ONE WAY OR ANOTHER: Defense Secretary Mark Esper may be coming to the end of his tenure as the civilian leader of the U.S. military, but he’s not showing any sign he’s worried about it. Esper’s been on a whirlwind travel schedule, and in recent weeks has been making the rounds of think tanks promoting his Battle Force 2045 plan to counter China and retool the U.S. military.
But reports began circulating back in June that President Trump had lost confidence in Esper after the former Army captain broke ranks with his commander in chief over Trump’s desire to invoke the Insurrection Act to use active-duty troops to quell violence in American cities.
And in recent months, Esper’s Pentagon has often seemed out of step with the White House on everything from implementing coronavirus restrictions, to the speed of troops withdrawal from Afghanistan, to the value of alliances, and that has fueled speculation that Esper will be leaving his post after the election one way or another — either because Trump has lost or because Trump will replace him.
TRUMP’S POSTELECTION ‘KILL LIST’: Axios is the latest of several news organizations to report based on unnamed officials that Trump is ready to dump Esper, along with several other national security officials.
While it’s normal for a president to reshuffle the Cabinet during a second term, two officials told Axios that Trump will “move to immediately” to fire FBI Director Christopher Wray and also expects to replace CIA Director Gina Haspel in addition to Esper.
Wray drew Trump’s ire for failing to open a formal investigation into Hunter Biden’s foreign business connections and for disputing Trump’s assertion that mail-in ballots will result in widespread voter fraud, while Haspel is described as opposing Trump’s move to declassify some documents relating to the Russia investigation that she believes would compromise “sources and methods.”
WHO’S ON THE SHORT LIST: Even if Trump wins and does fire Esper, reports have indicated that Esper plans to leave anyway and return to the corporate world. He was a lobbyist at Raytheon before being tapped to be Army Secretary in 2017.
A report in the New York Times called Esper a “dead man walking” the halls of the Pentagon and noted that Trump has belittled Esper, referring to him as “Yesper” and responding to questions about his future in August with a blunt, “I consider firing everybody.”
In September, NBC reported that Trump had talked to Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie about taking over at the Pentagon.
The New York Times report listed a half-dozen possible candidates to replace Esper should Trump win a second term, including Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton; former Army Vice Chief of Staff retired Gen. Jack Keane, a frequent Fox News contributor; Ryan McCarthy, the current Army secretary; and current Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett.
Also said to be on the list are two Republican senators who are in tight races and may not win reelection: Martha McSally of Arizona, who is a former A-10 squadron commander, and Joni Ernst of Iowa, who is also a military veteran.
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper arrive in New Delhi, India, today for “2+2” meetings with their Indian counterparts, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. Pompeo will also meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The visit comes at a time of rising tension between India and China, and as the U.S. has identified China as the greatest threat to U.S. interests.
AL QAEDA’S NO. 2 KILLED: Over the weekend, the Afghan’s intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security, tweeted that the country’s special forces killed al Qaeda’s number two commander for the Indian subcontinent in a recent operation in eastern Ghazni.
The tweet showed a grisly picture of the dead Husam Abd-al-Rauf, who went by the nom de guerre Abu Mohsin al-Masri, and said he had been living in Ghazni under the protection of the Taliban. “He was close to [Ayman] Al-Zawhiri & supported HQN & TB [Haqqani Network and Taliban] for years,” the tweet said. “The intel on him suggests he was fully aware of 9/11 attacks in the US.”
The head of the National Counter-Terrorism Center, Chris Miller, confirmed al-Masri’s death in a statement, saying his removal from the battlefield “is a major setback to a terrorist organization that is consistently experiencing strategic losses facilitated by the United States and its partners,” according to Reuters.
A CHANGE OF TUNE: That’s not exactly what Chris Miller said in a Washington Post op-ed last month when he called Ayman al-Zawahiri al Qaeda’s “sole remaining ideological leader,” points out Thomas Joscelyn, writing the Long War Journal.
“Miller implied just last month that characters such as Abd-al-Ra’uf were either unimportant, or didn’t even exist,” writes Joscelyn, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Zawahiri’s role was never purely ideological, and he isn’t the sole remaining al Qaeda leader, ideological or otherwise. A number of al Qaeda veterans remain active in the network’s hierarchy, including, until recently, Abd-al-Ra’uf.”
“Abd-al-Ra’uf’s demise is undoubtedly significant. He was a veteran jihadist, whose career began in the 1980s. He was a trusted subordinate for Zawahiri and served al Qaeda in senior roles, including in its propaganda arm, As Sahab,” Joscelyn argues. “But it is debatable whether his death, as well as other setbacks, add up to ‘strategic losses’ for al Qaeda in Afghanistan or elsewhere, as Miller claims.”
