CHINA: ‘STATUS QUO NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE’: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is warning that Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is about to be awarded an unprecedented third five-year term as leader of China, has grown impatient with Taiwan and wants to take control of the self-governing island much sooner than previously thought.
“There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” said Blinken at a Hoover Institution event at Stanford University.
Blinken said Xi is “profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions” as he ramps up the threats to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. “And if peaceful means didn’t work, then it would employ coercive means — and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means — to achieve its objectives.”
“I hope that Beijing will come back to a place where it actually sees the merits in making sure that differences are peacefully resolved, that it doesn’t try to force things through coercion and, even worse, through force,” Blinken said. “We are determined to make good on our commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and supporting their ability to defend themselves.”
XI’S LATEST THREAT: Blinken’s warning comes as President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan if it were to be invaded by mainland China, most recently in a CBS 60 Minutes interview, and as Biden’s just-released National Security Strategy names China as America’s “only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it.”
And it follows Xi Jinping’s Sunday speech to the Chinese Communist Party National Congress, where he expressed frustration with what he called “serious provocations from separatist activities by Taiwan independence forces” and specifically vowed that “complete reunification of the motherland must be realized and can certainly be realized.”
“We persist in striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity,” Xi said. “However, there is no commitment to renounce the use of force, and the option to take all necessary measures is retained.”
XI WILLING TO TAKE ‘ALL MEASURES NECESSARY’ AGAINST ‘INTERFERENCE’ ON TAIWAN
THE US STRATEGY: The unclassified version of the Biden strategy calls for the U.S. to outcompete China while finding areas of cooperation, such as working to combat climate change and improve global health.
“It is possible for the United States and the PRC to coexist peacefully, and share in and contribute to human progress together,” the 48-page document said, insisting that despite Biden’s promise to send troops to defend Taiwan if necessary, U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unchanged.
“We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side, and do not support Taiwan independence. We remain committed to our one China policy,” the document stated.
“We made it clear that we consider China a strategic competitor and we mean to compete. There’s no reason for it to devolve into aggressiveness or open conflict,” said John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, on CNN. “But we will make sure in every way, and it’s right there in that strategy, that we’re going to be able to defend our national security interests and we’re going to be able to deal with the threats and challenges that emanate from the Indo-Pacific, including those from the PRC.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Heritage Foundation is unveiling its 2023 edition of the Index of U.S. Military Strength, an annual report card on how the U.S. military is faring, and the conservative think tank said U.S. military forces are in “a diminished state” and that this year’s rankings of the services should be “a sobering wake-up call to anyone who wants to keep America free, safe, and prosperous in a changing world.”
“As currently postured, the U.S. military is at growing risk of not being able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests. It is rated as weak relative to the force needed to defend national interests on a global stage against actual challenges in the world as it is rather than as we wish it were,” said the report’s executive summary. “This is the logical consequence of years of sustained use, underfunding, poorly defined priorities, wildly shifting security policies, exceedingly poor discipline in program execution, and a profound lack of seriousness across the national security establishment even as threats to U.S. interests have surged.”
This morning, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Dakota Wood, senior research fellow, defense programs at Heritage, will discuss the report’s conclusions at 10 a.m., and you can read the full report here.
UKRAINE NEEDS MORE SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENSE: With Russia moving to low, slow-flying, Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones for terror attacks against civilian infrastructure, Ukraine now needs a different kind of air defense to shoot more of them down, according to U.S. military experts.
Ukraine is under drone attack again today, and while the noisy drones, which sound like gas lawnmowers, are being shot down in significant numbers, enough is getting through to cause havoc. Ukraine claimed that of 43 drones launched yesterday, 37 were destroyed before they hit a target.
“We saw that the Ukrainians were able to knock out 85%. But again, they’re being deployed in swarms, so a few are going to get through,” said retired Army Brig. Gen. Steve Anderson on CNN.
“What they need is they need some low-range capability. And I submit to you that we need to look at the United States at providing the C-RAM system. That’s the C-RAM, counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar. These are incredibly effective systems,” said Anderson, who used the system when he commanded U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
“If you got something that’s good enough to shoot out a mortar round, then, I mean, it’s going to be easy pickings for anything that’s flying in a UAV,” he said. “These are the systems that the United States needs to get on the ground in Ukraine now.”
