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USHERING IN THE SMITH ERA: The takeover of the House by Democrats is just three weeks away, a power shift that will dramatically change the dynamic for passing bipartisan legislation and set up a number of confrontations with President Trump. A key player will be Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash, who is set take the gavel of the House Armed Services Committee from Rep. Mac Thornberry R-Texas. The future House Armed Services chairman shared his thinking on a wide range of issues during an on-the-record breakfast with defense reporters yesterday morning. Some highlights include:
SELLING A SMALLER BUDGET: Smith signaled his biggest fight may be over the Pentagon’s budget, which he says will hinge on a strategy of convincing the American public the military can protect the country for less. Especially now that it’s reported President Trump is behind a $750 billion defense top line, after meeting with Defense Secretary Mattis and Republican leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees. “We are not going to be able to be successful in arguing that we can survive and prosper and have strong national security for less money unless we can make the argument,” he told reporters. One of Mattis’ go-to arguments against defense spending cuts is that the “America can afford survival,” as he put it at Reagan National Defense Forum earlier this month. “Cutting defense will not close the deficit,” he argued. Smith has a ready rejoinder. “We can do it for less money,” he insisted. “What do we mean by ‘we can afford survival?’ Are the Russians really planning on launching an all-out war against us? Or the Chinese? If they are, it would be news to everybody at this table,” Smith said. “We’ve got to move past that sort of rhetoric and get down to an actual number. So, when I saw the $750 billion, to be perfectly honest with you, my reaction was they’re just pulling a number out of the air. I want to see the justification for it.” THE READINESS CRISIS: Smith and Democrats backing him will face strong pushback from Pentagon officials and military leaders, who argue the U.S. is nowhere close to digging out of the readiness hole it’s been in after years of spending caps forced by sequestration. A recent National Defense Strategy Commission report warned the U.S. could lose a war with Russia or China, and Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie, nominee to head the U.S. Central Command told Congress at his confirmation hearing that anything less than $733 billion increases risk to the country. Yesterday, at a Senate hearing, Navy Secretary Richard Spencer said a return to budget austerity would be “devastating in many ways.” “First, right off the bat, the money that you gave us in ’17, ’18, and ’19 … we are doing some very unique and trailblazing efforts to really get us back on our feet, into the fight at fighting weight,” Spencer said. “We’re on the bicycle, pedaling. It took us a while to get up. This would just knock us down, flat down.” BUT $750 BILLION? “There is a mountain of evidence that we can more than survive for less than $750 billion,” Smith said in response. “I’ve got the Army telling me when they decided to take a look at where they’ve been spending their money, they found $31 billion they didn’t need to be spending, OK? I’ve got a notion that is widely accepted that the Pentagon does not necessarily spend its money wisely and efficiently,” Smith said. “I’ve got the idea that the military industrial complex has the incentive to try to tell you that you need to spend more money on defense, but that incentive does not necessarily translate into national security needs, it simply translates into money.” BLOCKING A MILITARY BORDER WALL: Smith has also been a critic of Trump’s deployment of active-duty troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, calling it an irresponsible use of Pentagon resources. He said Wednesday there is support among Democrats and Republicans for legislation barring the president from making good on his latest threat Tuesday to tap the military to build a border wall, and it could be added into next year’s National Defense Authorization Act. “We can certainly put legislation in that says no Department of Defense money should go toward the wall and that would preclude using our soldiers as part of the effort to build it. I think there is some bipartisan support for that idea, precisely because Republicans see greater defense needs,” Smith said. But he downplayed concerns that Trump may try to use part of his massive $750 billion budget request to fund his signature initiative. “I don’t think there’s wall funding in that $750 billion number. The president will send up his budget and we’ll see, and if there is wall funding, we’ll all flip out and say, ‘We can’t do that,’” he said. Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: One day after the House leaders heard from CIA Director Gina Haspel in person about agency’s assessment of the degree of involvement of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mattis are expected to brief the full House. The appearance behind closed doors comes as senators voted yesterday to begin debate on a proposal that would, for the first time, invoke the War Powers Act to put a check on the president’s use of military force abroad. Lawmakers voted 60-39 to begin debate on a resolution to invoke the 1973 law to stop U.S. support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen. House Speaker Paul Ryan immediately maneuvered to block the action. The Wisconsin Republican pushed language through the House that will prevent lawmakers from taking up any resolution to end U.S. support for the war in Yemen this year. But Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J. says Ryan is only delaying the inevitable. Once Democrats control the House, a bill that passes the Senate with 60 votes, will easily get through the House. “We will go right back to this at the beginning of the next Congress, and I hope to do something even more significant,” Menendez, ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told CNN. Menendez is allied with Sens. Lindsey Graham R-S.C., Todd Young R-Ind., and Chris Murphy D-Conn. in supporting legislation to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia, and stop the transfer of all but defensive weapons to the Kingdom. CAREENING TOWARD A SHUTDOWN: The same voting dynamic is at play with the standoff over a partial government shutdown. Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer says if Trump carries out his threat to shut down the 25 percent of the federal government still not funded, over his demands for $5 billion in border wall funding, the Democrats will just wait until Jan 3. Once Democrats take the House majority that day, the chamber could pass a funding bill and dare Senate Republicans to kill it, or President Trump to veto it. IT’S ONLY A PARTIAL SHUTDOWN: The Defense Department is fully funded, as is 75 percent of federal government. So, who would be affected? The staff of Sen. Patrick Leahy D-Vt. has compiled a list of what it says will be 420,000 essential federal employees who will have to work without pay until Congress and the president find a solution. That includes more than 41,000 federal law enforcement and correctional officers. Among them:
Up To 88 Percent Of Department of Homeland Security employees, Including:
And as many as 5,000 Forest Service firefighters, and 3,600 Weather Service forecasters POMPEO TO UN: ‘BAN IRAN MISSILE TESTS’: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in a speech to the U.N. Security Council yesterday, called on the world body to bar Iran from conducting further ballistic missile tests. “It is clear that the Iranian regime’s ballistic missile activity has grown since the nuclear deal. Iran has exploited the goodwill of nations and defied multiple Security Council resolutions in its quest for a robust ballistic missile force. The United States will never stand for this,” Pompeo said in his U.N. address. Pompeo argued it’s time to reimpose restrictions previously imposed by United Nations resolution 1929. “Iran has been on a testing spree and a proliferation spree and this must come to an end,” Pompeo told reporters after his speech. “We want to work with all members of the Security Council to reimpose tougher restrictions on the Iranian ballistic missiles. The restrictions that were in place under UNSCR 1929 are the place that the world needs to be today. This threat is real and upon us.” ‘A STRETCH GOAL’: “It is a stretch goal, senator, but it is a stretch goal we will take,” is how Navy Secretary Richard Spencer responded to testimony yesterday from the GAO that defense Secretary Mattis’ directive to the military services to bring at least 80 percent of aviation fleet to “mission-capable” status by the end of next year will be difficult to achieve. In testimony before a joint session of two Senate Armed Services subcommittees, John Pendleton, the GAO’s director of defense capabilities and management, cited the low availability rate of the military’s newest stealth fighter, the F-35 as an example of how ambitious that goal is. “When we looked at the F-35 last year, it had a 15 percent fully mission-capable rate,” Pendleton testified. INHOFE’S DEFENSE STOCKS: News broke on Sunday that Trump had embraced the $750 billion defense budget after urging by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Inhofe, and the next day his financial advisor moved to buy $50,000-$100,000 worth of Raytheon stocks, The Daily Beast reported. Within minutes of a media request for comment, Inhofe dashed off a request for the advisor to cancel the buy, which had been publicly reported by the Senate but had not been fully completed. Raytheon and other defense stocks jumped on Monday following the budget news, even as the larger market dropped. “Federal lawmakers are prohibited from trading stock based on non-public information. But since news of Trump’s massive Pentagon budget request was already public when Inhofe purchased the stock, it likely would not have run afoul of congressional insider trading laws even if Inhofe himself were behind the transaction,” according to the news site. The chairman, who could steer a major spending hike through the Senate, had been unaware of the planned Raytheon stock purchase, his office said. RED STORM RISING: Chinese spying threatens “not just the future of the United States, but the future of the world,” a senior FBI official told lawmakers yesterday. “We are being exploited by China, so we are right to shore up our defenses against this,” E.W. Priestap, assistant