Midterm elections in the United States, lacking the rigmarole of a presidential contest, have typically been low on the international radar. The 2018 contest, however, has drawn renewed scrutiny as allies and competitors look for signals on long-term U.S. relations and if it is better to wait out the Trump administration or, if he will finish out his term and perhaps gain a second, the pragmatic choice is to engage with him.
Although the midterm elections are not explicitly about President Trump, through tweets, rallies, ads, and campaigning he has done what he could to keep himself in the spotlight and, in the process, make clear that the election, for all of its candidates, is largely about him.
That means that as the world watches online tickers showing states and races changing to blue or red, they are watching for rough indicators of broad, imperfect support for Trump.
[Trump: GOP will do ‘better in the House than anybody expects’]
If Republicans have a strong showing in the key races, keeping the Senate and possibly the House, that will be a clear signal of the resonance of Trump’s message and his fiery brand of politics. A strong Democratic showing would signal the opposite, that Americans are looking for something new and that Trumpism and its trappings has a good shot of rejection in 2020.
That means the results could well impact how countries look to deal with Trump’s overtures when it comes to supporting, rather than finding workarounds for, new sanctions in Iran, the credibility of talks on North Korea, or the urgency of reaching a resolution to the trade war with China.
That’s especially true because of Trump’s about-face on U.S. support for key issues in Obama-era policies, leaving uncertainty on the longevity of deals reached with one U.S. president and subject to reversal under the next.
If Trump’s prospects for strong public support look to be on the way out, then devoting time and energy to make a deal, soon to be redone under new leadership, looks less and less worthwhile compared to just waiting it out for power to change hands.
That inevitably complicates Trump’s own mandate for negotiating abroad and weakens his position, further undermining his administrations objectives.
In short, even though midterm elections are a domestic contest largely focused on domestic issues, Tuesday’s results matter for the president’s ability to pursue his foreign policy goals.
Our allies and competitors abroad recognize this and its implications for their own goals, and they’ll be watching closely as results roll in.