“We’re going to continue to provide them air defense capabilities,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on CNN. “I don’t have anything to announce today or get ahead of the next shipment, but I can tell you that from short to medium range, we have been working closely to try to get them the kinds of capabilities that they need.”
IRAN IN FOCUS AS RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ENDANGER WESTERN DIPLOMATS IN UKRAINE
ELON VS. ADAM: Lame-duck Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) has been challenging billionaire Elon Musk on Twitter over the Tesla CEO’s suggestions that Russia needs to be taken seriously over its threats to use a tactical nuclear weapon if it’s losing on the battlefield.
“If Russia faces destruction of their army and utter defeat by NATO, they will use nukes, then NATO will respond with nukes and civilization is over,” Musk tweeted yesterday.
Which prompted Kinzinger to respond, “So if you get nukes and threaten it, you will never be defeated. Great lesson. Now everyone will get nukes.”
“If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter. We’ve already sanctioned/cutoff Russia in every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose?” Musk tweeted, expanding on his premise. “If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.”
“Whether one likes it or not, Crimea is absolutely seen as a core part of Russia by Russia,” Musk said, repeating one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main arguments. “Crimea is also of critical national security importance to Russia, as it is their southern navy base. From their standpoint losing Crimea is like USA losing Hawaii & Pearl Harbor.”
FIONA HILL SAYS MUSK IS ‘TRANSMITTING A MESSAGE FOR PUTIN’ WITH PEACE PROPOSAL
SAVE THOSE DOCS: Concerned that the Biden administration may be covering up documentation of some of its missteps during last year’s evacuation of U.S. forces and partners from Afghanistan, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) is requesting the State Department preserve all documents related to what he called “the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.”
“I am writing to formally request the preservation of documents and to renew prior requests for information regarding last year’s disastrous Afghanistan evacuation — some stretching back more than a year — for which we have not received satisfactory responses,” McCaul wrote in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“Access to this information is critical to the Constitutional legislative and oversight responsibilities of Congress, and it is unacceptable for such requests to be ignored or given the attention they deserve.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Iran in focus as Russian drone strikes endanger Western diplomats in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Exxon fully exits Russia after Putin nationalizes assets
Washington Examiner: Russia continues attacks on Kyiv with Iranian ‘kamikaze’ drones
Washington Examiner: Ukraine and Russia agree to prisoner exchange freeing more than 200
Washington Examiner: Xi willing to take ‘all measures necessary’ against ‘interference’ on Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Will Russia’s conscript woes roil Vladimir Putin’s government?
Washington Examiner: DOJ says Steve Bannon should be sentenced to six months in prison for ‘contempt of Congress’
Washington Post: Most Ukrainians want to fight until victory, poll shows
New York Times: Deadly Message Sent by Drones: It’s Russia and Iran vs. the West
Wall Street Journal: Russia Gives Ukraine Nuclear Plant Workers Ultimatum to Pick a Side
Breaking Defense: China’s Military Committee Leadership at Stake at Xi’s Peoples Congress
Defense One: When China Pushes, Push Back, Admiral Says
Defense News: Senate To Add $10 Billion In Taiwan Aid, Scale Back Arms Sale Reform
Washington Post: Western Suppliers Ditch Chinese Chipmakers Over U.S. Export Rules
Yonhap: Accusations That U.S. Provoked N. Korean Missile Tests ‘Baloney’: State Department
Politico: Pentagon Eyes Locking in Starlink Funding for Ukraine
Defense News: Lawmakers Seek Emergency Powers For Pentagon’s Ukraine War Contracting
Business Insider: A Quiet US Move In The Mediterranean May Help Put More Pressure On Russia, But Not Everyone In NATO Is Happy About It
Air & Space Forces Magazine: TRANSCOM Unveils More Agile Strategy to Deter China, Defend Logistics
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Roper, Former Joint Chiefs Chair Join Defense Innovation Board for First Meeting in Two Years
Wall Street Journal: US Pushes to Keep B-52 Bombers Going as Pressure From China Grows
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Image of New B-52 Cockpit Shows a Cleaner Layout
Defense News: US Air Force Tests Exoskeleton to Give Cargo-loading Porters a Boost
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Crisis: The Russian Military Is Failing in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Putin Doesn’t Care: Russia Rushes Untrained, Unequipped Troops to Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: How to Organize Ukraine’s Army After the War with Russia
19fortyfive.com: The Iranian Drones and Ballistic Missiles That Might End Up in Russia’s Arsenal
19fortyfive.com: Mackenzie Eaglen: Opinion: Why Biden’s National Security Strategy Is Destined to Fail
Forbes: Marine Corps War Plans Are Too Sino-Centric. What About The Other 90% Of The World?