IN TOGETHER, OUT TOGETHER: As violence in Afghanistan continues to rise — a suicide attack Saturday in Kabul killed at least 18 people and wounded 57 — NATO continues to insist its departure from Afghanistan will be “conditions based” and coordinated with American forces.
“We decided to go into Afghanistan together; we will make decisions about future adjustments together; and we will leave together, when the time is right,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the conclusion of a two-day virtual defense ministerial Friday.
“The Taliban must reduce the unacceptable levels of violence. To pave the way for a ceasefire, they must break all ties with al Qaeda and other terrorist groups,” he said. “It is important to preserve the gains made over the last two decades with so much sacrifice, not least for women and girls, so that peace benefits every Afghan, and is sustainable in the long-term.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: China has announced its slapping sanctions on several U.S. defense contractors, including Boeing and Lockheed Martin, after the U.S. approved a $1.8 billion package of arms to Taiwan last week.
“In order to safeguard national interests, China decided to impose sanctions on the American companies that were involved in arms sales to Taiwan,” said a foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, according to the Associated Press.
Raytheon Technologies Corp. and “relevant American individuals” associated with the sales also will be affected, Zhao said at a regular news briefing, but he gave no details of what penalties might be imposed or when.
Last week, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress that the State Department had approved the possible sale of 135 Standoff Land Attack Missile Expanded Response missiles worth more than $1 billion, 11 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems M142 launchers for roughly $436 million, and six MS-110 reconnaissance pods for about $367 million dollars.
The Rundown
Wall Street Journal: U.S., India Seek To Counter China With Military Pact
Washington Examiner: ‘Once provoked, things will get ugly’: Xi Jinping implies that US rivalry could ‘lead to bloodshed’
Breaking Defense: As U.S. Military Moves Into Palau, China Watches Intently
South China Morning Post: Beijing Gives Cautious Welcome To Vladimir Putin’s Hint Over Russia-China Military Alliance
Washington Examiner: Iran blasts former ally Sudan over Israel normalization announcement
Washington Examiner: Two dead after Navy training plane crashes in Alabama
Air Force Magazine: USAF Pushes Safer F-16 Training After Contractor’s Death
AP: Attack in Kabul kills 18; al-Qaida leader killed in Ghazni
Washington Post: Taliban shows it can launch attacks anywhere across Afghanistan, even as peace talks continue
Washington Post: Our secret Taliban air force
Yonhap: 13 American USFK personnel test positive for COVID-19 upon arrival in S. Korea
The Drive: Japanese F-35As Train With USS America As Tokyo Looks Toward Its Aircraft Carrier Future
AP: UN: Nuclear weapons ban treaty to enter into force
New York Times: A Trump Victory May Push His Defense Secretary Out an Open Door
Task & Purpose: Marine Commandant To Leaders: Quit The ‘Soft Relief’ Of Fired Officers
Washington Post: U.S. arrest of former Mexican defense chief tests anti-drug alliance
Washington Post: U.S. Sanctions Russian Lab That Built What Experts Say Is Potentially The World’s Deadliest Hacking Tool
Defense.info: Opinion: Military Officers and Politics: Just say No
Calendar
MONDAY | OCTOBER 26
12 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual book discussion on “Net Assessment and Military Strategy,’ with author Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
2:30 p.m. — ”Ask Me Anything” event with Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics. https://www.youtube.com/watch
3 p.m. — Council on Foreign Relations virtual “Election 2020 U.S. Foreign Policy Forum,” with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; and: Richard Haass, CFR president and former special assistant to President George H.W. Bush. https://www.cfr.org/event/election-2020-us-foreign-policy-forum
3 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual book discussion on “Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime,” with co-author retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, and former commander of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan; co-author Nora Bensahel, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies’ Merrill Center; and Charles Perkins, director for U.S.-Israel security policy at JINSA. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
4 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “A U.S. Foreign Policy for the Middle Class,” with Daniel Price, co-founder and managing director of Rock Creek Global Advisors; Rozlyn Engel, nonresident scholar in the CEIP Geoeconomics and Strategy Program; and Jake Sullivan, nonresident senior fellow in the CEIP Geoeconomics and Strategy Program. https://carnegieendowment.org
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 27
7:45 a.m. — Atlantic Council East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue webinar on “the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance in an era of great power competition,” with Rep. Ted Yoho, R-Fla.; former Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Robert Dohner; and former Korean Minister for Trade Taeho Bark. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and Texas A&M University sponsor a virtual symposium on “Joint All-Domain Command and Control and All Domain Warfare,” with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown; Joint Chief of Staff Vice Chairman Gen. John Hyten; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of NORAD and USNORTHCOM. https://www.ndia.org/events
