Putin, in control over Syria, orders humanitarian pause in bombings

PUTIN’S PAUSE: With the failure of a U.N. call for a 30-day ceasefire in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a daily five-hour pause in the fighting to give time for civilians to evacuate before the bombs and shells start falling again in eastern Ghouta. The pause, which  has just ended for today, seemed to mostly hold, but few people appear to be taking advantage of a so-called humanitarian corridor to leave the beleaguered area. That’s probably because in the past, evacuation routes have been shelled and didn’t offer any real guarantee of safe passage. But the fact that the pause largely held, notwithstanding some sporadic shelling, shows it’s Putin, not his client Bashar Assad, who is calling the shots in Syria.

The U.S. continues to condemn the Russian-backed Syrian offensive against the Damascus suburb of Ghouta, which since last week has killed nearly 500 people and wounded another 1,500, according to humanitarian monitoring groups. At the Pentagon yesterday, a spokesman confirmed the U.S. military remains focused on fighting the Islamic State in the eastern part of the country, and has no role in implementing the ceasefire or enforcing “deconfliction” zones designated by Russia.  

ASSAD ‘ON NOTICE’: The U.S. has at various times in recent months hinted that it could punish the Assad government for its alleged use of chemical weapons with another one-time military strike like the one last April. But I’m told that, for now, there is no active planning to follow through on the veiled threat, most recently repeated by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

“I think that the president put the Assad regime on notice some time ago,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters. “We’re continuing to echo that message.” Sanders said the president never telegraphs what military action might be under consideration. “In terms of any specific actions … I’m not going to broadcast what we may or may not do,” Sanders said.

NORTH KOREAN CONNECTION? Meanwhile the New York Times says it’s gotten a look at an unpublished U.N. report that concludes North Korea has been shipping the raw materials and equipment for making chemical weapons to Syria. The potential chemical weapons “components” include acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers, according to a panel of U.N. experts.

The report says North Korean missile technicians have also been spotted working at known chemical weapons and missile facilities inside Syria, and that the supplies were sent to Syria in at least 40 shipments from North Korea between 2012 and 2017, which also included prohibited ballistic missile parts, according to the Times.

A QUESTION OF WHEN, NOT IF: The Pentagon says the annual spring military exercises with South Korea and Japan will be staged this year sometime after the Paralympics in Seoul, which end late next month. It’s just a matter of timing. The Pentagon refuses to say the military drills were “delayed” or “postponed,” preferring the term “deconflicted” with the Olympic Games, at the request of South Korea. Spokesman Col. Rob Manning said while dates for the massive Foal Eagle exercise would be “an alliance decision,” he declined to say if exercises might be scaled back in anyway as a nod to the slight thaw in North-South relations fostered by the just-completed Olympics.

TRUMP ON TALKS: ‘WE’LL SEE’: Speaking to a gathering of the nation’s governors yesterday, President Trump gave his standard response to a difficult question, in this case about talking to North Korea about giving up its nuclear weapons. “We’ll see what happens. That’s my attitude: We’ll see what happens. But something has to be done,” Trump said. “They want to talk. And we want to talk also, only under the right conditions. Otherwise, we’re not talking.”

TRUMP ON CHINA’S XI: If the president was at all bothered by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s power grab, setting himself to be president-for-life, Trump didn’t give any hint of it yesterday. “I think that President Xi is unique. He’s helping us with North Korea,” Trump told the governors. “China has been good, but they haven’t been great. China has really done more, probably, than they’ve ever done because of my relationship.”

At the same time Trump chastised Russia for “behaving badly” because he said “Russia is sending in what China is taking out,” undercutting sanctions by “sending a lot of stuff in,” as China cuts exports to its nuclear neighbor.

ENVOY RETIRING: The United States’ special envoy for North Korea Joseph Yun is retiring, leaving his diplomatic post at the end of this week at a time when the U.S. still does not have an ambassador to South Korea. “This is my own personal decision,” the 63-year-old Yun told The Washington Post. “Secretary Tillerson has told me he appreciates my service and did not want me to go, but he accepts it reluctantly.”

