As the count of coronavirus cases across the United States rises, falls, and rises again, depending on the occurrence of crowd-generating events, the responding economy follows a similar pattern. Whether it be an annual gathering of Harley-Davidson enthusiasts, students celebrating the return to campus after a somewhat-confined set of summer activities, or cheering fans, though limited in number, at a fall football game, we can expect the count of new coronavirus cases to fluctuate.

As the count goes up, public health officials respond by tightening the rules for business openings and closings. The waxing and waning of precautionary rules generate a hesitating, eddy-current economy, one in which it becomes difficult to determine if the tide of economic activity is going out or coming in.