POMPEO: ‘DARE TO HOPE’: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is back from a whirlwind visit to Doha, Qatar, where he presided over the first face-to-face peace talks between the Taliban and the U.S.-backed Afghan government.
The talks, made possible by an agreement between the United States and the Taliban in February, represent the best chance to end nearly two decades of war in Afghanistan, and Pompeo, who met separately with both sides, urged the bitter antagonist to “seize the moment.”
“Today is truly a momentous occasion,” Pompeo said. “Afghans have at long last chosen to sit together and chart a new course for your country. This is a moment that we must dare to hope.”
AL QAEDA ‘ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE’: Talking to reporters on his plane en route to the talks, Pompeo said the peace talks were possible because of the “enormous blood and American treasure” expended to help the Afghans take down al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which he called “a tremendous success.”
That view was echoed in an op-ed last week by Christopher Miller, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, who said al Qaeda is “on the verge of collapse,” with what’s left of its forces “in disarray and focused simply on survival.”
“My assessment now is that al-Qaeda is in crisis,” Miller wrote. “The group’s leadership has been severely diminished by U.S. attacks. Its sole remaining ideological leader is Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s deputy on 9/11, who lives in hiding, no doubt fully aware of his vulnerability. If he is lucky, he will die of natural causes. “Otherwise, the long arm of the United States will inevitably find him and bring him to justice.”
PEACE NOT YET AT HAND: “Let’s be clear: These talks are a major milestone. Many expected them never to happen. Even the most hardened skeptic of the idea of peace in Afghanistan has to recognize the launch of these talks as the watershed they are,” says Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program.
“The Trump administration likely wants a peace deal in place by the November election. That sounds like a mighty tall order given that the duration of talks like these tends to be measured in years, not weeks or months,” Kugelman cautions.
HEADING TO ZERO: The U.S. troop withdrawals announced last week by U.S. Central Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie are central to President Trump’s pledge to “end endless wars.” McKenzie said the U.S. will reduce force levels in Iraq from 5,200 to 3,000 troops this month and in Afghanistan from 8,600 to approximately 4,500 troops by early November.
Bradley Bowman, a defense analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warns further reductions risk a resurgence of al Qaeda and other terrorist groups that under the new National Defense Strategy are secondary threats after China and Russia.
“Secondary threats — especially ones that are neglected — can still kill Americans,” Bowman writes. “That is certainly true of the Islamist terrorist threat.”
“The actual lesson the Taliban/AQ may be learning now is be patient, tell the Americans what they want to hear, keep attacking their troops and partners, smile at @US4AfghanPeace & the US will draw down & eventually leave,” Bowman argues in a long Twitter thread. “Once the U.S. military withdraws from Afghanistan, Islamist terrorists there will then be able to fully target the Afghan government and create the breathing space to launch international terrorist attacks on the US and our allies.”
“Retaining the necessary economy-of-force military deployments in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria can help secure a significant grand strategic good — namely, preventing another 9/11-style attack or the reemergence of an ISIS caliphate,” he says. “Accomplishing such objectives would help prevent a major new war involving the large-scale deployment of U.S. service members and resources to the Middle East.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett and Air Force chief of staff Gen. Charles Brown headline the opening day of the Air Force Association Virtual 2020 Air, Space, and Cyber Conference. Barrett speaks at 9:15 a.m., Brown at 10 a.m.
LATER TODAY: Trump travels to McClellan Park, a former air base just outside Sacramento, California, to be briefed on the state’s raging wildfires and to meet with California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
At a rally in Nevada on Saturday, Trump said the unprecedented fires, which have killed at least 35 people, destroyed thousands of homes, and scorched 4.6 million acres, are “about forest management,” while West Coast governors and mayors blame climate change.
“This is not about just forest management or raking,” said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti on CNN’s State of the Union program on Sunday. “Anybody who lives here in California is insulted by that, quite frankly. And he keeps perpetuating this lie.”
On the same show, White House adviser Peter Navarro said, “What we have seen in California — and I have seen this firsthand — is that for many, many years, particularly because of budget cutbacks, there was no inclination to manage our forests. That’s actually a real issue.”
ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets here in Washington with Qatari Deputy Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani and Finance Minister Ali Sharif al Emadi for the third annual U.S.-Qatar Strategic Dialogue. Pompeo delivers opening remarks at 9 a.m. Livestream at https://www.state.gov.
MEANWHILE IN MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a “working meeting” with embattled Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko today, the Kremlin has announced.
SNOWDEN NOT ASKING FOR A PARDON: Former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, who says his leaking of secrets in 2013 was an act of whistleblowing, not treason, says he’s had no contact with the White House and is not asking for a pardon from Trump.
In an interview with MSNBC’s Brian Williams, Snowden, who lives in exile in Moscow, said Trump’s recent comments about a possible pardon for him took him by surprise. “There was a pardon campaign back during the Obama administration, but I at no point actually asked for pardon myself,” said Snowden. “My condition for return is simply a fair trial.”
Snowden has been charged with violating the Espionage Act for leaking classified documents about vast government surveillance, but last month, Trump floated the idea of a pardon, saying that while he was “not that aware of the Snowden situation,” he’s “going to start looking at it.”
“It seems to be a split decision,” Trump said Aug. 15. “Many people think that he should be somehow treated differently, and other people think he did very bad things.”
After Trump’s comments, Attorney General William Barr said he would be “vehemently opposed” to a pardon. Snowden insists that under the provisions of the Espionage Act, legitimate whistleblowers can’t get a fair trial.
“A pardon is intended to ameliorate unfairness, to fix fundamental flaws in our system of laws or the way they are being applied,” Snowden said. “And there is nowhere this is more clear right now than in the prosecution of whistleblowers under the Espionage Act.”
US CHINA AMBASSADOR LEAVING: It appears Terry Branstad’s time as U.S. ambassador to China is coming to an end.
“I thank Ambassador Terry Branstad for his more than three years of service to the American people as U.S. Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China,” tweeted his boss, Pompeo, early this morning, in the kind of praise one gives someone leaving an assignment. “Ambassador Branstad has contributed to rebalancing U.S.-China relations so that it is results-oriented, reciprocal, and fair. This will have lasting, positive effects on U.S. foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific for decades to come,” Pompeo said.
No reason for the departure was given, but the Associated Press noted that “Branstad was embroiled in a recent controversy when China’s official People’s Daily newspaper rejected an opinion column that he had written” but added that “it wasn’t clear whether his apparent departure was related to the piece.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US in ‘phase two’ of Taliban deal to exit Afghanistan before next 9/11 anniversary
Washington Examiner: US defends release of ‘most dangerous’ Taliban prisoners in peace talks push
Washington Examiner: Russia and Turkey employ thousands of Syrian mercenaries to fight in Libya
Washington Examiner: Iran and Turkey blast ‘shameful’ Israel-Bahrain normalization deal
Washington Examiner: Chad Wolf: Whistleblower complaint claiming DHS downplayed threats from Russia is ‘absolutely’ false
AP: Trump’s Talk Of Secret New Weapon Fits A Pattern Of Puzzles
AP: Chinese Military Calls U.S. Biggest Threat To World Peace
AP: Source: Oracle wins TikTok over Microsoft in Trump-urged bid
New York Times: Japan’s Next Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, Emerges From Behind the Curtain
Politico: Officials: Iran Weighs Plot To Kill U.S. Ambassador To South Africa
USNI News: U.S. Forces Korea CO: North Korea Showing No Signs of Regime Instability
Stars and Stripes: South Korea Dials Down Coronavirus Restrictions As Numbers Decline
Air Force Magazine: Space Force Looks at Readiness Through Fresh Eyes
Military.com: She Once Was Barred from Fighter Jets. Now She’s the Pentagon’s Only Female Four-Star
Task & Purpose: On this 9/11 anniversary, America is far from unified
New York Times: Eisenhower Memorial, Delayed by Design Disputes, Opens This Week
Washington Post: Philippines Deports Marine Who Killed Trans Woman
New York Times: Israelis Sense Mideast Shift
The Economist: How An Overpriced Warplane Complicates Diplomacy In The Middle East
AP: Trump’s Mideast deals tout ‘peace’ where there was never war
Washington Examiner: Opinion: An Afghanistan peace deal is not worth the wait
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Three NATO lessons in the Arctic
Calendar
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 14
9 a.m. — Day one of the Air Force Association 2020 Virtual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown, Gen. Timothy Ray, commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces; Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa. Full agenda at: https://www.afa.org/events/calendar/2020-09-14/air-space-cyber-conference
9 a.m. 2201 C Street N.W. — State Department hosts third annual U.S.-Qatar Strategic Dialogue, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo welcomes Qatari Deputy Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Finance Minister Ali Sharif Al Emadin. Livestream at https://www.state.gov/
9:30 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2E973 — Adm. Charles Richard, commander U.S. Strategic Command, will hold an on-camera, on the record press briefing to provide an update on the command’s mission and readiness during the COVID-19 pandemic. Livestream at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/
