Republicans cross President Trump at their peril, as Rep. Martha Roby discovered when primary voters in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District pushed her into a runoff with the former Democrat she ousted in the red wave of 2010.
Roby, toward the conclusion of the 2016 presidential campaign, lashed Trump for his treatment of women after the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape was publicized during which the leader of the Republican Party bragged about committing actions that amount to sexual assault. Grassroots Republicans, loyal as ever to Trump, never forgot — or forgave.
“Once you’re tainted as less than 100 percent pure on the Trump scale, that can be used against you in a Republican primary,” John Couvillon, a GOP pollster from Louisiana who specializes in surveying campaigns in the Deep South, said Wednesday. “When you’re talking about being a Republican who is not close enough to the president, that is deadly.”
“Rep. Roby’s voting record reflects her commitment to a shared conservative agenda with the Trump administration,” said Roby spokesperson Emily Taylor. ” We now have a president who will sign conservative measures into law, and she wants nothing more than for the president to be successful. When he’s successful, Alabama is successful. Rep. Roby will continue to use her seat in Congress to advocate for the conservative principles that are important to the people in AL-02.”
The congresswoman finished first in Tuesday’s Republican primary. But she didn’t come close to cracking 50 percent, which forced her into a July 17 runoff.
Roby garnered just 39 percent of the vote, a weak number for a fourth term incumbent. Bobby Bright, well known still, was a Democratic congressman when Roby tossed him out of office eight years ago; he finished second with 28 percent. Minor candidates divvied up the remaining 33 percent of the vote.
After news broke of Trump’s comments on the “Access Hollywood” tape in October 2016, about one month before the presidential election, Roby said she would not vote for him. “Donald Trump’s behavior makes him unacceptable as a candidate for president, and I will not vote for him,” she said at the time. Roby long ago abandoned her opposition to Trump.
“Rep. Roby has enjoyed a positive working relationship with the Trump administration, and she’s been to the White House on a number of occasions for roundtables and bill signings related to shared priorities,” said Taylor. “She looks forward to continuing this relationship.”
But Republican insiders concede the 19-month-old dust-up is responsible for her inability to avoid a runoff. The president’s job approval rating with GOP voters is high — among the highest for a president of their own party in a generation. He is particularly popular in Alabama.
“It was definitely the reason she had people running against her in a primary,” a Republican operative aligned with Roby said. “She reacted the way she reacted but has done smart things since then to close the gap. I’ve talked to Trump people, and she’s not one he’s going to hold a grudge on.”
Republicans backing Roby argue that Bright’s past support for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., when she was the speaker, will be a disqualifier in the runoff. Bright held the Southeastern Alabama 2nd District for a single term from 2009 to 2011, during the Democrats’ brief stint in the majority.
Pelosi is uniquely unpopular with Republicans — enough that GOP operatives are counting on advertising that ties Democratic candidates to the House minority leader to save vulnerable incumbents in targeted districts. Bright is about to face similar ads, as the Republican establishment behind Roby mobilizes to protect her.
It’s an interesting dynamic that will test what Republican voters despise more: Past disloyalty to Trump or past fidelity to Pelosi.
“We’ve run this race before,” said Taylor, the Roby spokesman. “The people who live and work in Alabama’s 2nd District rejected the liberal policies that came as a result of the Obama-Pelosi era when they elected a Republican to replace Democrat Bobby Bright. Rep. Roby is confident voters will send this message again.”
“Bobby Bright has done nothing in the seven years since he was in office to show GOP bona fides, until he decided to run,” Alex Schriver, a Republican consultant with Alabama ties, said. “He can’t shake Pelosi; that’s so damning.”