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Opening Doors: Embracing Diversity in National Security,” with Reja Younis, program manager in the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues; and Christine Brazeau, program manager of the CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation webcast: “The Fight to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine: The Inside Story of the Administration’s Operation Warp Speed,” with Army Gen. Gus Perna, chief operating officer for Operation Warp Speed; and Matthew Hepburn, M.D., head, vaccine development, Operation Warp Speed. https://www.heritage.org/public-health/event
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 28
9 a.m. — General Dynamics conference call webcast to release third-quarter 2020 financial results. https://www.gd.com/
10 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Korean Policy Forum: “U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations in the Post-Abe Era,” with Emma Chanlett-Avery, Asian affairs specialist at the Congressional Research Service; James Schoff, senior fellow at the Carnegie Asia Program; Yong-Chool Ha, professor at the University of Washington Jackson School of International Studies; Celeste Arrington, GWU associate professor of political science and international affairs; and Yonho Kim, associate director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-rok-japan-trilateral-relations
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute webinar U.S.-Mideast issues, with former Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Derek Chollet. https://www.mei.edu/events
10:30 a.m. — The Boeing Company releases financial results for the third quarter of 2020, with President and CEO David Calhoun and CFO Greg Smith, executive vice president of enterprise operations. https://investors.boeing.com/investors
10 :30 a.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “America’s National Security Challenges, Today and Tomorrow,” with national security adviser Robert O’Brien; and Arthur Herman, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. — The Association of the U.S. Army AUSA Noon Report webinar, with Maj. Gen. Kevin Vereen, commanding general of U.S. Army Recruiting Command. AUSA membership is not required. Register at https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/SA-Noon-Report
12:15 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and Texas A&M University virtual symposium: “Joint All-Domain Command and Control and All Domain Warfare,” with Timothy Grayson, director of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency’s Strategic Technology Office; and David Spirk, chief data officer at the Defense Department. https://www.ndia.org/events
12:30 p.m. — Center for the National Interest webinar: “Time to Accept North Korea As a Nuclear Weapons State?” with Graham Allison professor of government at Harvard University; Ted Galen Carpenter, senior fellow at the CATO institute; Joseph DeTrani, is a former special envoy for six party talks with North Korea; Robert Gallucci was the chief U.S. negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis of 1994; and moderated by Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett and Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond speaker Space Foundation’s Space Symposium. https://spacesymposium365.org/agenda/featured-speakers
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Transatlantic Cooperation in the Era of Artificial Intelligence,” with Deputy NATO Secretary General Mircea Geoana; Eric Schmidt, co-founder of Schmidt Futures and chair of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; Margrethe Vestager, executive vice president of the European Commission’s A Europe Fit for the Digital Age; and former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work; vice chair of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: :”Air Force Pilot Retention: New Recommendations for an Enduring Crisis,” with Lt. Col. Jeffrey Schneider, program manager of the Defense Innovation Unit; Timothy Kane, research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution; and Tobias Switzer, military fellow in the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event-air-force-pilot-retention
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 29
9 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar: “Warfighter and Intelligence Mission Success,” as part of the National Security series. https://awsnatsecseries.com/register/
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue pre-recorded webcast: “The Movement Toward Greater Integration in Naval Warfare,” with Vice Adm. James Kilby, deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities; Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commander of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, publisher and CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event-update
10 a.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion with Heidi Shyu, former assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology. https://www.uschamber.com/event
11 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and the Aerospace Industries Association webinar: “2020 Joint NDIA/AIA Industrial Security,” with William Lietzau, director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency; Lisa Loss, suitability executive agent programs director at the Office of Personnel Management; and Brian Dunbar, assistant director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center’s Special Security Directorate. https://www.ndia.org/events
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 30
2 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar on “Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime, with co-author retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, former commander of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan; and co-author Nora Bensahel, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies’ Merrill Center. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
5:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion “Airmen in the Fight: AFA Roll Call” with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We decided to go into Afghanistan together; we will make decisions about future adjustments together; and we will leave together, when the time is right.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the conclusion of a two-day virtual defense ministerial Friday.