In the absence of an ambassador to Seoul, Yun was the point man on North Korea and had engaged in shuttle diplomacy between the capitals of North and South Korea. It was Yun who accompanied the comatose Otto Warmbier on a medical evacuation flight out of Pyongyang last year. The 22-year-old University of Virginia student died six days later.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY — DUELING ARMED SERVICES HEARINGS: This morning at 9:30 the Senate Armed Services Committee will hear testimony on cybersecurity from Adm. Mike Rogers, the head of U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency. Meanwhile, Gen. Joseph Votel, commander of U.S. Central Command, will be on the other side of the Hill at the House Armed Services Committee to testify about defense challenges in the Middle East.

WHAT SCARES JAMES INHOFE? In this week’s Washington Examiner magazine, our Travis Tritten sits down with Sen. James Inhofe, who has been presiding over the Armed Services Committee as Sen. John McCain undergoes cancer treatment in Arizona. In the interview, Inhofe reflects on the “good old days” of the Cold War, suggests acquisition reform may finally be working, and makes the case for more money for missile defense.

“I’ve often referred to the good old days of the Cold War because I really believe that where we had two superpowers, and we knew what they had, they knew what we had, and mutual shared destruction meant something. I never thought I’d call the Cold War the good old days, but I do now because now rogue nations, not necessarily just North Korea because you’re talking about Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Syria, so many other countries, it doesn’t take a giant country to have a weapon that can blow up an American city. And so, that’s the new threat that’s out there that scares me the most,” Inhofe said. Read the full interview here.

MCCAIN, WICKER PLAN TO FIX THE NAVY: A Senate-confirmed senior civilian should be put in charge of the Navy’s ship maintenance, McCain and Sen. Roger Wicker say. The new position is part of legislation the duo released on Monday aimed at fixing the Navy’s readiness issues following deadly at-sea collisions and aircraft crashes last year. “The ship collisions, including the USS Fitzgerald and USS McCain, degraded the capabilities of our fleet, cost hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, and – most importantly – took precious lives. The status quo is unacceptable,” McCain said in a statement. “Congress must provide the funding and oversight required to keep our military safe in peace and effective in combat.”

The legislation also would give the Navy more time and flexibility to spend maintenance funds, requiring more realistic projections of sailors’ workloads and ship maintenance, and set minimum at-sea and simulator-based training requirements to qualify for critical ship positions. McCain, the Senate Armed Services chairman, said he would work with Wicker, chairman of the Armed Services’ seapower subcommittee, to put the legislation into the upcoming National Defense Authorization Act.

“Overextended and undermanned ships, overworked crews, fewer officers with naval mastery, and confusing chains of command have contributed to a decline in our naval power. My legislation – based on the Navy’s own recommendations – is specifically designed to address these and other challenges,” Wicker said.

EAST COAST MISSILE SITE COMPETITION: The Trump administration may be close to a decision on whether to create a new East Coast missile interceptor site, and the House’s New York delegation is again pitching Fort Drum as the best location in a letter released Monday. “An East Coast missile defense site located at Fort Drum would expand the battlespace, provide greater decision time, protect the entire continental United States, and increase the accuracy and effectiveness of our missile defense strategy,” the group of lawmakers led by Rep. Elise Stefanik wrote in a letter to Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, director of the Missile Defense Agency.

Congress has pushed the additional site for years, and now lawmakers anticipate the administration’s soon-to-be-released Ballistic Missile Defense Review will finally decide whether the interceptor site will be built at all. The only U.S. ground-based missile interceptors are located on the West Coast at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. At the behest of Congress, the Missile Defense Agency has been surveying Fort Drum and two other potential sites, including Camp Ravenna Joint Military Training Center in northeastern Ohio and Fort Custer Training Center in Michigan. Both the Ohio and Michigan delegations have been pushing their own states.

“Fort Custer benefits from excellent existing infrastructure, including efficient access to two major interstate highways and a nearby 10,000-foot runway. The fields at Fort Custer are shovel ready and it is our understanding the [site] can be constructed at the lowest cost with the least environmental impact,” Sens. Gary Peters and Debbie Stabenow as well as 13 House members wrote to Greaves in December.