director of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, told the Senate Judiciary Committee. “Our efforts must inspire other nations to preserve similar systems. We must persuade them to choose freedom, reciprocity, and the rule of law. What hangs in the balance is not just the future of the United States, but the future of the world.” Priestap, who is due to retire at the end of this month, painted a dire picture of Chinese spycraft, warning that the Communist regime uses an array of unconventional intelligence assets to pilfer American secrets both from the government and the private sector. He urged lawmakers to brace for “a hypercompetitive world” in which China uses economic theft to cement their status as a major international power. NEW FOUR-STAR: The Pentagon announced yesterday that Air Force Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch has been nominated by the president for promotion the rank of general, and assigned as commander, Air Force Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. Bunch is currently serving as military deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Pentagon, Washington, District of Columbia. JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS: New Issue of pro-ISIS magazine “Youth of the Caliphate,” has re-published posters encouraging jihadis to carry out attacks In Washington, London, Paris, Rome, and Sydney, according to a group that monitors terrorist propaganda. The magazine includes several previously released posters encouraging jihadis to carry out operations in the U.S., Europe, Australia, and other locations, reports the Middle East Media Research Institute. For example, one of the posters shows a church with a message urging the “monotheists” in the U.S., Europe, Egypt, and all other the countries to “behead the worshippers of the cross and burn down their churches.” Another poster shows a jihadi looking at a map next to pictures showing Big Ben in London, the Sydney Opera House, the Eiffel Tower, and the Colosseum in Rome with text reading: “Terrorize them in their homeland. Don’t hesitate! Choose your target carefully and rely on Allah.” SNOWBALL EXPRESS: More than 650 families are being sent to Disney World this year as part of Snowball Express, a program aimed at helping Gold Star families enjoy the holiday season. The program, which started in 2006 but was launched just last year as part of the Gary Sinise Foundation, has 1,722 participants this year, according to an Instagram post. THE RUNDOWN Newsweek: U.S. Special Operation Forces Issues Ethics Guidance After ‘Inexcusable and Reprehensible Violations’ Including Alleged War Crimes CNN: Russia claims accused spy was ‘tortured’ in US custody, but doesn’t provide evidence Foreign Policy: Washington Wants Pyongyang to Choose: Humanitarian Aid or Nukes Navy Times: Navy improving 7th Fleet, but sailors work 100-hour weeks, lack sleep, watchdog warns New York Times: Putin’s Stasi ID Is Found in German Archive Defense News: Pentagon taps new head of Air Force Materiel Command |
CalendarTHURSDAY | DEC. 13 8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Hypersonics Senior Executive Series with Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan and Under Secretary Michael Griffin. ndia.org 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Targeted Sanctions on Human Rights Abusers and Kleptocracies: Lessons Learned and Opportunities from the Global Magnitsky Sanctions with Sen. Ben Cardin. csis.org 9:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. National Security Advisor John Bolton to Unveil Trump Administration Africa Strategy. heritage.org 9:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How Can U.S. Foreign Policymakers Do Better for the Middle Class? carnegieendowment.org 2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Humanitarian and National Security Crisis in Yemen: An Update and Path Forward with Sen. Todd Young. csis.org 3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. U.S. Force Posture in North Central Europe: Adapting to Strategic Realities. atlanticcouncil.org 5 p.m. Book Launch of “Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict” with Author Jacob Shapiro. csis.org 5 p.m. 700 F St. NW. Cocktails and Conversation – The Human Machine Team: The Analyst of Today and Tomorrow. Susan Kalweit, director, Analysis, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, participates. Defenseone.com FRIDAY | DEC. 14 6:45 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special Topic Breakfast with Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. navyleague.org 9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. 2018 Cato Institute Surveillance Conference. cato.org MONDAY | DEC. 17 10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. China’s Belt and Road in Context. heritage.org Noon. 1030 15th St. NW. The Future of US Policy in Syria. atlanticcouncil.org TUESDAY | DEC. 18 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Mitchell Hour AFWIC and Future Force Design with Maj. Gen. Clint Crosier, Director of Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. China 2018 Year in Review: A New Cold War? wilsoncenter.org 2:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Is There Any Hope for Yemen? wilsoncenter.org |
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