

USNI News: Submariners Are Suing South Carolina to Save Cold War-Era Attack Boat

Pensacola News Journal: Blue Angels Begin The Shift To Super Hornets

Calendar

MONDAY | APRIL 22

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association’s 2019 Homeland Security Conference, with the theme “Securing the Homeland: Identify, Reduce and Mitigate Risks.” Speakers include: Kevin Boshears, director of the Homeland Security Department’s Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization, and Darlene Bullock, deputy director of the Homeland Security Department’s Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization. events.afcea.org

11 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council discussion on “The Future of Afghanistan: Ongoing Negotiations and the Role of Regional Allies.” Speakers include; Daud Khattak, senior editor at Radio Mashaal; Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center; Omar Samad, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center; and Fatemeh Aman, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

TUESDAY | APRIL 23

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Association of the U.S. Army’s Institute of Land Warfare discussion with Army Reserve Chief Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, commanding general of the Army Reserve Command. www.ausa.org

8 a.m. 800 21st Street N.W. Atlantic Council eighth annual International Conference on Cyber Engagement. Speakers include: Amy Hess, executive assistant director of the FBI’s Criminal, Cyber, Response and Services Branch; Deputy Assistant Attorney General Adam Hickey; Assistant Energy Secretary for Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response Karen Evans; Christopher Krebs, director of the Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Air Force Brig. Gen. Timothy Haugh, commander of Cyber Command’s Cyber National Mission Force; and former Homeland Security secretary Michael Chertoff. www.atlanticcouncil.org

8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. National Defense Industrial Association, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the Air Force Association and the Reserve Officers Association forum on “The Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent Rationale and Strategic Nuclear Requirements.” Speakers: Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Roger Burg and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Donald Alston. www.afa.org

9:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. U.S. Institute of Peace discussion on a new report, “A New Approach to Preventing Extremism in Fragile States.” Speakers: Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; and Army Gen. Michael Nagata, director for strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center; Alina Romanowski, principal deputy coordinator for counterterrorism at the State Department; and Swiss Ambassador to the U.S. Martin Dahinden. www.usip.org

4 p.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council discussion on “Implementing Expansion of the National Technology Industry Base.” Speakers: Jeffrey “Scott” Blum, principal industrial policy director at the Defense Department; Samatha Clark, special counsel at Covington; Brett Lambert, vice president of corporate strategy at Northrop Grumman; and William Greenwalt, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Center for Strategy and Security. www.atlanticcouncil.org

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Aerospace Security Project screens film “Commanding Space: The Story Behind the Space Force” and discussion on “Evaluating the Global Counterspace Landscape.” Speakers: Victoria Samson, Washington office director of the Secure World Foundation; Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Todd Harrison, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; Kaitlyn Johnson, associate director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Thomas Roberts, program manager of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project. www.csis.org

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 24

8 a.m. 2201 G St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with John Sopko, special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. Crain Center Duques Hall, George Washington School of Business. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu

8:30 a.m. 1819 L St. N.W. Sasakawa USA hosts its 6th Annual Security Forum, “The U.S.-Japan Alliance: New Security Challenges.” Speakers include Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Shinsuke Sugiyama, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty; former Director of National Intelligence retired Adm. Dennis Blair; and chairman of the Asia Pacific Initiative Yoichi Funabashi. Livestreamed at spfusa.org/event. Register at events.r20.constantcontact.com.

FRIDAY | APRIL 26

8:15 a.m. 1777 F Street, N.W. FBI director Christopher Wray discusses the bureau’s role in protecting the United States from today’s global threats with Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Livestreamed at www.cfr.org/event.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Unfortunately, many national journalists too often simply do things like give prominent news placement to a retired four-star general who described the deaths of American service members as the ‘cost to doing things in the world, being engaged.’ Gone are the practices of men like Walter Cronkite, who demanded strategic justification for American lives spent overseas.”

Army Capt. Chase Spears, in a personal essay on the state of U.S. military-media relations that sparked a spirited debate on Twitter.