WHO KILLED DUGIN’S DAUGHTER? The weekend car bombing in Moscow that killed 29-year-old Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, has prompted the Kremlin to quickly blame Ukraine’s secret services and Ukraine to brace for missile strikes against its capital Kyiv.
Ukraine has denied any involvement in the attack, in which Dugina was killed when a remotely-controlled bomb blew apart her SUV after she left an event on the outskirts of Moscow Saturday night. Many suspect her father, an ardent supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expansionist ambitions, may have been the intended target, but despite the Russian allegations, the forces behind the attack and their motives remain unclear.
“I have no doubt that the Russians will investigate this. I also have no doubt that the Russians will put forward certain conclusions,” said spokesman Ned Price at the State Department. “All I can say from here is that Ukraine has denied any involvement, and for our part, we condemn the intentional targeting of civilians anywhere.”
“No matter who is behind it, Putin’s taking advantage of it,” said Beth Sanner, a former deputy director of national intelligence, on CNN. “Doesn’t even matter who did it because the narrative has been set.”
UKRAINE’S WINTER WAR MIGHT CAST PUTIN IN ROLE OF DEFEATED NAPOLEON
US URGES AMERICANS TO LEAVE: The U.S. says it has intelligence suggesting Russia plans to step up attacks on civilian infrastructure and government facilities in Ukraine, prompting an evacuation warning from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.
“The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so,” the security alert warns. “Russian strikes in Ukraine pose a continued threat to civilians and civilian infrastructure … If you hear a loud explosion or if sirens are activated, immediately seek cover.”
Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that on its independence day, Russia might try to “humiliate” Ukraine and “spread despair.”
“We should be aware that this week Russia may try to do something particularly nasty, something particularly cruel,” Zelensky said. “Such is our enemy.”
UKRAINIAN CITIES CANCEL INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENTS FEARING ‘PARTICULARLY UGLY’ ATTACKS
UKRAINE’S BATTLEFIELD LOSSES: While Ukraine’s Defense Ministry provides regular updates of the losses it claims to have inflicted on enemy forces — including allegedly killing more than 45,000 Russian soldiers — it says almost nothing about its own casualty figures.
But at a veteran’s event, Ukraine’s military chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, let slip that the number of Ukrainian war dead is approaching 9,000.
Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine’s children need to be taken care of because “their father went to the front line and, perhaps, is one of those almost 9,000 heroes who died,” according to the Associated Press.
UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES CHIEF SAYS 9,000 SOLDIERS KILLED IN WAR WITH RUSSIA: REPORT
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HAPPENING TODAY: Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) holds a news conference in Boston to discuss his recent visit to Taiwan, South Korea, Cambodia, and the Philippines. Markey met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and then was joined by a small congressional delegation for meetings with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and with newly-elected Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. The 11 a.m. event will be streamed on Markey’s Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube pages.
STRANGELY QUIET: The U.S. and South Korea are now conducting the largest military exercises in five years, a formerly annual event that in years past would invariably provoke heated denunciations from Pyongyang.
The massive field exercise, dubbed Ulchi Freedom Shield, involves tens of thousands of troops and is billed by the U.S. as a purely defensive drill aimed at keeping U.S. and South Korea troops ready in the event of an invasion or attack from the North.
But a review of the North Korea media by the monitoring site KCNAWatch has yet to show any of the usual bellicose and bombastic statements that usually emanate from North Korean officials.
But the joint U.S.-South Korean exercises run through the end of the month, so stay tuned.
US AND SOUTH KOREA BEGIN JOINT MILITARY DRILLS AS NORTH KOREAN THREAT GROWS
FORMER CENTCOM COMMANDERS AGREE, US NOT SAFER: The previous two commanders of the U.S. Central Command have issued what amounts to a public rebuke of President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan a year ago, paving the way for a Taliban takeover.
“I just don’t buy the idea that we had to pull everybody out,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who led the Central Command from 2016-2019, told Voice of America during a joint interview with his successor, retired Gen. Frank McKenzie.
“I don’t think we’re more stable or more safe. I think Afghanistan is more unstable, and as a result, that this region is more unstable,” he said, telling VOA he believed a “forever war” political narrative “overtook smart, strategic decision-making” in Washington.
