Though Joe Biden became the Democratic nominee on Tuesday night, strategists in both parties believe the movement led by Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator and vanquished rival, may win the party’s future.
“Our campaign ended several months ago, but our movement continues and is getting stronger every day,” Sanders said in his speech to the Democratic National Convention on Monday night. “Many of the ideas we fought for, that just a few years ago were considered ‘radical,’ are now mainstream.”
“This isn’t even Barack Obama’s party anymore,” said a former Trump 2016 campaign official. “It’s the party of Bernie and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.”
That’s a big part of the Republican Party’s messaging this year, in what promises to be a challenging election cycle. “Tonight, with Chuck Schumer and AOC sharing the stage, voters are going to get a taste of what direction this country will go in without the commonsense and effective leadership from the Republican Senate Majority,” National Republican Senatorial Committee communications director Jesse Hunt said in a statement before the second night of the Democratic convention. “As Schumer and his candidates openly discuss eliminating the filibuster and AOC operates as the de facto leader of the House, the threat of a radical socialist agenda has never been greater.”
In other words, even if you don’t vote to reelect President Trump, you need to retain a Republican majority in the Senate, or Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris will unleash the Bernie Bros and “The Squad” on the country.
Democrats reject this framing, pointing out that their primary voters explicitly rejected Sanders and rallied to Biden only after the Vermont socialist threatened to take the lead following strong performances in several early state contests. “We will stay united, from Sanders and Warren to Manchin and Warner — and together, we will bring bold and dramatic change to our country,” Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, vowed in his remarks to the Democratic convention Tuesday.
But liberal commentators have noted the leftward drift of the Democratic platform. “You know, I think what’s funny is that actually, Biden’s platform is far more liberal than Barack Obama’s was years ago,” said Mara Gay, a New York Times editorial board member, in an appearance on MSNBC. “So when we looked at that as an editorial board, we were blown kinda away how much more similar it is to Bernie Sanders’s platform in some ways than Barack Obama in 2008.”
Barack Obama supplied the main evidence that Democrats could win a national election by running to the left of Bill Clinton, who also spoke to the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday night, with his victories in 2008 and 2012. Biden, however reluctantly, may test whether Democrats can win running to the left of Obama.
Not long ago, this would have been political suicide. Michael Dukakis, a proud “card-carrying member” of the American Civil Liberties Union, won just 10 states as the Democratic nominee in 1988. Walter Mondale nabbed only his home state of Minnesota in 1984, by fewer than one vote per precinct. George McGovern was also wiped out in a 49-state landslide in 1972, taking only Massachusetts. All three Democrats won the District of Columbia, which has never voted for a Republican presidential candidate.
Clinton-style centrism was seen as the only way for Democrats to compete nationally. Obama’s two terms plus Hillary Clinton’s narrow loss in 2016 convinced them otherwise. Democrats are winning in blue states and congressional districts embracing the socialist label. The ranks of socially conservative congressional Democrats have never been thinner. The country’s demographics, from the rise of millennials and Generation Z to large-scale immigration, have changed since 1972 or even 1988 in ways that convince many Democrats that the progressive electoral coalition is ascendant.
Then there is Trump’s precarious position as an incumbent during a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest. His job approval rating is hovering in the low 40s, and people keep telling pollsters the country is on the wrong track. Trump trails Biden by 7.7 points in the latest RealClearPolitics national polling average.
“His only chance for reelection, in my opinion, is a good economy,” said a Republican strategist who has lost confidence in the president. “If the economy is in the tank, it’s over. He gets beat on every other issue and drags down Senate Republicans with him.”
Even as Democrats showcase their party’s most liberal members, giving Sanders a major speaking slot ahead of Michelle Obama on opening night, they have tried to reassure wavering centrists that Biden could be their man.
“I’m sure there are Republicans and independents who couldn’t imagine crossing over to support a Democrat. They fear Joe may turn sharp left and leave them behind,” said Republican former Ohio Gov. John Kasich in his convention speech. “I don’t believe that because I know the measure of the man. It’s reasonable, faithful, respectful.”
