Parental outrage, President Joe Biden’s plummeting approval ratings, and economic uncertainty have all shaped Virginia’s gubernatorial contest in its turbulent final weeks, during which Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin have polled dead even in a state where Republicans have not won an election for statewide office since 2009.
McAuliffe has worked all year to nationalize the race and paint Youngkin as part of a broader GOP that has become too radical to govern. That strategy could be backfiring in the last stretch of the race, as the national outlook for the Democratic Party has worsened since McAuliffe began that approach.
Youngkin has pursued a nearly opposite path, remaining focused almost exclusively on Virginia-specific issues and eschewing the stars of his party while McAuliffe campaigns across the state alongside big-name Democrats.
Here are five of the biggest issues driving the race.
SCHOOLS
Perhaps no other issue animated Virginian voters more intensely than education, which first took center stage in the spring and summer when parents in affluent Loudoun County started pushing back on what they said were plans to teach critical race theory.
Parents also fought bitterly over a controversial transgender policy in Loudoun County schools as well as COVID-19 restrictions in Virginia classrooms.
Polling suggests Youngkin’s laser focus on education in the final stretch of the race has dissolved the healthy lead McAuliffe enjoyed in polls as recently as early October.
Youngkin has put McAuliffe on defense on the issue since late September, when the former Democratic governor commented during a gubernatorial debate that parents should not tell schools what they should teach.
The Youngkin campaign quickly cut an ad featuring the comment and put significant resources behind it, forcing Youngkin later to drop a spot in which he claimed Youngkin had taken his words about parents “out of context.”
Youngkin has successfully transformed the fight over how race should be taught in schools, among other recent education battles, from culture war flashpoints to broader discussions about how much input parents deserve when it comes to public schooling.
His focus on the issue could provide a road map for Republicans in the midterm elections who are looking to claw back support among suburban voters who drifted away from the party during the Trump years.
TRUMP
McAuliffe has spent much of the race attempting to tie Youngkin to former President Donald Trump, even though Youngkin has few obvious Trump ties.
The former president endorsed Youngkin earlier this year but has not appeared on his behalf. Youngkin has avoided mere mentions of Trump in the final days of the race, and he has specifically rebutted Trump’s claims of a stolen election in 2020.
Even so, McAuliffe has worked to frame Youngkin as a Trump acolyte who is too extreme to be trusted with the governorship.
Biden amplified that message earlier this week when he campaigned alongside McAuliffe in Virginia and repeatedly invoked Trump, as well as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, while taking few direct swipes at Youngkin.
CRIME
Voters across the country are increasingly concerned with public safety amid a nationwide rise in crime, and the Virginia race has also touched on the issue.
Youngkin has polled well among voters concerned with crime. A Fox News poll released on Thursday showed Youngkin with a 12-point advantage over McAuliffe on the question of who voters trust more to handle crime.
A state bill concerning crime in schools has also been a point of discussion in the race, particularly after a controversy in Loudoun County over an alleged cover-up of sexual assaults in schools.
Last year, Democrats passed H.B. 257, a piece of state legislation that gave school districts discretion over whether they report sexual battery and other misdemeanors to law enforcement when they occur on school grounds.
The bill has received renewed scrutiny in light of the Loudoun County incident and amid the bright spotlight on public safety and schools.
COVID-19
McAuliffe has accused Youngkin of being anti-vaccination and insufficiently serious about stopping the spread of COVID-19.
His focus on the issue initially appeared to boost his polling. However, in recent surveys, fewer voters have cited the pandemic as a top concern, and Youngkin has gained ground on the question of whether voters trust him to handle the pandemic.
Youngkin has encouraged vaccinations but has stated opposition to imposing vaccine mandates across the state.
McAuliffe’s campaign has said he would “incentivize businesses to mandate vaccines for employees” and push school districts to require vaccines for workers.
COST OF LIVING
The drop in Biden’s approval ratings has been driven in large part by rising inflation and supply chain problems that are already causing shortages ahead of the holidays, and the higher cost of living has sparked concerns among Virginia voters as well.
In the Fox News poll published on Thursday, Youngkin had an 11-point advantage with voters on the question of who they trust more on the economy.
Youngkin has stuck to an economy-and-education-focused message that has heavily promoted his business background as proof he will create more jobs in the state.
McAuliffe has pointed to the economic successes that occurred when he was governor of the state to argue he can replicate that if given another term.
Republican pollster Glen Bolger told the Washington Examiner earlier this week that data suggest increasing fears about inflation have boosted Youngkin among suburban Virginia voters.