“I do not believe we are safer as a result of our withdrawal from Afghanistan,” said McKenzie, who oversaw the withdrawal. He called the 2020 Doha agreement, negotiated during the Trump administration, the “defeat mechanism” for the military campaign, but argued stability could have been maintained with a small U.S. military footprint.
“At 2,500, we would have kept aircraft at Bagram and at HKIA [Hamid Karzai International Airport], and we have kept a contractor base to support that,” McKenzie told VOA.
A full transcript of the interview can be found here.
NAVY OFFERING BIGGER BONUSES: With all the military services finding it difficult to attract new recruits, the Navy is upping its incentive bonuses in an effort to boost its numbers before the end of the fiscal year.
Both future sailors and prior service members will be eligible for enhanced enlistment bonuses and student loan repayments that, when combined, could amount to as much as $115,000.
“The maximum current enlistment bonus is $50,000, and the maximum loan repayment is $65,000,” said Rear Adm. Lex Walker, commander of Navy Recruiting Command, in a statement. “They are not mutually exclusive, so if a future sailor maximizes both, that adds up to a life-altering $115,000, and the opportunity to serve in the world’s finest Navy.”
To qualify, the new recruits have to ship out this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, and they have to enter active duty in pay grade E-4 or below.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian armed forces chief says 9,000 soldiers killed in war with Russia: Report
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian cities cancel Independence Day events fearing ‘particularly ugly’ attacks
Washington Examiner: US and South Korea begin joint military drills as North Korean threat grows
Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s winter war might cast Putin in role of defeated Napoleon
Washington Examiner: DOD spurns DC Mayor Bowser’s second plea for National Guard help with migrants
Washington Examiner: 300-plus classified documents found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago: Report
Washington Examiner: Opinion: John Bolton Addressing the Mar-a-Lago affidavit challenge
VOA: Former CENTCOM Commanders Say the US Not Safer Following Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Washington Times: China Ramps Up Pressure On Taiwan After Controversial U.S. Visits
AP: Ukraine: 9,000 of its troops killed since Russia began war
AP: Six months on, Ukraine fights war, faces painful aftermath
Wall Street Journal: Strikes in Crimea Disrupt Russia’s Broader Strategy
Defense News: Delayed Kamikaze Drone For Ukraine On Track For Next Month: Pentagon
AP: Russia blames Ukraine for nationalist’s car bombing death
AP: Liberty Medal to be awarded to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy
Popular Mechanics: The Navy Wants To Get Rid Of 39 Ships In 2023, Which Could Give China’s Fleet A Leg Up
Defense News: How Far Has The U.S. Navy Come Since The McCain, Fitzgerald Collisions?
Air Force Magazine: Airplane-Makers Win Contracts as Part of Next-Gen Engine Prototyping Phase
Air Force Magazine: US Includes ScanEagle ISR Drones in Ukraine’s Latest Aid Package
Air Force Magazine: Strategy & Policy: The Chinese-Russian Axis After Ukraine
Military.com: Austin Returns to Pentagon After Kicking Second COVID-19 Infection
Task & Purpose: Marines Are Using Virtual Reality Pugil Sticks To Recruit The Next Generation
Breaking Defense: DARPA Space-BACN in the Pan, Startup SpaceLink Eyes Potential for More DOD Links
The Drive: Do These Models Provide a Glimpse of China’s Future H-20 Bomber?
19fortyfive.com: China’s New H-20 Stealth Bomber Should Make Air Force Generals Sweat
Long War Journal: Analysis: Thirty hour long hotel siege emblematic of Somalia’s remaining security challenges
19fortyfive.com: Russia Claims Su-57 Stealth Fighter Have Been Used ‘Brilliantly’ in Ukraine, but Evidence Is Scarce
19fortyfive.com: Just How Close Is B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber to Flying?