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 18
7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association “Precision Strike Technology Symposium,” with Navy Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director of Strategic Systems Programs; and Air Force Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration at Air Force Headquarters https://www.ndia.org/
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion: “The Diminished State of Today’s Military,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Dakota Wood, Heritage senior research fellow for defense programs; and Kevin Roberts, president, Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/the-diminished-state-todays-military
10:30 a.m. 1744 R St. N.W. — German Marshall Fund of the United States discussion focusing on the war in Ukraine, with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur and Kristine Berzina, GMFUS senior fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/conversation-defense-minister-hanno-pevkur
12 p.m. — Middle East Institute and American Task Force on Lebanon virtual discussion: “The historic Lebanon-Israel maritime agreement,” with Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), co-chairman of the U.S.-Lebanon Friendship Caucus; U.S. Special Envoy for Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein; and Lebanese Parliament Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab https://www.mei.edu/events/atfl-mei-discussion
12 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies book discussion: Offensive Cyber Operations: Understanding Intangible Warfare, with author Daniel Moore https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
1 p.m. — The Hill online event: “National Security At The Speed Of Sound: Hypersonics in American Defense,” with Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ); Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Mark Lewis, director of the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute; Kelly Stephani, mechanical science and engineering associate professor in the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; and John Otto, senior director of advanced hypersonic weapons at Raytheon Missiles and Defense https://thehill.com/events/3668647-national-security-at-the-speed-of-sound
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “Is Iran on the Brink?” with Jason Rezaian, Iranian-American journalist and writer at Washington Post Global Opinions; Arash Azizi, adjunct instructor, New York University; and Yeganeh Rezaian, senior researcher, Committee to Protect Journalists https://www.csis.org/events/iran-brink
2:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur to the Pentagon
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19
7:45 a.m 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme “Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict,” with Navy Vice Adm. Carl Chebi, commander, Naval Air Systems Command https://www.ndia.org
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “How will the U.S. Navy navigate an uncertain security environment?” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-will-the-us-navy-navigate
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “The Freedom Agenda and America’s Future,” with former Vice President Mike Pence https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/event/the-freedom-agenda
11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “From The Boardroom to The Battlefield: Operationalizing AI/ML (artificial intelligence/machine learning),” with Gregory Little, deputy comptroller for enterprise data and business performance in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary; Patrick McCartney, lead of the Air Force Futures’s AI Cross Functional Team; Alexander O’Toole, engineering lead at the Defense Department; Kristin Saling, director Army Human Resources Command’s Innovation Cell; Brett Vaughan, chief AI officer at the Navy; and Brandi Vincent, reporter at DefenseScoop https://afceadc.swoogo.com/aiml2022
12:30 p.m. — Axios virtual event: “Cybersecurity Landscape Ahead of the Midterms,” with former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX); Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser for homeland security, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Sam Sabin, Axios cybersecurity reporter; Alayna Treene, Axios congressional reporter; and Charley Snyder, head of cybersecurity policy, Google https://cybersecuritylandscape.splashthat.com
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 20
7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme “Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict,” with Brad Cardwell, program manager at the Missile Defense Agency. Register at https://www.ndia.org
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion: “China after Mao: The Rise of a Superpower,” with author Frank Dikotter, chair professor of humanities at the University of Hong Kong https://www.hudson.org/events/2151-china-after-mao
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “How the latest women-led protests in Iran might shape the country’s trajectory,” with Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran; Golnaz Esfandiari, senior correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Nader Hashemi, director of the University of Denver’s Center for Middle East Studies; and Assal Rad, research director at the National Iranian American Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 21
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Transatlantic Relations,” focusing on the war in Ukraine and foreign policy priorities,” with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna https://www.csis.org/events/discussing-transatlantic-relations
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking Monday at an event at Stanford University