12 p.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “U.S.-Gulf Relations After the Presidential Election.” https://www.mei.edu/events/us-gulf-relations
4 p.m. 2201 C Street N.W. — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds an on-camera, on-the-record press briefing. Livestream at https://www.state.gov/
4 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Polar Institute webcast: “The U.S. Air Force Arctic Strategy, Alaska, and the New Arctic,” with Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; and Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
4:30 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual book discussion on Becoming Kim Jong Un – A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator, with author Jung Pak, senior fellow in the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies and former deputy national intelligence officer at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar-becoming-kim-jong-un
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 15
9 a.m. — Day two of the Air Force Association 2020 Virtual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond; Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; and others. Full agenda at: https://www.afa.org/events/calendar/2020-09-14/air-space-cyber-conference
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his recent trip to Central and Eastern Europe. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
10 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “ Transatlantic Cooperation in the COVID-19 Era and Beyond,” with Netherlands Minister of Foreign Affairs Stef Blok. https://www.heritage.org/europe/event
1 p.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Addressing the Legacy of Department of Defense use of PFAS: Protecting Our Communities and Implementing Reform,” with Maureen Sullivan, deputy assistant secretary of defense acquisition and sustainment; Terry Rauch, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense health readiness and policy oversight; Herb Nelson, director, Strategic Environment Research and Development Program. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Defense Policy and the 2020 Election,” with Jessica Mathews, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Frank Rose, senior fellow at Brookings; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events/defense-policy
3 p.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual launch of the new Center for Freedom and Democracy. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers keynote remarks, followed by a panel discussion “Retooling Westminster: Advancing Freedom in the 21st Century.” with Reagan Institute Director Roger Zakheim, Amb. Mark Green and Kenneth Wollack with the National Endowment for Democracy. https://www.reaganfoundation.org/programs-events/events-calendar
3 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Operational Energy Across the Atlantic: U.S. Military and NATO Perspectives,” with Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Operational Energy Roberto Guerrero; former Assistant Defense Secretary for Operational Energy Sharon Burke, senior adviser in the New America International Security Program; Lt. Gen. Eric Wesley, former director of U.S. Army Futures Command’s Futures and Concepts Center; and Julijus Grubliauskas, staff officer in the NATO Hybrid Challenges and Energy Security Section. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 16
8:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “Japan’s New Leader Faces China Threat and Other Challenges,” with Tobias Harris, senior vice president of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA; Jeffrey Hornung, political scientist at the Rand Corporation; Mireya Solis, chair in Japan studies at the Brookings Institution; and Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/virtual-event
9 a.m. — National Democratic Institute webinar: “Democracy, Technology and China: U.S. Strategy for Innovation in the 21st Century,” with Senate Intelligence Vice Chair Mark Warner, D-Va.; former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, chairman of NDI; and Derek Mitchell, president of NDI. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Defense Secretary Mark Esper delivers remarks to the Air Force Association’s Air, Space and Cyber Conference webcast. https://www.afa.org/events
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “The Eisenhower Legacy in Space,” with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine; Susan Eisenhower, CEO and chairman of the Eisenhower Group; and Todd Harrison, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
1 p.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance and the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Army Lt. Gen. Bob Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander of the U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency; Christopher Scolese, director, National Reconnaissance Office; and Vice Adm. Bob Sharp, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; and Johny Sawyer, chief of staff at the Defense Intelligence Agency https://intelsummit.org/
2 p.m. — McCain Institute “Authors & Insights Book Talk Series”: “Foreign Policy Crossroads: Where We Are and How We Got Here,” with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, author of Hell and Other Destinations: A 21st Century Memoir, and Mark Green. https://asu.zoom.us
6 p.m. — Politics and Prose bookstore book discussion webcast on The Spymasters: How the CIA Directors Shape History and the Future, with author Chris Whipple, CEO of CCWHIP Productions. https://www.politics-prose.com/event
