The Florida governor’s race might not be the most competitive in the country, but for the Republican Party, it might be the most important.
Former Gov. Charlie Crist won the Democratic primary on Tuesday night, defeating state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried by a comfortable margin. The onetime Republican governor, who now serves as a Democrat representing Florida’s 13th Congressional District, is now running to be the next Democratic governor.
It’s a revenge tour against his former party as it now sets up a race against the Republican incumbent, Gov. Ron DeSantis.
THE TAX MAN COMETH: REPUBLICANS REVIVE THE ‘TAX AND SPEND’ CHARGE AGAINST BIDEN
DeSantis is not only vying for a second term as governor in an important battleground state that has increasingly been trending Republican in competitive races. He is second only to former President Donald Trump as the likeliest GOP presidential nominee in 2024 and the hottest commodity in the party.
If DeSantis somehow loses, or even wins reelection by an unimpressive margin, it could leave Trump as the last Florida man standing in the 2024 Republican White House sweepstakes.
Either way, DeSantis is testing the theory that you can govern on a populist conservative platform in a swing state — former President Barack Obama carried Florida twice — with the same gusto as if it were a safe red state. He is already predicting “the biggest Republican turnout this state has ever seen” in November.
DeSantis only won his first term by 0.4 percentage points. That was in 2018, a wave election year for the Democrats. He also outperformed his poll numbers, as the RealClearPolitics polling average projected Democrat Andrew Gillum to be in the lead by 3.6 points. Of the last five polls included in the aggregation, DeSantis led only in the estimable Trafalgar survey.
None of this is to say that DeSantis should not be favored in what figures to be a much more favorable climate for Republicans than 2018, even with recent Democratic gains. But DeSantis is governing much more like Trump than Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan in a state he only narrowly won, taking on woke capitalism even when practiced by Disney World and taking sides on social issues from abortion to gay rights, in a state he just barely won last time around.
It is not a risk-free proposition.
Crist will appear on the statewide ballot a dozen years after Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) chased him out of the Republican Party. The ex-governor was the GOP establishment’s favorite to run for Senate in 2010 as Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) prepared to retire after a close race six years earlier. Rubio ran as the Tea Party candidate, targeting Crist’s support for Obama’s nearly $1 trillion stimulus plan.
In a year when conservative primary challengers fared well, Crist was doomed. A Quinnipiac University poll that April showed Rubio beating him 56% to 33% in the Republican primary. In March, the Florida Times-Union had Rubio trouncing Crist 60% to 26%.
Crist opted against staying in the Republican primary, believing that he could not win. Instead he bolted the party, ran as an independent, and sparked a three-way race between Rubio and the eventual Democratic nominee, Kendrick Meek. It was the first political transformation of Crist en route to his reincarnation as a liberal Democrat.
This time, Crist was a centrist. “If you want somebody on the far Right, you get Marco Rubio,” he said. “If you want someone on the far Left, you have Kendrick Meek. If you want someone who will fight for you and apply common sense, you have me.”
That’s not how it worked out in the general election. Crist did come in second, and some Democrats had urged Meek to drop out to give him a cleaner shot at Rubio. But in the end, it was Rubio with 48.9% of the vote, Crist with 29.7%, and Meek with 20.2%.
Rubio will be up for reelection this year, seeking his third term in a race against Rep. Val Demings (D-FL). That’s a separate race. But Crist will have an opportunity to once again redefine his old party, possibly even by keeping the race close. DeSantis, at present, is the only Republican who appears to have a real shot of beating Trump and would become the front-runner if the 45th president does not decide to try to also be the 47th.
Most polls show DeSantis ahead by about 8 points and hovering around 50% of the vote, usually a threshold of safety for incumbents. The RealClearPolitics polling average has him ahead by 6.2 points.
Two polls show a close race. Clarity Campaign Labs in July, in a survey sponsored by progressive groups Florida Watch and Progress Florida, showed DeSantis up 3 points with 47% of the vote to Crist’s 44%. A Susquehanna poll from a year ago also shows DeSantis up by just 3 points.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE IN THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
That’s not much for Democrats to hang their hats on, though Florida polling hasn’t always been reliable in recent years. Then again, the issues have largely come at the expense of Republicans rather than Democrats.
Nevertheless, the hanging chads state that has defined our national politics since the hard-fought 2000 presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore could once again play a large role. As Florida goes, so goes the nation?