Marine Corps Times: Top Enlisted Marine Gets An Official Home At Historic DC Barracks
War on the Rocks: Strengthening The Black Sea Grain Agreement Short Of War
The Cipher Brief: What’s Over the Horizon
The Cipher Brief: IT Modernization in the IC
Calendar
TUESDAY | AUGUST 23
7:50 a.m. — Second Summit of the Crimea Platform, with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://crimea-platform.org/en
9 a.m. — The Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Defense Intelligence Agency CIO Doug Cossa on “JWICS (Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System) modernization, encryption and Zero Trust on both classified and unclassified networks https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation-with-doug-cossa/
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “One Year Later: Reflecting on America’s Departure from Afghanistan,” with Elliot Ackerman, writer at the Atlantic and author of The Fifth Act: America’s End in Afghanistan; former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Navy Adm. James Stavridis, vice chair of global affairs and managing director of the Carlyle Group; M. Lyla Kohistany, president and co-founder of PROMOTE and Nilofar Sakhi, director of policy and diplomacy at McColm & Company https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/reflecting-on-americas-departure-from-afghanistan/
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Army Counter-Drone Efforts,” with Maj. Gen. Sean Gainey, director, Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office and director of fires in the office of the deputy Army chief of staff for operations. Register at https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/USA-Noon-Report
4 p.m. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China,” with co-author Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and former special assistant to the Defense secretary for strategic planning; co-author Michael Beckley, associate professor of political science at Tufts University and visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; and Jude Blanchette, CSIS chair in China studies https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-danger-zone-coming-conflict-china
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 24
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club seventh annual Army Summit with Army Undersecretary and Chief Management Officer Gabe Camarillo https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2022-army-forum/
10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program virtual discussion: “Ripples of War: Six Months Since Russia’s Invasion into Ukraine,” with Andrian Prokip, director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future’s Energy Program; Bruce Jentleson, professor of political science at Duke University; Jill Dougherty, former foreign affairs correspondent at CNN; Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program; and William Pomeranz, director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ripples-war-six-months
10 a.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace virtual Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, program executive officer, strategic submarines https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association discussion with Japan Air Self Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Hiroyuki Sugai, defense and air attache at the Embassy of Japan in the U.S. RSVP at [email protected]
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Unpacking the New U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa,” with Joseph Sany, vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace Africa Center; and Zainab Usman, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Africa Program https://www.csis.org/events/unpacking-new-us-strategy
10 a.m. 1957 E Street N.W. — George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute and Aerospace’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy discussion: “After the Kinetic Energy Anti-Satellite Moratorium: What Next?” with Chirag Parikh, executive secretary of the National Space Council https://calendar.gwu.edu/after-ke-asat-moratorium-what-next
1:00 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person event: “The Future of Army Vertical Lift,” with Maj. Gen. Walter Rugen, director, Future Vertical Lift Cross Functional Team, U.S. Army Futures Command; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/future-army-vertical-lift
THURSDAY | AUGUST 25
11 a.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual second annual Space Intelligence Forum discussion,” with Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence at U.S. Space Command https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2nd-annual-space-intelligence-forum/
2 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Implementation of the Intelligence Community’s (IC) Commercial Space Strategy,” with Dave Gauthier, director of commercial and business operations at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Pete Muend, director of the National Reconnaissance Office’s Commercial Systems Program Office; and Theresa Hitchens, space and Air Force reporter at Breaking Defense https://www.insaonline.org/event
5:15 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Navigating the Navy’s Future,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Brent Sadler, senior research fellow, Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/navigating-the-navys-future
FRIDAY | AUGUST 26
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “The U.S. Marine Corps, the National Defense Strategy, and the future of expeditionary warfare,” with retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, member of the U.S. Naval Academy’s Board of Visitors; Michael O’Hanlon, director of research for the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program; and Melanie Sisson, fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-us-marine-corps
11 a.m. — National Press Club virtual discussion: “One Year Since The Fall of Kabul,” with Zahra Joya, founder of Rukhshana Media; Nazira Karimi, journalist, television presenter, author and entrepreneur; Mustafa Kazemi, veteran war correspondent; Rebecca Blumenstein, deputy managing editor of the New York Times; and Elizabeth Hagedorn, State Department correspondent at Al-Monitor https://www.press.org/events/one-year-fall-kabu
12 p.m. — American Society of International Law and the American Red Cross virtual book discussion: “The Right to Privacy during Armed Conflict,” with co-editor Asaf Lubin, professor at Indiana University; and co-editor Russell Buchan, professor at the University of Sheffield https://www.asil.org/event/right-privacy-during-armed-conflict
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The Doha agreement, and the negotiations associated with that, were the defeat mechanism for this campaign. I believe that since the Afghan government was largely excluded from those negotiations, and the fact that we ultimately did not proceed along those negotiations on a path of conditionality, where both the Taliban actually had to deliver.”
Former U.S. Central Commander, retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, on the root cause for the fall of the U.S.-backed Afghan government.