7 p.m. — Curious Iguana bookstore online book discussion on The Liberation of Marguerite Harrison: America’s First Female Foreign Intelligence Agent, with author Elizabeth Atwood, associate professor of journalism at Hood College and former Baltimore Sun reporter and editor. https://www.facebook.com/events/593182521367709
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 17
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Should Europe Go Its Own Way?” focusing on the European Union, with Kateryna Smagliy, division chief at the Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine; Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University; former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, fellow at the Atlantic Council; former French Ambassador to the United States Gerard Araud; Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of the National Interest; and Benjamin Haddad, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Europe Initiative. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/should-europe-go-its-own-way
1 p.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing: “Interim Review of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Effort and Recommendations,” with Eric Schmidt, chairman, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Robert Work, vice chairman, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; Mignon Clyburn, commissioner, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; José-Marie Griffiths, commissioner, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Information Warfare: U.S. Competition with China,” with Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas; and Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
1 p.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance and the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Melvin Carter, intelligence director at the Marine Corps; Space Force Brig. Gen. Leah Lauderback, intelligence director at the Space Force; Army Maj. Gen. Kate Leahy, assistant deputy chief of staff for intelligence at the Army; Air Force Lt. Gen. Mary O’Brien, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations at the Air Force; Coast Guard Rear Adm. Andrew Sugimoto, assistant commandant for intelligence at the Coast Guard; and Navy Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare in the Office of the Director of Naval Intelligence; Doug Cossa, deputy CIO of the Defense Intelligence Agency; Sue Dorr, CIO in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Army Brig. Gen. Jeth Rey, director of command and control, communications and computer systems at the U.S. Central Command; and Greg Smithberger, CIO director of the National Security Agency Capabilities Directorate. https://intelsummit.org/
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 18
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Belarus and Democracy in Europe,” with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius; Vladimir Kara-Murza, chairman of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom; Hanna Liubakova, journalist at Outriders; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 21
12 p.m. — Day one of New America and Arizona State University Future Security Forum, a four-day virtual event reimagining national security in the age of COVID-19, with retired Gen. Joseph Votel, former U.S. Central Commander; Michèle Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; Bonnie Jenkins, founder and president, Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation; Helene Gayle, MD, member, Committee on Equitable Allocation of Vaccine for the Novel Coronavirus, National Academies; Michael Osterholm, director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota. https://www.newamerica.org/conference/future-security-forum-2020/
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 22
1 p.m. — Virtual Book launch of Adaptation Under Fire, with co-authors retired Lt. Gen. David Barno and Nora Bensahel, with discussion by Kori Schake, AEI; Karl Mueller, RAND; Richard Lacquement, U.S. Army War College; moderated by Jim Goldgeier. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/adaptation-under-fire
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 23
9:30 a.m. SD-562, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness and Management Support hearing on “Navy and Marine Corps Readiness,” with Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 25
10 a.m. — “Hack at the Harbor” virtual security conference sponsored by Point3 Security, with speakers including Chris Krebs, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Department of Homeland Security. https://hackattheharbor.com/
11:30 a.m. — Approximately 70 World War II aircraft will fly over the Washington Mall in two-minute intervals in historically sequenced warbird formations representing the major World War II battles. More than 20 different types of vintage military aircraft are scheduled to take part, including the P-40 Warhawk, P-39 Airacobra, P-38 Lightning, P-51 Mustang, P-47 Thunderbolt, F4U Corsair, B-25 Mitchell, B-17 Flying Fortress, B-29 Superfortress. https://ww2flyover.org/
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I promise you will not win this war by dropping bombs on terrorists alone. The key to winning this war is to provide capability to those who have the will to fight back. They key to winning this war is giving a young woman over there a say about the future of her children.”
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in a speech to cadets at the Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina, about what he learned from 19 years of war in Afghanistan.