NO GUN REVIEW, YET: It’s too soon to say if Trump’s weekend statement that he plans to “look into” the policy that bars most military personnel from packing heat while working at military bases and other DoD facilities was just a random rumination or a prelude to a presidential directive. But the Pentagon says so far it has no orders to review its policy on guns in the workplace that was reviewed and revised in 2016 after a fatal shooting at two military facilities in Chattanooga, Tenn., the year before.

“We have not received any new guidance,” said Lt. Col. Jamie Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. “Typically, only those engaged in law enforcement-related duties carry firearms.” Davis told me that military commanders can grant permission for individuals to carry a privately-owned firearm for personal protection on a case-by-case basis.

HURRICANE RESPONSE SUBPOENA: Rep. Elijah Cummings, the top Democrat on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said he has run out of patience with the Defense Department and wants the committee’s Republican chairman to back a subpoena for documents on hurricane relief operations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands last year. The Defense Department’s “response to our committee’s bipartisan request has been inadequate,” Cummings wrote on Monday to Rep. Trey Gowdy, the chairman. “To date, DOD has made only one production, on Dec. 19, 2017, and this production included only a few pages of email communications, which are essential for the Committee to conduct a thorough and credible investigation.”

The committee opened a review in October of the response to hurricanes Irma and Maria, which barreled into the territories back to back in September. “If you decide not to issue this subpoena yourself, then I ask you to place this matter on the agenda for our next regularly scheduled business meeting so all committee members will have the opportunity to vote on a motion to subpoena these documents,” Cummings wrote. The military deployed troops, ships and aircraft to the islands in the aftermath. But some critics charged the White House was too slow to react and request additional forces. Days into the disaster, the Defense Department sent a three-star Army general to Puerto Rico to lead recovery efforts, and by early October there were 10,000 U.S. troops there.

FIGHTING PROPAGANDA: The Trump administration will launch a $40 million program to beat back overseas propaganda, including from Russia, in an effort run by the Pentagon and State Department, U.S. diplomats announced Monday.

The money will finance various initiatives from the Global Engagement Center, a State Department entity established by Congress in 2016 as part of a defense authorization law. The program was developed in response to Russian interference in the 2016 elections, as well as the kind of cyber-driven jihad that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria made famous.

“This funding is critical to ensuring that we continue an aggressive response to malign influence and disinformation and that we can leverage deeper partnerships with our allies, Silicon Valley, and other partners in this fight,” said Steve Goldstein, the undersecretary of state for public diplomacy. “It is not merely a defensive posture that we should take, we also need to be on the offensive.”

NEW CLIMATE CHANGE WARNING: Over the coming century, the military’s major transportation, command and control, intelligence, and deployment hubs around the world may be disrupted by sea level rise and storm surge, according to a new report published by the Center for Climate and Security. The panel of retired general and flag officers who wrote the second edition of “Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Military’s Mission” warn that the disruptions threaten greater costs, delays and shortfalls in military assets at critical moments.

“This report update asks the questions: ‘How bad could it be, could we operate through that, and if not … then what?’ The answer is that climate change is already presenting significant risks to military infrastructure, will continue to do so throughout this century, and if we don’t make some changes, will make the military’s job much harder,” said retired Air Force Gen. Ronald Keys, a member of the panel. The officers recommend the Pentagon work climate change scenarios into regular planning and wargaming, as well as invest in improving climate data and analysis.

THE RUNDOWN

War on the Rocks: Salvaging Trump’s Legacy in Europe: Fixing NATO Burden-Sharing

The Hill: First transgender recruit signs contract to join military

Washington Post: Russian state media just mixed up Syrian war footage with a video-game clip

Task and Purpose: America Will Never Win The War In Afghanistan

Reuters: Saudi reshuffles top military posts, adds a woman deputy minister

USNI News: Hearings Delayed for Officers Accused of Negligence in Fitzgerald, McCain Collisions

Defense One: Russia Claims It Now Has Lasers To Shoot Satellites

New York Times: Erdogan Tells a Weeping Girl, 6, She’d Receive Honors if Martyred

Defense News: Raj Shah exits DIUx

Foreign Policy: China’s Stability Myth Is Dead

Breaking Defense: No, Trump Nuke Strategy Doesn’t Doom Planet: DUSD Policy

Business Insider: Russian mercenaries reportedly want revenge after getting whooped by US forces in Syria

