Can Trump close the midterm deal?

Trump came to Texas to help Cruz, who is pulling away from his Democratic challenger in the public polling, and faltering House Republicans. Trump also helped put them in danger in the first place: the president has repelled many suburban voters who normally cast their ballots for GOP candidates; he underperformed slightly in the Lone Star State in 2016, winning 52.2 percent to Mitt Romney’s 57.2 percent and John McCain’s 55.5 percent; his job approval rating statewide fell to 39 percent in 2017, according to Gallup, though Morning Consult pegged it at 51 percent in September.

So: Is Trump doing more to help or hurt Republican candidates this fall? It’s complicated.

Trump’s double-edged sword isn’t just cutting through Texas. The president’s relatively low approval ratings have imperiled Republican incumbents across the country as well as the party’s congressional majorities, particularly in the House. The Resistance is strong among white, affluent, college-educated suburbanites, especially women.

Yet Trump has embarked on a busy campaign schedule in the final weeks before the pivotal midterm elections, which are widely seen as a referendum on his tumultuous presidency. He holds his patented “Make America Great Again” rallies up to four nights a week. He remains in high demand among candidates seeking to shore up their standing with the Republican base.

“President Trump has an unparalleled ability to energize supporters,” said Republican National Committee spokesman Steve Guest. “His rallies not only help bring in new volunteers to the Republican Party, he also mobilizes Republican support unlike anyone else.”

“Midterm elections are all about turnout, and nobody is better at turning out Republicans these days than Trump,” said Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and former communications adviser to Marco Rubio. “The president can be very helpful in red states where we need strong Republican turnout to neutralize high Democratic enthusiasm.”

The president certainly thinks so. “I don’t believe anybody’s ever had this kind of impact,” Trump boasted of the help he has given Republican candidates in an interview with the Associated Press.

Democrats say they aren’t worried. “For Republicans in swing districts, Donald Trump is an anchor, so Democrats benefit anytime voters see Congress is just filled with his yes-men,” said Jesse Ferguson, strategist and former deputy executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Donald Trump does these rallies because his ego needs adoring fans, but a lot of actually vulnerable Republicans are probably too busy ‘washing their hair’ if he came to town.”

Historically, midterm elections have not been kind to the president’s party — even less so when the president in question has an approval rating below 50 percent. Nevertheless, Republicans trying to win Democratic-held Senate seats aren’t exactly shunning Trump. The GOP seems genuinely torn over whether the president will save them or doom them come November.

“Depends upon what district or state you are running in,” said Rick Tyler, former communications director for Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign. “[Trump] will be very effective at base mobilization in red districts, but not very good at turning out white educated suburban women.”

Or if he does, he may turn them out against his own party. “Before the fight over the Kavanaugh nomination, Republican voter interest was lagging way behind Democrat voter excitement,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “The GOP bounce after the SCOTUS battle shows Trump can generate excitement from the White House. But he’s less effective campaigning on the ground. The anger at Trump rallies repels many moderate voters, especially independent women.”

It’s a delicate balance for a president more accustomed to behaving like a bull in a china shop. The situation is made all the more precarious by the fact that the path to control of the Senate may run through several states where Trump remains popular while the House majority may hinge on a critical mass of Republicans distancing themselves just enough from the White House.

“Most of the House battlegrounds are taking place in affluent suburbia, where Trump is deeply unpopular and where Democrats should pick up numerous seats,” writes National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar. “Most of the battleground Senate races are occurring in some of the Trumpiest parts of the country, where the president is still popular and red-state Democrats are still weighed down by the liberalism of the national party.”

That is one way to square a RealClearPolitics polling average that shows Democrats have a 7.6-point advantage in terms of which party voters prefer to control Congress at the same time Republicans are on the cusp of retaining, and perhaps expanding, their 51-49 Senate majority.

Democrats aren’t convinced the Senate is immune to the blue wave yet, holding out hope the close races break their way. It took until late in the cycle for Republicans to nail down Texas and Tennessee, two of the reddest states up this year. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., still leads even though Trump won his state by 42 points. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., has finally taken the lead in most recent polls over Gov. Rick Scott. The race against Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is only now becoming particularly close.

“Even in red states like Texas and Tennessee, the president’s approval rating is split down the middle, as it was in Alabama at the time of the Doug Jones win in the Senate special election,” Bannon said. “Trump’s appearance for [Republican nominee Roy] Moore there clearly didn’t help. Trump can’t change minds but he can mobilize the base. But there’s no evidence that his campaign appearances have done that. Democratic House special election candidates over-performed in the districts where the president campaigned.”

