Swing-state general election polls show a troubling trend for President Trump: Older Americans prefer Joe Biden over the president, a stark reversal from 2016 that, if the trend holds, could give Biden an edge in November.
An April Quinnipiac poll of registered Florida voters found that of those age 65 and older, Biden had support from 52% and Trump had support from 42%, while Biden leads Trump among all age groups by 4 points. In 2016, exit polls found Trump won the age group in Florida by 17 points.
In Wisconsin, a Marquette University Law School poll from early May found Biden ahead of Trump by 3 points among all age groups and 18 points ahead of Trump among voters aged 60 and up. Trump won Wisconsin voters age 65 and up by 1 point and voters ages 45 to 64 by 15 points, exit polls found.
A pair of April Fox News polls was less specific with age groups but similarly found that Biden led with baby boomers in Pennsylvania by 7 points and in Michigan by 18 points, while Biden led among all voters in the states by 8% in each state.
The reasons why older voters are turning away from the president, though, is up for debate.
Some argue that the coronavirus crisis has damaged Trump.
“Trump has suffered a double whammy with seniors from the coronavirus crisis, both in terms of a dislike for his personal demeanor and disapproval of his policy priorities,” Democratic strategist Geoff Garin told the New York Times. “If there’s a durable change with older voters, it could well cost Trump the election.”
Several data points boost that argument.
National polls from the Economist/YouGov found that Trump’s net approval rating for his handling of the coronavirus crisis (the percentage who approved minus the percentage who disapproved) among voters aged 65 and up was plus-9% in March but fell to plus-4% in May.
A Morning Consult national tracking poll showed a similar trend. Trump’s net approval for his handling of the coronavirus crisis among seniors peaked at plus-19% on March 29. On April 19, it was 1 point below zero.
Several swing-state polls find higher rates of disapproval in Trump’s coronavirus response in older age groups than in younger age groups.
But other data points paint a more complicated picture. In the March and May Economist/YouGov polls, head-to-head matchup questions showed Trump 4 percentage points behind Biden among all voters in both polls, but that he increased his lead among seniors from 1 percentage point to 9 percentage points, refuting the idea that Trump is losing support in matchups against Biden due to seniors losing confidence in his handling of the coronavirus crisis.
Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson noted that Trump’s approval rating among seniors was in trouble before the coronavirus pandemic drastically changed society. A February national Quinnipiac poll found that 42% of seniors 65 and up approved of Trump’s job performance, while 54% disapproved.
A FiveThirtyEight analysis cautioned that poll data on different age groups have smaller sample sizes and larger margins of error and that because the polls are measuring registered voters rather than likely voters, Democrats are likely to poll better.
Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale called the idea that Trump is struggling a “false narrative being pushed by the Left,” arguing that campaign polls show support from seniors because they “care about who can restore the economy, who will stand up to China, who will put America first in every decision. They care about looking after veterans and protecting Social Security and Medicare.”
While Trump’s campaign projects confidence in his appeal with older voters, some moves from the White House suggest that he is worried about the demographic. In an executive order, he declared the month of May “Older Americans Month.”
The Biden campaign has celebrated and flaunted its edge in recent matchup polls.
“We have seen recent polling that has the vice president running 15 percentage points better with seniors than Democrats did in 2016,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a Friday presentation to reporters.
But the polls show some worries for Biden among that demographic, too. In the May Economist/YouGov poll, 57% of 65+ voters said that they were “uneasy” rather than “confident” in Biden’s ability to deal with the coronavirus outbreak wisely, and 56% said that they were uneasy about him handling an economic recession.