Calendar

TUESDAY | FEB. 27

7 a.m. 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy. AFCEA Washington DC Chapter: 8th Annual Cybersecurity Technology Summit with Rep. Mike McCaul and Marianne Bailey, Deputy National Manager, National Security Agency. afceachapters.org

8 a.m. 7525 Colshire Dr. Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Assurance. ndia.org

9:30 a.m.  Hart 216. Hearing on United States Cyber Command with Adm. Mike Rogers, commander of U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Terrorism and Iran: Defense Challenges in the Middle East with Gen. Joseph Votel, commander of U.S. Central Command. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The New U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: Implications for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Security. hudson.org

10:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Nuclear Risks in Northeast Asia. carnegieendowment.org

1:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis welcomes Montenegro’s  Defense Minister Predreg Boskovic to the Pentagon.

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Women’s Role in Countering Terrorism. Foreignaffairs.house.gov

2:30 p.m. Rayburn 2358-C. Congressional Progressive Caucus Peace and Security Task Force and the House Liberty Caucus ad-hoc hearing on the Authorization for Use of Military Force. Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, USA, Ret.; Rita Siemion, Human Rights First; and Michael McPhearson, Veterans For Peace testify.

5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion of “The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam” with author Max Boot. csis.org

WEDNESDAY | FEB. 28

7 a.m. AUSA Air & Missile Defense Hot Topic Symposium with Gen. John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command. ausa.org

8 a.m. 7525 Colshire Dr. Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Assurance. ndia.org

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Strategic National Security Space: FY19 Budget Forum with Reps. Mike Rogers, Jim Cooper, Doug Lamborn, and Dutch Ruppersberger; as well as Maj. Gen. David Thompson, Special Assistant to the Commander at Air Force Space Command, and William LaPlante, Senior Vice President at the MITRE Corporation. csis.org

11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs with Sen. Chris Coons and Walter Russell Mead. hudson.org

12 noon. 529 14th St. NW. Iran Uprising: Call for Regime Change, U.S. Policy Options. press.org

12 noon. Iran’s Formidable Forces in Iraq and Syria with remarks by Rep. Adam Kinzinger, and an expert conversation with Ambassador Ryan Crocker. defenddemocracy.org

2 p.m. 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy. 29th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition with Mark Mitchell, acting assistant defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict. ndia.org

THURSDAY | MARCH 1

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. DARPA Director Steven Walker at the Defense Writers Group Breakfast.

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Return of Global Russia with Sen. Mark Warner. carnegieendowment.org

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Restoring Trust in Euro-Atlantic Relations: A Conversation with OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger. wilsoncenter.org

1 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A conversation with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. heritage.org

1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Assessing the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review with John Rood, undersecretary of Defense for Policy, and Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. csis.org

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Afghanistan: Assessing Progress and Prospects for Regional Connectivity with Mohammad Qayoumi, chief advisor on Infrastructure to President Ashraf Ghani. atlanticcouncil.org

FRIDAY | MARCH 2

8 a.m. 300 First St. SE. The Mitchell Space Breakfast Series with Maj. Gen. Joseph Guastella, Director of Integrated Air, Space, Cyberspace, and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Operations, at Air Force Space Command. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Reuniting Ukraine through International Cooperation: Options in Donbas with Amb. Kurt Volker, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. hudson.org

MONDAY | MARCH 5

12 noon. Senate Visitor Center 201. Ending the North Korea standoff. defensepriorities.org

TUESDAY | MARCH 6

6 a.m. 920 Jones Branch Dr. Cyber-Enabled Emerging Technologies Symposium with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force Vice Chief of Staff, and Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, U.S. Cyber Command Deputy Commander.

8 a.m. 1315 K St. NW. McAleese/Credit Suisse 2019 “Defense Programs” Conference with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson; Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Sen. Roger Wicker; Rep. Adam Smith; Gen. Glenn Walters, assistant Marine Corps commandant; and others. mcaleese.com

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
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“I think that President Xi is unique. He’s helping us with North Korea. … China has really done more, probably, than they’ve ever done because of my relationship.”
President Trump, addressing a gathering of the nation’s governors at the White House.
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