Another Democratic hope is that whatever Trump does to help Republicans in areas where he is popular also resonates to his detriment in less favorable battleground territory. Clips of Trump railing against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s sexual assault accuser may boost the challenger to Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., but probably won’t do Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., any favors.

By this theory, Trump on the trail could backfire by focusing the electorate on the president personally rather than the Democrats. Down-ballot Republicans often try to deflect these questions by eschewing personal defenses of the president and instead concentrating on the success of their shared policy agenda. Campaigning in Michigan, Donald Trump Jr. talked about the “results” versus the “Resistance.”

Using an incumbent president where he can do the most good is not unusual, especially in this type of political environment. Then President Barack Obama campaigned overwhelmingly in blue areas in the final weeks of the 2010 midterm election, in which Republicans captured the House but fell short in the Senate. In his last campaign swing, Obama visited nine states he had carried in 2008, eight of which he won by at least 10 points.

Obama was a drag on his party in both of his midterm elections. So was President Bill Clinton in 1994 and President George W. Bush in 2006, as their respective parties lost both houses of Congress. Clinton presided over the first Republican House majority in 40 years. All signs — fundraising, candidate recruitment, incumbent retirements, generic congressional ballot polling — point to Trump having the same effect, but he is trying to fight it.

Trump’s campaign stops are data-driven and for all his talk of a red wave, he has not wasted much time in blue states (though he hasn’t cut loose his prized Senate recruits in Ohio and Pennsylvania, despite their failure to gain traction against the Democratic incumbents). The RNC, White House political shop and Trump’s reelection campaign all carefully weigh his visits and believe he has been helpful to his preferred candidates in both primaries and special elections.

“He should be on the stage talking about what?” said a former National Republican Congressional Committee official when asked about whether Trump’s rally rhetoric is distracting. “He’s blasting [Nancy] Pelosi and [Chuck] Schumer. So what exactly what you like him to be up there doing? You want him to be a conventional politician who gets up there and says, ‘Well, I think that [North Dakota Senate candidate] Kevin Cramer is a wonderful congressman.’

“Guess what?” the official continued. “He conveys that by simply going, ‘Where’s Kevin? Hey Kevin, get up here. Kevin’s my guy. Everyone got it? He’s my guy.’”

While Trump’s campaign rally speeches remain freewheeling, they have become somewhat more disciplined by his standards. He mostly gives the same speech each night about the importance of electing Republicans and sending him reinforcements in Washington, with fewer asides on the news of the day and only minor variations to suit local conditions and whichever candidate for office he happens to be supporting. He has been most active in the Senate races.

Sometimes that still leaves Trump with too much room to wander. Campaigning against Tester in Montana last week, the president praised a congressman who was charged with assaulting a reporter. “Any guy that can do a body slam, he’s my kind of guy,” Trump said.

“It’s actually helpful that the cable networks are no longer broadcasting every rally nationwide, because the targeted audience is the local markets where he’s traveling,” said Conant. “When he’s in Fargo, he’s trying to turn out North Dakota Republicans — it doesn’t necessarily help to have suburban voters in Virginia watching those rallies.”

One area where some Republicans complain about Trump’s commitment to the party’s midterm goals: fundraising. While he has raised millions for Republican candidates in the 2018 cycle, he his reelection campaign is already hauling in vast sums of money even before the midterm elections take place. This unconventional approach has led to the Trump-RNC joint fundraising committees transferring $14 million more to Trump 2020 than party activities targeted at helping embattled GOP candidates on the ballot this year. Others say Trump’s periodic feuds with congressional Republicans may have at times depressed giving by the small donors who are most dedicated to the president.

Still, the main influence Trump will have on Republican electoral fortunes is through the political climate he has shaped for them. For many Republicans, it is a daunting one though Trump loyalists are hopeful.

“President Trump is building an America First economic renaissance, renegotiating historic trade deals, protecting our interests at home and abroad, and also managing to hold a record number of rallies,” said Erin Montgomery, communications director for America First Action, a pro-Trump super PAC. “No one can draw a crowd or fire up an arena quite like President Trump. His presence on the campaign trail is powerful, but our fate comes down to us — the voters. It’s up to us to get to the polls on Election Day and elect allies who will come to Washington to stand alongside the president.”

The president’s party has lost congressional seats in 18 of last 20 midterm elections, averaging a loss of 29 seats in the House, where Republicans now have a 23-seat majority.